12 Tom Brady stats that shed light on his 2019 season – Boston.com

COMMENTARY

The Patriots offense has been ugly for a while now, but initially that didnt appear to be a product of the quarterback play. If anything, it looked like the struggles wouldve been even mightier, and the result even more grotesque, had a lesser slinger than Tom Brady been standing behind center.

And that may yet be true. The saving grace for the Pats has been the offenses general ability to protect the ball, and perhaps a different quarterback wouldve complicated things with a few careless mistakes.

But after he uncharacteristically missed a few open throws last week, and played a factor in letting the Bengals linger into the third quarter, its time to wonder with Brady. Is he a shell of his former self, as the Globe suggested this week? Is it an injury, maybe to his elbow? Or is it just a result of whats surrounding him when he enters the huddle?

Ultimately, the answer may be one that dictates how the Patriots handle the pending free agent in the coming months and while theres more to the equation, obviously, when those negotiations do happen, the numbers are going to give New England all the power.

Almost across the board, the stats suggest a decline from the greatest of all time, looking at them in the context of his own high standards and compared to his contemporaries. Heres a look at (TB)12 number-based facts of particular note:

Brady completed just 45.9 percent of his passes the first time the Pats faced the Bills, and what was an outlier early in the season has become a trend. He enters Sundays game on a streak of five straight performances in which hes failed to complete better than 56 percent of his throws. (The league average is 63.8 percent this season, for what its worth.)

Before this stretch, Brady had never gone more than three weeks in a row with a completion rate so low. He slumped through a three-week drought in 2015, but that was the only time it had happened since 2006. In fact, from 2009-18, there was only one other instance where it happened in even two consecutive weeks.

Brady began the year having never had more than six games in a season in which he completed 56 percent of his passes or less, but through 14 contests hes experienced it seven times. Fortunately for the Patriots, theyre 5-2 in those games. Through 2018, they were 30-27 in regular-season games when Brady failed to complete better than 56 percent of his throws.

Counting the playoffs, Bradys career winning percentage when his completion percentage is 56 or lower was .530 (35-31) before this season. When he was north of 56 percent, it was 83.5 percent (202-40). Further, before being true in half his games this season, it was true for Brady in just 21 percent of his career contests.

According to the NFLs Next Gen Stats, the expectation for Bradys throws is that he should have a 63.9 percent completion rate. That dip of 3.8 percent from expected is third-worst among passers whove tried at least 200 passes, slotting him between Gardner Minshew and Baker Mayfield. It should be noted, though, that its not just the QB. The Pats 21 drops rank third in the league, and he is also among the league leaders in throwaways after a play breaks down.

On average, Brady has had 2.74 seconds to throw this season. Thats 12th-fewest among passers with at least 200 attempts, but according to the NFL its the most time hes had from snap to throw since the league began tracking it in 2016. Thats true, despite the fact Bradys target is on average 7.5 yards down field, decreased from nine yards in 20

Bradys passer rating of 86.5 is his lowest for a full season since 2003 and by the end of the weekend it could be tracking to the lowest of his career. Thats a distinction dubiously held for now by the 85.7 he posted in 2002. And its not just subpar per his own Canton standards. It ranks 20th in the league this season among qualifying quarterbacks.

Occupying the three spots ahead of him are Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, and Kyler Murray. Thats two guys who could lose their starting jobs before next season, plus a rookie, and combined theyve thrown 52 interceptions (against 68 touchdowns).

In 2008, ESPN introduced its own QBR statistic, which is essentially a modified version of passer rating that tries to factor in more of the in-game circumstances to evaluate a quarterbacks performance and value. Since then, Brady has never finished a season with a QBR worse than 62.1. This year hes at 50.1, leaving quite a gap between him and the leader, Lamar Jackson, the MVP frontrunner whos at 80.2.

A defense as good as New Englands hasnt left the Pats in many positions where theyre scrambling, but with two weeks to go Brady has led zero fourth-quarter comebacks, and zero game-winning fourth-quarter drives. If that holds through Week 17, itll be the first season since 2004 that he finishes without at least one of each. That year he put together one game-winning possession, but it didnt require a comeback.

Is Brady locking in too much on Julian Edelman? Edelmans 140 targets comprise more than a quarter of the balls the quarterback has thrown this season, and are 53 more than the next-closest Patriot. For comparisons sake, in Bradys two MVP seasons, the target leaders were Brandon Cooks (19.5 percent in 2017, nine more targets than Rob Gronkowski) and Randy Moss (27.3 percent in 2007, 15 more than Wes Welker). Those dont suggest hes overusing Edelman at least when Edelman is healthy enough to be a viable option.

Entering Sunday at 3.7 per tote, this is on track to be the ninth time in Bradys 18 seasons as the Pats primary starter that the team averages fewer than four yards per carry. (Interestingly, the teams most efficient rushing season since 2001 came in 2008, when Brady missed all but half a quarter.)Historically, though, there hasnt appeared to be much correlation between the Pats running problems and the teams success. Four of the seven previous seasons in which theyve picked up fewer than four yards per rush, theyve won the Super Bowl. Also included in the mix are a season in which Brady led the league in passing yardage (2005), another when he led the league in touchdown passes (2015), and five in which hes been voted to the Pro Bowl.

Perhaps related to the lack of a running game, Brady is second across the NFL in passing attempts, with his 551 trailing Winston by three for the lead. Despite this, hes just seventh in completions, ninth in first downs, and tied for 12th in touchdown passes. Only 3.8 percent of his passes have resulted in touchdowns, tied with Kyle Allen and Mitchell Trubisky for 23rd in the league.

Brady does rank ninth in the league in passing yards, and theres a surprising list of guys hes ahead of with 3,565 Kirk Cousins (3,481), Jimmy Garoppolo (3,445), Carson Wentz (3,431), Lamar Jackson (2,889) among those whove also played 14 games.

As it relates specifically to these final two regular-season tilts, much is made of Bradys relative struggles against the Dolphins but his career numbers against Miami are strikingly similar to what hes produced against Buffalo. Per football-reference hes faced each 34 times, and Bradys average game against the Dolphins is 20-of-32 for 234 yards, 1.9 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions; against the Bills, its 21-of-33 for 247 yards, two touchdowns, and 0.7 interceptions.

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12 Tom Brady stats that shed light on his 2019 season - Boston.com