NFL Week 7 Preview: Fantasy football advice, betting tips and matchups to watch | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics – Pro Football Focus

PFF previews the 14 NFL games in Week 7, highlighting storylines to watch while also taking a fantasy football and betting approach to offer insight for every NFL fan.

After what can only be described as a disastrous start, Philadelphias season is now actually looking up simply because Wentz has dragged himself out of the funk he was in to begin the year.

Wentz didnt earn a PFF grade above 57.0 for the first three games and looked completely unable to accurately pass the football at times, but he hasnt graded below 66.0 since that time, despite playing against two of the toughest defenses in the league.

Philadelphia was beaten by better teams in the Ravens and Steelers, but the Giants represent a much more beatable opposition. The Eagles will have a huge advantage if Wentz can continue this improved form, even with his team's current injury crisis.

There are certainly worse teams out there on the back end, but the Giants are below average in terms of passer rating allowed in coverage, giving up a rating of 102.9 to opposing passers so far this season, around 30 points higher than Wentz's rating through six games. The Giants are also not particularly well suited to attacking Wentzs lack of supporting cast, with just three players who have double-digit total pressures on the season and interior lineman Dalvin Tomlinson posting the best pass-rushing grade (72.0) on the team.

Travis Fulgham has been a monster for the Philadelphia Eagles over the past three weeks. Over that span, he ranks sixth in yards per route run and has commanded a whopping 25% target share. The Eagles will likely get DeSean Jackson back in the lineup for this Week 7 matchup but will also be without Miles Sanders and Zach Ertz. The targets should continue to come Fulghams way and, hopefully for his sake, Jacksons presence will lessen the likelihood of shadow coverage from James Bradberry. He owns PFFs fifth-highest coverage grade among CBs, but Fulgham has proved he wont back down in tough matchups. The Eagles wide receiver owns the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade this season.

Considering this matchup further, Bradberry has a 71.1 PFF grade in man coverage 71.1, so the slight favors Fulgham based on his PFF grade versus man coverage (87.7).

The bottom line: Chase Fulghams targets and start him on Thursday night. The Giants have allowed the third-most receptions to wide receivers this season.

Boston Scott will draw the start without Sanders and should be viewed as a startable low-end RB2. He operated as the primary option in Week 1 (nine carries for 35 yards, two catches for 19) and played 80% of the snaps in the second half of last week's contest.

The matchup is tough for Scott as a rusher the Giants boast PFFs fifth-best run defense. But he should still be a solid floor play based on his work as a receiver. The Giants have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs this season.

Its also worth noting that Scott torched the Giants last season. In his two games against them (including one start), Scott averaged 19.5 touches, two touchdowns, 133 yards from scrimmage and six targets.

While the Eagles offense has been decimated by injury, their defense has fared much better. The Philadelphia defense has been relatively good at stopping the run. Devonta Freeman has seen a high percentage of the Giants playing time but has yet to top 3.5 yards per carry in a game. He should see plenty of volume but probably wont be all that efficient per carry.

In the passing game, the Giants top receivers will be high-risk, high-reward options this week. The Eagles have a top-three pass rush grade this season while the Giants have the lowest pass-blocking grade, so Daniel Jones will constantly be under pressure. If he can get the ball out, then Evan Engram is most likely to have a big game. Philadelphia has given up the most fantasy points to a tight end twice. With how much Jones will be under pressure, Engram and the running backs will see a lot of the targets.

Thursday Night Football brings the heat once again. The spread for this NFC East matchup has been all one-sided, with the Eagles moving down from 8.5-point favorites in the preseason to -6 to start the week before settling at -4. The ticket percentage skews slightly toward the Eagles, but the majority of cash has been on the Giants. This line movement is based on big bettors favoring the road dog in this matchup.

The total has dropped two points since the open behind 72% of the cash percentage on the under. This total has a big bettors vs. public bettors skew percentage, with the market movement siding with the sharp side. Both offenses rank in the bottom third of our opponent-adjusted offensive rankings, with injuries continuing to pile up on both offensive units.

The total offers no real value, but an overcorrection is possible if this market continues to move. PFF's predictive models (PFF Greenline) sees some opportunity on both the spread and moneyline, which is a great way to add betting intrigue to this Thursday night matchup.

There was a pretty strong narrative that the Dallas Cowboys offense would be fine with Dalton at quarterback, but that didn't seem like the case on Monday night.

