10. Green Bay Packers (9-3): "I'm not as high on Green Bay as everybody else is. The Packers offense gains 140 yards LESS per game on the road this season -- that's the worst in the NFL, and a disturbing stat. They're 28th in total defense. When you get to December this is when the best coaching staffs start to take over and I'm not sure Matt Lafleur is an elite coach. Can they play well when they're on the road and uncomfortable? They're not as good on the road and they're not as good against physical teams."
9. Buffalo Bills (9-3): "This is NOT a Super Bowl team but it's a great story. They know who they are and they know what they're not. They figured out what their quarterback does very well and they let him do that. They're number 3 in total defense, number 3 in scoring defense, and do a good job forcing you into field goals. The ceiling is obviously low because of the offensive side of the ball but I do believe they're better the Packers today because they know their identity and Green Bay doesn't."
8. New England Patriots (10-2): They're 22nd in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage -- that is a 'Where's Gronk?' problem. You can't settle for field goals against teams like Baltimore and Kansas City going forward. They've been held to 22 points or less in their last four games so people have film on it and know there is no deep threat out there. They're incredibly well-coached and resourceful, and I love their special teams and defense, but limitations over the top have them at eight."
7. Houston Texans (8-4): Houston is the current state of football in America -- there are so many things I don't like but they're so dynamic at quarterback and so gifted at wide receiver that I put them a slot ahead of the Patriots. They're too Deshaun Watson-dependent but I think they have elite perimeter talent that makes up for coaching snafus and some defensive line limitations."
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-4): "I thought Monday Night Football was a pretty good loss. Adam Thielen didn't play but will return and usually you'll have Dalvin Cook in the fourth quarter. They're 6th in rushing, fourth in yards per play, and they're explosive and go over the top. I'm not a huge Kirk Cousins fan but I think he's efficient and he's quarterbacking the best roster in the NFL."
5. New Orleans Saints (10-2): "They're the New England Patriots of the NFC. They can't beat you over the top, they have a dynamic 40-year-old quarterback who is not going to beat you with athletic ability, but it'll be 'Death by 1,000 Cuts'. They're smart, they're resourceful, but they lack a pop over the top, and I think that will be their undoing this weekend against the 49ers."
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4): "Watch out for the Chiefs right now, HERE THEY COME. They've had offensive line issues, 'Patrick Mahomes is hurt' issues, and they've had wide receiver injuries, but the band is all back now and they're healthy. They're fourth in total offense and took the Raiders out of that game in about five minutes. They have not lost a game by more than 7 points all year despite a series of injuries to crucial pieces on offense."
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-2): This is a power running team who can play keepaway, and it's why they can play with a team like Baltimore. We know their defense is good but this team is second in the NFL in rushing. What I like about them is when the weather starts to get crappy in December and January, San Francisco will be able to go on the road and run the football, and not rely on the defensive line to be special for 35 minutes. I like how they don't have to rely on Jimmy Garoppolo either."
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-2): I like Seattle to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Their roster is good -- it isn't special -- but their coach, quarterback, and GM are all 'A+' and the Josh Gordon, Quandre Diggs, and Jadeveon Clowney additions were great moves. They lead the NFC in takeaways, they're first in the two minute offense, and even though they don't have the talent as San Fran and New Orleans, Pete Carroll teams always start to pick it up in December."
1. Baltimore Ravens (10-2): "The NFL is playing catch up. The massive fixtures at tight end, Lamar Jackson, excellent head coach -- they were 2-2 and solved a problem by going out and getting Marcus Peters. I don't think anyone else can duplicate what San Francisco did and go toe-to-toe with Baltimore simply on talent alone. The Ravens are the best team in the NFL."
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