Fantasy Football: Breaking down high-value touches and targets for all 32 NFL teams | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections – Pro Football…

When it comes to fantasy football, volume is king. We want players who generate the most targets and touches more opportunities leads to more fantasy points. But not all opportunities are created equal.

End-zone targets, deep targets (20 yards or more), air yards and carries inside the 5-yard line are prime examples of high-value opportunities. We want players who have a command of their teams high-value touches because that maximizes their fantasy upside.

In PPR formats, an end-zone target is worth nearly double a normal target. Deep targets net 1.3 times as much. A carry inside the 5-yard line more than quadruples the rate of fantasy points on a normal carry.

Identifying players with high-usage roles is critical to gaining an edge over the competition. Thats why Ive broken down the high-usage roles across all 32 NFL teams to unearth as much value as we can heading into the 2021 fantasy football season.

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT

Kenyan Drake was no stranger to seeing carries inside the opponents 5-yard line. The ex-Arizona Cardinals running backs 21 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line tied for the third-most in the league last season.

With him off to greener pastures in Las Vegas Jon Gruden laid out some real cheddar the goal-line duties look to be split in a three-way committee between Kyler Murray, Chase Edmonds and James Conner.

Murray has a chance to see a Cam Newton-esque workload rushing the ball inside the 5-yard line if he emerges as the favorite. He and Drake were tied with six rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line before Murrays shoulder injury.

Drake's goal-line carries didn't skyrocket until after Murray was banged up. He totaled nearly 72% of his goal-line attempts (15) starting in Week 11 Murray only had two the rest of the way.

Conner is the biggest threat to carve out the main goal-line role.Since 2018, Conner is PFF's second-highest graded (81.6) rusher inside the 5 (32 carries). His touchdown/first down conversion rate ranks third-best (62.5%).

Edmonds has one goal-line carry over the past two seasons, which doesnt bode well for his fantasy upside. Neither does the addition of second-round wide receiver Rondale Moore. The Purdue products YAC-ability will attract targets close to the line of scrimmage, an overlap that will likely limit RB receiving production in Kliff Kingsburys horizontal Air Raid offense.

No RB saw a higher percentage of snaps from the slot than Edmonds in 2020 (26%).

As for other high-value opportunities, theres not much in the Arizona offense. The departures of veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and tight end Dan Arnold adds up to the 10th-most vacated targets, but neither of those players was earning any type of premium touches.

Newcomers like Moore and free-agent signing A.J. Green are going to slide into the pre-existing roles, which doesnt leave a ton of room for upside. Fourth-year WR Christian Kirk should slide back into the slot a more natural fit for his skill set but that might not be enough to salvage his fantasy value.

Kirk ranked second on the team last year in deep targets, and he still finished outside the top 45 wide receivers in fantasy points per game.

Simply put: Outside of DeAndre Hopkins and Murray, nothing is alluring about any of these Zona players in fantasy football.

Calvin Ridleys dominant 2020 campaign was fueled by high-value touches. The superstar wideout finished first in air yards and second in end-zone targets.

Although the pass-catching corps projects to be more crowded in 2021 with a healthy Julio Jones andNo. 1-ranked rookie tight end Kyle Pitts, Ridley is the No. 1 option for fantasy football. Any hit to his 24% overall target share from last season will be balanced out by uber-efficient targets.

Ridley finished last season first in target rate on 20-plus yard targets (58%) and fourth in target rate on pass attempts to the end zone (48%). Matt Ryan simply cant get Ridley enough high-value targets.

But if anyone is going to eat into Ridleys share of precious end-zone targets, it would be the 6-foot-6 red-zone monster, Pitts. The stud from Florida led all of college football in end-zone target rate (59%) at the tight end position and was PFFs highest-graded receiver (94.6) on those targets.

Last year, we saw Arthur Smith orchestrate an offense that heavily used tight ends third-most fantasy points scored at the position especially in the end zone. Jonnu Smith tied Corey Davis for the lead in team end-zone targets (10) while also ranking first in end-zone target rate (46%) at the tight end position.

Pitts is going to hit paydirt a ton in 2021 and will ned to in order to pay off his costly ADP as the TE5.

Ridleys target share was identical to Titans WR1 A.J. Brownlast season. Projecting Julio Jones to see a Corey Davis target share (20%) and Pitts a Jonnu Smith target share (14%) isnt too far-fetched.