Daltons prime-time record is not good in his career, and this was another disappointment under the bright lights. He emerged with an overall PFF grade of 60.5, 25 points worse than his cameo in relief of an injured Prescott a week ago and some way short of his Bengals performance the last time he had a group of receivers as good as this.

It wasnt all Daltons fault, as the team was thrown into a hole early by a pair of Ezekiel Elliott fumbles, but Dalton wasnt hitting the passes he did last week until it was too late.

Against Washington, we will get a better idea of whether that was a likely look at the future or if Dalton just had a bad day. His receivers are elite, but the pass protection will be a problem, even if he was hurried on just 17 of 51 dropbacks against Arizona. We have seen too much capable play from Dalton to believe that the entire offense will fall apart with him at the helm, but Monday night's matchup was proof that the gap between him and Dak Prescott may be wider than many expected.

The Dallas Cowboys defense continues to struggle, and that means we need to continue to target offenses that play them weekly. They rank inside the bottom-12 in terms of fantasy points allowed against every position in fantasy football (including DST), so this a situation as simple as play all the dudes.

Kyle Allen is available on waiver wires and can be easily streamed in this matchup. Running back Antonio Gibson is a great buy-low target ahead of this game and Terry McLaurins price on DraftKings ($5,900) is mind-boggling coming off a 12-target game.

Dallas has faced the fourth-highest play-action rate this season (34.1%) and has allowed the third-highest passer rating against those types of throws (144.1).

Since Allen took over at quarterback, Washington has ramped up the use of play-action (34.9% vs. 25.6%) compared to when Dwanye Haskins was under center. This further cements McLaurin as an awesome play as the electrifying receiver ranks sixth in the NFL in targets off play-action (17).

Only two receivers this season have achieved 90 or more receiving yards against the Football Team. Both of those players were tight ends. That is good news for Dalton Schultz but bad news for the rest of the wide receivers on the Cowboys roster. Part of the reason why the Cowboys receivers have been able to maintain value is that Dallas has thrown 44 more times than any other team. This week against Washington, they might not need to pass as much because they could maintain a lead. Both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb should still be in starting lineups, but it wouldnt be at all surprising if at least one of them has lower than usual targets.

This should mean Ezekiel Elliott has a bounce-back game. Washington has an average run defense, but theyve been in the top 10 in rushing attempts against, leading them to also be top 10 in yards and touchdowns allowed. This could be the week where Elliott has his first 100-yard rushing game of the season.

The optimism surrounding Andy Dalton was short-lived, with this spread dropping significantly from the opening number. The preseason line of 8.5 simply projected a different situation, but it's noteworthy that this spread opened at 3 early in the week before dropping immediately to 1.

Our cash and ticket percentages both skew toward the Cowboys, highlighting that this latest movement is simply an adjustment by bookmakers based on Mondays performance.

The Cowboys completely changed their offensive philosophy on early downs with Andy Dalton, and Zeke was fed to an ineffective result. The total seemed to have taken note, dropping 3 points from the open. Our cash and ticket percentages skew heavily toward the under, but a higher percentage of cash makes this a situation that both big and public bettors buy into. PFF Greenline has no strong preference on the total but is intrigued by plays on both the spread and moneyline.

The Josh Allen rollercoaster ride has taken more unexpected dips over recent weeks. After a start to the season that had people signing apology forms and ready to crown him as one of the most surprising development stories in recent draft history, he has cooled way down in the past two games. After three consecutive games with a PFF grade of at least 80.0 peaking with a career-best 91.9 against the Raiders in Week 4 Allen has posted grades of 76.7 and 64.6, and 1,040 passing yards in his first three games gave way to a season-low of just 122 in the rain on Monday night.

What we saw in the first four games of the season was too good to completely ignore and represented a departure from his baseline play over the first two seasons of his career too dramatic to be just a quirk. Questions were being asked at the time about whether it was sustainable, but now it has fallen away.

Allens overall PFF grade is still 86.3 for the season, which is No. 6 in the NFL but more than 20 grading points higher than his previous career-high, but for the first time this season, we get to see whether he can bounce back from a performance that belongs more comfortably with his previous levels of play and not the new Allen that we had seen in 2020.

Jamison Crowder is in a smash spot versus a Buffalo Bills defense that has allowed the third-most completions to slot wide receivers this season. Hes also averaged 12.3 targets, 9.6 catches and 93 receiving yards in his last three games versus the Bills.

But from a DFS perspective, there is a way to save more salary to jam in all the studs Breshad Perriman is just $3,700 on DraftKings. He had four catches for 62 yards on eight targets in Week 6 (10.2 fantasy points) and his salary pricepoint surprisingly went down.

