Mailbag: Have the Blue Jays already seen the best of Guerrero? – Toronto Star

Surprise, surprise, Major League Baseball's off-season is off to yet another dull start.

It has been almost a month since the Nationals were crowned World Series champions and almost nothing has happened since then. There have been a handful of moves -- reliever Will Smith to the Braves and catcher Yasmani Grandal to the White Sox -- but most of the elite free agents are still looking for a home.

Toronto's priorities remain the same as they were at the end of the regular season. Right-hander Chase Anderson was brought in through a minor trade and the Jays have made some small changes to their 40-man roster, but the major additions have yet to surface.

In the NBA and NHL, deals can't seem to get done fast enough. MLB is a completely different story with every team tripping over itself to give an appearance of being patient and disciplined. It's not a great look for the league, but it's one that is likely to change in the coming weeks with the annual Winter Meetings right around the corner.

The Jays havent done anything consequence, but there's still a lot to talk about when it comes to this team's off-season. With that, it's time to open the weekly mailbag. As always, questions can be submitted to bluejaysmailbag@gmail.com or by reaching out on Twitter to @GregorChisholm. Please make sure to include your first name and hometown.

The following questions have been edited for length and grammar:

Is a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. likely to increase his average and power numbers by much, or are rookie season stats usually a decent guide?-- John, Northern Ireland

The Blue Jays haven't seen the best of Guerrero quite yet. His rookie season was solid enough, but still a bit of a disappointment considering the lofty expectations he faced at the beginning of the year. A slash line of .272/.339/.433 certainly wasnt terrible, but there's every reason to believe this is a guy who will post better numbers in the future. The biggest obstacle for Guerrero, outside of fatiguing down the stretch, was not getting enough loft on the ball. He hit far too many balls on the ground last year but some changes to his swing could help remedy that. Guerrero still has as much upside as anyone in baseball and he's someone I would bet on to have a much better year in 2020.

1. The Jays have clear needs in the rotation and have the fewest dollars allocated to the 2020 payroll. Wouldn't it make sense going after big-name starter right now in free agency? Guys like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler. Next year's class isn't as great as this year and we're one-to-two seasons away from competing. Spend the money now to get that "ace". 2. Would Didi Gregorius, be a good fit for the Jays? Let Didi play short, Bo over to 2, Biggio to play 1st? Worried about Biggios defence.-- Josh, Prince Albert, Sask.

The first question references a strategy I proposed earlier this month. Toronto currently has a projected payroll of approximately $65 million for next season, including arbitration and pre-arbitration players. In 2021, there is just $18.7 million on the books. There is a unique opportunity for ownership to flex its financial muscle by frontloading deals to sign prime free agents, before the rest of the young core starts making a lot of money. That said, it doesn't appear to be an approach the Blue Jays are taking this off-season.

As for the second question, Gregorius would fit on just about any roster, but the priority must be pitching and outside of a first baseman/designated hitter, possibly an outfielder, there likely won't be a lot of changes on the position player front. There are legitimate questions about Toronto's defence up the middle but Bichette has displayed a lot of progression there and I wouldn't rule out a similar trajectory for Biggio. Both guys deserve more time to secure their spot on the field.

The Jays have several players with low BA, low OBA, and 20 HR power (Derek Fisher, Brandon Drury, Billy McKinney, Teoscar Hernandez, Rowdy Tellez, Danny Jansen, Randal Grichuk). Do you think any of these players will break out to an average OBA of .330 or above?-- Bill, Wetaskiwin, Alberta

The name that sticks out to me is Jansen and he's another player I think will be much better next season. In Jansen's final year with Triple-A Buffalo, he posted a .275/.390/.473 slash line with an OPS of .863. His first stint in the majors was equally impressive with an OPS+ of 115. Jansen struggled with the bat this year, but he can easily be forgiven considering his demands behind the plate. Now that he's more settled, Jansen, who has never been afraid to work the count, should take a big step forward in 2020. Hernandez is another possibility because he finished 2019 with a .325 wOBA despite a terrible start to the year. The others on this list? Probably not so much.

I am a Dutch Blue Jays fan and follow your columns as much as possible. I understand that they are in the rebuild but cannot follow the strategy. They were already weak in the rotation and then they trade Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez instead of extending them. Then you get a Fisher back and now they are considering trading Gurriel and/or one of the talented young catchers ... Jays seem more like a trading house than a club in rebuild mode. How do you see this? Do you think the front office is acting well? -- Gert, Netherlands

To be honest, I think most of the trade talk surrounding Toronto's position players has been overblown. Did the Jays listen when other teams came calling? Yes. Did they potentially throw out a couple names in broad discussions during their search for pitching? Sure, but it doesn't mean any of it is likely to happen. As mentioned before in this space, the Jays need to get creative this winter to fill the holes on their pitching staff. That inevitably leads to some uncomfortable questions about which members of the young core they would be willing to trade to make it happen, but that's not the top priority. The goal is to make a couple of significant adds through free agency, not to part with in-house assets. Judge the front office for the moves it will eventually makes, but don't read too much into these early reports. It still seems improbable to me that Gurriel, Jansen and others will be moved this winter.

When is something going to happen?-- Henry, Clarington, Ontario

Fair question. The consensus is that the market is moving a bit quicker than it has the last couple of years, but it's still a far cry from the way things operated 5-10 years ago. Super agent Scott Boras holds most of the cards this winter because he represents most of the top free agents. At some point, he's going to have to start clearing the board to manage his workload. Gerrit Cole seems unlikely to sign before the New Year, but others such as Strasburg and Anthony Rendon are candidates to get new deals before -- or during -- the winter meetings. Once those guys start going off the board, the mid-tier market, where Toronto is shopping, should see some movement as well.

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Your MLB wild card proposal was a good idea but ... BEFORE ANY OF THESE CHANGES, LETS MAKE THE DIVISIONAL SERIES A BEST 4 OUT OF 7 RATHER THAN 3 OUT OF 5. THEN YOU CAN DO ANY OTHER CHANGES TO THE PLAYOFF FORMAT.-- Wayne, Toronto

First off, why are you yelling? Second, I completely agree. Wayne is referring to a proposal I made in Monday's blog, which would see the addition of two wild card teams in each league. Changing the division series to a best-of-seven format, is another idea I can get behind because it's a truer test to determine the better team. But the biggest issue of all, in my mind, continues to be the lack of a balanced schedule. It's not fair that teams in the AL East are competing for the same wild card as teams in a weak Central Division. Having a wild card spot for each second-place team would ease those concerns a bit, but eventually MLB needs to find a way to even out the schedule for all teams in the AL and NL.

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Mailbag: Have the Blue Jays already seen the best of Guerrero? - Toronto Star