Todd Gurleys exit from the Atlanta Falcons offense leaves nearly three-quarters of the team's goal-line touches up for grabs in 2021. Mike Davis looks to take over that role after he led the Panthers in goal-line carries a season ago.

Recall that Gurley was the RB6 through the first nine weeks of the season, averaging a rushing touchdown per game in Atlantas high-powered offense.

The Ravens passing attack was completely reliant on Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown seeing the lions share of high-value opportunities. Andrews finished sixth in team end-zone target share (39%, second-most at TE), and Brown finished with the leagues highest percentage of a teams 20-plus yard targets. The speedy wideout commanded 50% of Lamar Jacksons deep balls (33).

Unfortunately, these high-end market share numbers arent likely to continue with the teams additions of veteran Sammy Watkins, 2021 first-rounder Rashod Bateman and fourth-rounder Tylan Wallace. Based on their productive college profiles, the two rookies have a non-zero chance of making noise in the Baltimore offense.

Bateman commanded a convincing 41% air yards share (sixth-best), and Wallace saw 50% of Oklahoma States end-zone targets in 2019.

J.K. Dobbins (43%) and Gus Edwards (39%) nearly split carries from inside the 5-yard line, but the former got the most run when the Ravens turned to him down the stretch. Dobbins earned 80% of the goal-line carries in his nine healthy games after Week 11, so we should expect him to reprise the role in 2021.

Buffalo Bills WRs scored more fantasy points than any other team thanks in part to Stefon Diggs blow-up season. The wideout finished third in total air yards and third in overall target share (29%). But the sneaky name to highlight is incoming second-year WR Gabriel Davis his command of high-value targets was utterly impressive as a rookie.

The former UCF standout finished with just two fewer deep targets (26 versus 28) and posted an identical 25% end-zone target share to Diggs. He also posted a higher air yards share (19%) than established veterans John Brown and Cole Beasley.

The addition of Emmanuel Sanders after Browns departure will not hold Davis back. Hes got a second-year breakout written all over him.

The consensus is down on Zack Moss because of how little the Bills utilize running backs. But we cant overlook the fact that Moss was banged up all last season and was the teams primary ball carrier when healthy at the goal line in 2020.

Look past Moss box score last season, and focus on the fact that he is going to be the lead back on a top-five NFL offense. More times than not, running backs in those situations produce for fantasy. Scoop up the discount.

D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson cannibalized almost all of the team air yards and end-zone targets from a season ago (both finished top-10), so Curtis Samuels absence from the offense doesnt necessarily create a pristine situation for rookie Terrace Marshall Jr.

Carolinas top two WRs will continue to command the lions share of air yards and targets, leaving Marshalls chance of a Year 1 impact on the shoulders of end-zone targets. Last season, passing to the end zone was a real issue for the Panthers offense. Anderson and Moore saw a combined 18 end-zone targets but had zero end-zone touchdowns. Ex-Panthers quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was PFFs worst-graded quarterback in the red zone (29.0).

With red-zone woes a clear issue, Marshall provides a perfect fix. He ranks 12th in end-zone targets over the past two seasons, and his PFF receiving grade on those targets ranks fourth-best (93.5). He graded higher than former teammates JaMarr Chase (84.1) and Justin Jefferson (82.6) during their final collegiate seasons.

Marshall is my dark horse candidate to lead the 2021 wide receiver class in touchdowns this season.

The minute rookie quarterback Justin Fields hits the field in the preseason, Darnell Mooneys ADP will be sent to the moon. The former fifth-round pick flashed as a deep-ball threat last season, commanding an almost identical percentage of 20-plus yard throws as teammate Allen Robinson II (30% versus 29%).

Fields finished second in passing touchdowns of 20-plus yards (29) and third in air yards percentage (71.2%) since the start of the 2019 season, showcasing his affinity to throw the ball downfield.

The former Ohio State QB also ranked fifth in passing touchdowns on end-zone throws, which bodes well for Robinson. The Bears No. 1 wideout earned a 35% end-zone target share last season (10th) but only hauled in 31% (21st) of passes thrown his way.

Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky combined for a 48.6 passer rating when targeting the end zone last season, the fourth-worst mark in the league.