He led the team in air yards (134) and will get the chance to match up routinely versus Bills cornerback Josh Norman, who ranks 96th among qualifying CBs in PFFs coverage grade (38.0) over the past two weeks in relief of Levi Wallace.

Which Bills players end up having the most fantasy points will depend on how quickly Buffalo gets a lead. The Jets defense has allowed the fourth-highest average yards per pass at 8.1. New York has been more efficient at stopping the run, but theyve been run on a lot, leading to nine touchdowns. Thats tied for third-most by a defense.

Because of the matchup, fantasy managers should continue to start the Bills stars. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should be more efficient than usual and will hopefully put up some big numbers until the Bills dont need them to. Devin Singletary should see plenty of carries, although it wouldnt be surprising if Zack Moss is given more opportunities, too.

No one is buying into the Jets at this point, as they look historically poor to start the season. Bigger bettors were once again burned by the Jets failing to cover a wide spread, which makes the stopping point on this week difficult to project.

The preseason spread of 3.5 quickly ballooned to 10 to start the week, before even more Bills backing pushed it to 13. A healthy percentage of the cash and tickets are siding with the Bills, which could point this spread all the way to 14. At some point, representatives from the sharp side will step in to buy the Jets, but after being burned the past two weeks, this spread could move more than expected.

The total has seen a drop since the open, with our predictive models still leaning toward the under. This is counter to the cash and ticket percentage, but how many points can the Jets realistically be expected to score with the 32nd-ranked offensive unit?

This game features a battle between two of the more conservative quarterbacks in the league from a stylistic point of view. Thats a trait that has always been there with Teddy Bridgewater, and Drew Brees has skewed more and more in that direction as he has aged.

Denver's Drew Lock leads the NFL in average depth of target at 13.9, and the more aggressive quarterbacks in the league are above 10 yards on average, but Bridgewater sits at 7.2 and Brees just 6.3 yards this season. They rank 29th and 36th out of 38 qualifiers, respectively.

Brees has also been the least likely quarterback in the league to take a deep shot this season, as only 5.1% of his pass attempts have traveled 20 or more yards downfield from the line of scrimmage. Bridgewater, on the other hand, has taken a deep shot on 9.2% of his attempts, which is significantly more aggressive but still ranks just 26th of 35 qualifiers.

There are always mitigating circumstances with these statistics, but at this point, its inarguable that both passers tend to be far more conservative than average, yet those aggressive targets are the most valuable passing plays in the game and help to offset a lot of down-to-down inconsistency. Will this be a battle between two quarterbacks trying to play tiny margins for error, or will one seize on the opportunity to be aggressive and win the game simply by attacking the bigger plays?

The Panthers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position this season, so alternative options should be sought after in replacement of Emmanuel Sanders. He projects to man the slot as he did back in Week 1, but that matchup doesnt favor Sanders in Week 7.

The Panthers defense has allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt (7.4) to slot wide receivers this season and just over four catches per game. Additionally, Sanders only saw five targets back in Week 1 when Michael Thomas was healthy.

Thomas should presumably be making his return to the Saints starting lineup, so in a corresponding move, fantasy managers need to take a wait-and-see approach with Sanders and place him on the bench.

For the Panthers offense, start the players you always start in Mike Davis, D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, but none of them are likely to have their best games of the season. The Saints have been good at shutting down wide receivers, especially on the outside, and have been average against running backs.

The biggest Saints weakness has been stopping tight ends, where theyve allowed more fantasy points to tight ends than any other defense. The Panthers, on the other hand, have only had 10 catches by tight ends for 74 yards and a touchdown. There have been over 20 instances where a tight end had more yards in a game than the Carolina tight ends have had this season combined. Even against this defense, I wouldnt trust even picking up one of the Carolina tight ends.

The Panthers have quickly fallen out of favor with bettors after receiving significant backing in Week 6. The 6.5-point opening line quickly cut through the key number 7 before adding the hook. The cash and ticket percentages are skewed toward the Saints, who appear to be receiving a higher percentage of public backing.

Twenty-three places separate these offenses in our opponent-adjusted rankings, despite similar expected points added (EPA) per pass attempt numbers to start the season. The total market hasnt moved off of the opening number, with PFF Greenline offering a lean on one side of this market.

Any further line movement could open up value on the spread and moneyline, which makes monitoring Greenline imperative for late-week action.

Week 6 saw one of the most uncharacteristic Aaron Rodgers performances in a long time. Before facing Tampa Bay, Rodgers had yet to commit any kind of a turnover-worthy play on the season. He jumped out to a lead but then seemed to unravel at the point he threw his first a pick-six to cornerback Jamel Dean that erased much of the lead.

From that point on, Rodgers wasnt right in the game and finished with three turnover-worthy plays overall. He was seemingly unable to deal with the timing of the Tampa Bay pressure looks and generally struggled to find a rhythm for the rest of the contest. You could make the case that this represented the first good defense that he has faced this season and that the Rodgers we saw for the first five weeks was a mirage, or you can make the case that this was a bad day at the office all quarterbacks have them.

Either way, getting to face the Houston Texans represents an ideal environment for him to bounce back and once again look like the best quarterback in the game, whatever the underlying reasons for his poor performance were. Only two defenses in the league are allowing a higher passer rating to opposing quarterbacks than the 119.6 the Texans are currently giving up, and their defense as a whole is giving up 6.1 yards per play, 27th in the league. We may not get a better handle on where Rodgers is this season until someplace down the line, but we should be expecting a big rebound game this week.

I wont get to Will Fuller in DFS this week because of his tough matchup against Jaire Alexander he grades out as PFFs second-best CB in coverage grade this season (90.7) but David Johnson at $5,300 peaks my interest.

The Packers have been atrocious against running backs this season, allowing the most fantasy points to the position over the past four weeks, and DJ has seen 19.5 touches per game under the new coaching regime.

Those touches havent resulted in much (12.5 fantasy points per game), but the big game is coming. Per PFFs expected fantasy points model, Johnson should be averaging closer to 20.1 fantasy points per game.

Aaron Jones had his worst game of the season last week. After having at least 65 rushing yards in every game, he was held to 15 against the Buccaneers. He should be able to respond in a big way against this Texans defense. They are the only team to have allowed over 1,000 rushing yards so far this season. Part of that is because the Texans have been run against the most, but theyve also allowed the highest yards per carry at 5.4. Jones should only add to those numbers.

Davante Adams against Bradley Roby will be the other interesting battle in this game. The Texans have consistently put Roby up against the opposition's top wide receiver. Roby has yet to allow more than 45 yards in a game, although the wide receivers hes lined up against have gotten more yards outside of Robys coverage. Robys coverage grade has been improving as the season has gone on despite continuing to play good receivers. Adams should still be in all starting lineups but be prepared for this game to not be his best. Other parts of the Texans defense will be easier to attack in the passing game.

The betting market appeared lower on the Texans than our predictive models, which explains the 1-point preseason spread moving only a little at the start of the week. This number now sits between 3 and 3.5, with early bettors all over the Packers as road favorites.

Both offenses rank in the top 10 of our opponent-adjusted offensive grades, with the Packers the third-best offense from an EPA per pass attempt perspective. This total has opened as the second-highest of the weekend and has held steady to that number, despite a healthy percentage of the cash and tickets on the over.

PFF Greenline has identified some value on the moneyline and total in this matchup. These markets appear to be on the verge of movement, which makes checking Greenline a worthwhile approach.

We wrote last week in this piece about the Steelers pass-rush unit facing its first real test of the 2020 season against a Browns' offensive line that had played like one of the leagues best to start the year. Its safe to say that Pittsburgh passed the test they generated pressure on over 50% of their pass-rushing snaps (again), and they limited the Browns to just -0.5 expected points added per play. You have to go back to 2008 to find a defensive performance as dominant as that by the Steelers on a per-play basis. T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt are all getting after the quarterback at a high level this year making up the leagues most formidable pass rush through the first six weeks of the season.

On the other side of the field, Tennessees offense has been one of the more impressive groups in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith continues to put Tannehill in positions to succeed, and the former Dolphin is absolutely dealing. He currently sits as PFFs fifth-highest graded passer. As a team, the Titans are fielding one of the most efficient offenses in the league (0.22 EPA per play).

Tannehills propensity to take sacks is an area for concern in this matchup, though. Since the start of last season, the only two quarterbacks to take sacks on a higher percentage of their pressured dropbacks are Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen. The Steelers will look to capitalize on that in this battle between the last two undefeated teams in the AFC.

Ryan Tannehill looks like he would be in a position to be a candidate to avoid in this matchup, but the Steelers secondary has holes. They have allowed the third-most air yards per game before Baker Mayfield laid a total egg against them, they had allowed over 20 fantasy points per game to the likes of Daniel Jones, Jeff Driskel and Carson Wentz.

The Steelers claim to fame is how they can bring pressure to the quarterback position they lead the league in pressure rate at 50.7%. But no quarterback has been better than Tannehill in the face of pressure this season.

He owns a 7:0 touchdown to interception ratio and boasts the No. 1 passer rating (110.5) under pressure its actually slightly higher than his rating in a clean pocket (110.3).

Dont be surprised to see Tannehill shred the Steelers secondary on Sunday.

The Titans defense is coming off a game where they allowed four passing touchdowns one to each of the teams top three wide receivers and the fourth to their tight end. That is great news for the Steelers, who have plenty of wide receivers to throw to.

The biggest question will be if Diontae Johnson is ready to return or not. If he does, that would likely limit the playing time of both James Washington and Chase Claypool. Even with limited playing time, Claypool should be starting with how much the Steelers have been getting him the ball when he is on the field. Washington will be more dependent on whether Johnson plays or not. The rest of the Steelers starters should all be in starting lineups. If there is anything to be concerned about with these matchups, its that Tennessee has an above-average run defense, which could slow down James Conner. He still sees a very high percentage of the playing time and carries, so even if the matchup isnt amazing for him, he should still be starting.

This matchup looks like the game of the week, with the Titans one spot ahead of the Steelers at fifth in our Elo rankings. The market is siding with the road team that we have slightly lower in our power rankings. The cash and ticket percentages have been heavily one-sided, with 78% of the cash on the Steelers suggesting big bettors are buying in early in the week.

The spread offers no real value based on our predictive models, despite 28 places separating these teams in our opponent-adjusted offensive grades. Tannehill has graded 12 points better than Ben Roethlisberger, which makes for one of the most intriguing matchups of the week as the Titans offense gets set to go up against a ferocious Steelers defense.

That Steelers defense is second overall in our opponent-adjusted grades, but the total market still has an appetite for points. The opening 52.5 didnt hold, but the total has only seen a half- or one-point drop, depending on the book. Our predictive models lean slightly towards the over, which is the same direction as the cash and ticket percentages.

Mayfields 2019 season was already a cause for concern he took a clear step back from what was a promising rookie season in 2018, bailing on clean pockets and struggling with his accuracy.

Heading into the 2020 season with new head coach and playcaller Kevin Stefanski, as well as improvements to his supporting cast, there were reasons to believe that Mayfield would bounce back. After all, there were multiple years across his time at Oklahoma and early on in his NFL career that indicated that he could be a quality starter at worst.

Even with the dud against Pittsburgh last week, Mayfields passer rating is still better this year than it was in 2019, but his PFF passing grade has dropped from 71.7 to 57.3. The credit for how Clevelands offense has looked should largely go to the upgrade from Freddie Kitchens to Kevin Stefanski, while Mayfield looks like someone who is holding them back rather than delivering them to the promised land. PFFs Mike Renner detailed the reasons for concern in a piece this week, and they range from shaky pocket presence to an inability to push the ball downfield from traditional dropbacks.

The yips are often associated with baseball, but it sure looks like Mayfield has them. Hes just not the same confident player weve seen in the past, and thats a major problem for the Browns.

The Cleveland Browns have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the past four weeks, which makes both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd locked-and-loaded options in fantasy lineups for Week 7. Both rank inside the top-12 WRs in PPR formats since Week 3.

Back in Week 2, when the Bengals played the Browns, Boyd had over 70 receiving yards and a touchdown. Higgins wasnt playing a full role at the time in that contest but still saw modest production with six targets for three catches and 35 yards.

A.J. Green enjoyed a renaissance of sorts in Week 6, posting his best game to date with eight grabs for 96 receiving yards. I would not immediately jump on the back on the Green bandwagon moving forward, though, just because of his track record so far this season.

His Week 6 stat line also looks much less impressive when its revealed that the majority of his yardage gained was against linebacker Anthony Walker in coverage. He is a WR3 option this week more than anything else and is preferably a major sell-high candidate based on the name brand.

Id also like to highlight that its always important to recognize outlier player performances in correlation with other player injuries. I dont think its a coincidence that Greens best game came the week the team deactivated Auden Tate. In the three games Tate has been active and seen legitimate snaps this season, Green has averaged just under four targets per game. The other three games? Eleven targets per game.

If Tate is ruled out for Week 7, it will be hard to pass on Green in DFS hell be a solid cash play option at just $4,300.

This past week, Kareem Hunt had his worst game of the season, but this week could be his best. The Bengals have allowed the second-most yards per carry this season at 5.1. This had led to the third-most rushing yards allowed at 854. As long as the Browns defense doesnt give up a big lead, Clevelands strategy on offense should just be to feed Hunt.

Austin Hooper also has the potential to have his biggest game of the season. He wasnt seeing five targets per game over the first three weeks, but that has increased and hes had five catches per game the last three weeks. Hes still not on pace to score as many touchdowns as last season, and hes yet to avoid a tackle after the catch despite having seven or more avoided tackles each of the last three seasons. The Bengals have given up 404 yards to tight ends, which is the third-most. The combined increased opportunities and defense that has given up plenty of yards should make Hooper owners happy.

This spread has bounced between 3 and 4, with no consensus forming on the early-week number. The Browns are the popular team in the betting market, after receiving 78% of the cash and 81% of the early-week ticket percentages. Our predictive models find little value in this game, so shopping for the best available price is a prudent decision in this situation.

The total has dropped 1.5 points since the open, which could partially be attributed to the lack of points last week. Both defenses rank in the twenties of our opponent-adjusted grades, which highlights why Greenline leans slightly toward the under. There is little betting value in this matchup, but line movement could open up opportunities as we head toward kickoff.

Detroit received a lot of preseason buzz, and that has not come to fruition through five games in 2020. The big area of concern on this team is a defense that continues to disappoint under Matt Patricia. Desmond Trufant has missed multiple games with an injury, and Jeffrey Okudah has not looked like a player who is ready to immediately step in right and replace Darius Slay on the outside, posting a 30.4 PFF coverage gradethrough his first four NFL games.

On the bright side for the Lions, their offense is starting to look more and more like the group that impressed with Matthew Stafford on the field in 2019. Golladays return after missing the first two games of the season with injury has a lot to do with that. Stafford hasnt played particularly well this season, earning a 65.8 PFF grade thus far, but in the three games that hes had Golladay at his disposal, Detroit ranks third in expected points added per pass play behind only Kansas City and Tennessee. That rank was 25th across the first two weeks of the season without Golladay.

He gives Stafford and this offense one of the best downfield, contested-catch targets in the NFL. Look for Golladay to have a big game here against a Falcons secondary that has struggled in coverage this year.

Todd Gurley II still finds himself in a prime sell-high position this game versus the Lions feels extremely trappy. We see teams adjust when they come out after bye weeks, and the Lions run defense looked much improved in Week 6, holding James Robinson to just 29 rushing yards on 12 attempts.

Gurley has been involved more as a pass-catcher in recent weeks nine targets over the past two weeks but his fantasy production is still tied to his rushing production. Gurley could barely get anything going against the Minnesota Vikings (PFFs 28th run-graded defense) in Week 6 (2.4 yards per attempt), so I am not optimistic about his Week 7 matchup.

The Falcons defense is the gift that keeps giving to fantasy owners. Eight different wide receivers have caught had least 90 yards each, which is great news for Kenny Golladay and Matthew Stafford.

The interesting thing will be how well T.J. Hockenson will do. He started the season with at least 50 yards in each of the first three games. Over the last two games, he had been held to under 20 yards each game but has also scored a touchdown in each. The Falcons have yet to face any of the top 20 tight ends drafted this year until this upcoming week. Despite not facing any of the big-name tight ends, theyve allowed five different TEs to gain at least 50 yards. Hockenson has the opportunity for a career game.

The preseason spread of -6 was not going to hold for a team one game after its head coach was fired. This week's opening of -1 was a slight overreaction, with the early-week number locked into -2. Some leading books have the juice on -2, so a bump up to -2.5 still feels like a potential path.

It is more of the same story from our predictive models, needing to go back to the well on the Falcons after their upset victory last week. This team is much better than their early-season struggles, with their late-game collapses at least reflecting their early-game ability. The cash and ticket percentages are counter to our predictive models, with 70% of the cash and 60% of the tickets on the Lions. The Lions have been a trendy betting target throughout 2020, which is a viable reason for why we are so far off-market on this matchup.

The Falcons are once again an over team, sitting at 4-2 going over to start the season. This total is the highest of Week 7 after seeing no change from the opening number.

Arizona beating the undefeated Seahawks following a bye would send a message to the rest of the NFL that it is a legitimate contender in the NFC West. Despite the Cardinals' 4-2 record through six weeks, it doesnt exactly seem like thats how theyre being viewed right now.

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NFL Week 7 Preview: Fantasy football advice, betting tips and matchups to watch | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics - Pro Football Focus