Its a breath of fresh air for drafters to invest in Robinson this year knowing hes going to catch passes from the best quarterback hes ever played with.

Get on the Cincinnati Bengals fantasy bandwagon. Upgrading from the aged A.J. Green to highly touted rookie JaMarr Chase is like going from zero to 100 real quick. Green led the Bengals in air yards share (31%) and end-zone target share (30%) but did little to nothing to translate his five-star opportunities to fantasy production.

His 1.02 yards per route run (101st) and 7.0 fantasy points per game (92nd) tell the entire story.

Bengals WRs finished fifth in total expected fantasy points, but due to Greens ineffectiveness, they ended with the most points scored under expectation. Because expected fantasy points are a better predictor of future production especially when theres a clear scapegoat for why the team underperformed this passing game can only improve in 2021 with Green out the door in favor of Chase.

Green was considered open on just one of his deep-ball targets last season. In 2019, Chase earned a near-perfect PFF receiving grade (99.0) on targets of 20-plus yards and totaled 24 receptions, 860 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns on deep targets alone.

A healthy Odell Beckham Jr. has a golden opportunity to prove all the haters wrong. He led the team in deep targets, end-zone targets and ranked sixth in the league in air yards before going down with a gruesome injury in Week 7.

Beckham saw more deep targets (12) than Jarvis Landry saw during the entire season (10). He also finished fifth in target rate on deep routes run (52%).

With a lack of legitimate competition for high-end touches in the Browns passing offense between Landry, veteran Rashard Higgins, second-year WR Donovan Peoples-Jones and the one-trick pony rookie speedster from Auburn, Anthony Schwartz, OBJ is shaping up to be a fantasy value in 2020. Alpha WRs arent readily available, let alone in the middle rounds of fantasy football drafts.

Tight end Austin Hooper is the only other candidate I could envision having a large role as an end-zone target. He finished last season second on the team in end-zone target share (18%). Browns tight ends collectively finished sixth in expected fantasy points, meaning theres more meat on the bone for production from that position in this offense.

Theres no doubt that Nick Chubb would be a top-three fantasy running back if Kareem Hunt wasnt in the fold. The split between the two backs ultimately limits Chubbs fantasy ceiling, most notably when it comes to carries at the goal line. Chubb is the primary option when healthy (11 carries inside the 5), but Hunt is hot on his tail (eight carries inside the 5).

Chubb is difficult to rank too high in fantasy for that reason, but the situation gives Hunt solid RB2 status that is rare to find from one teams backfield.

Slot receivers don't usually rank highly in terms of deep targets.CeeDee Lambs 28% 20-plus yard target share tied Michael Gallup for the team lead in 2021.

Even more shocking, Dallas No. 3 receiver, Gallup, led the team in end-zone target share (32%) in front of both Lamb (26%) and Amari Cooper (21%). Its ironic that Cooper is viewed as the No. 1 receiver because of his team-leading target share (21%) too few people areconsidering his share of premium touches in the Cowboys offense.

Gallups under-the-radar opportunities from a season ago are a reminder that hes a screaming value going several rounds later than his teammates. Lambs share of high-value touches make him nearly as valuable as Cooper.

Dak Prescott peppered Lamb with high-value targets before his injury. The rookie led the team in end-zone targets and hauled in seven deep balls from Prescott more than all other Dallas WRs combined (six).

Ezekiel Elliott finished second in the NFL in carries inside the 5-yard line, and that role alone is worth pure gold in fantasy football. All signs are pointing to this offense being explosive with Prescott back in action, so buying Zeke at the back of the first round is a discount too good pass. Even if backup Tony Pollard does see more touches after his impressive 2020 campaign, its going to still be #FeedZeke when the team looks to punch its ticket into the end zone.

All hail air yards king, Jerry Jeudy. The Denver Broncos rookie wide receiver finished seventh in total air yards a season ago, but alas only 59% were deemed catchable the third-worst mark in the league.

Luckily for him, Teddy Bridgewater is vastly more accurate than Drew Lock, so Id expect the former to improve his receiving efficiency. Teddy B finished third in the league in adjusted completion percentage (80%) while Lock finished third-worst (68.7%).

Jeudys rookie season is eerily similar to that of Curtis Samuels second season: tons of air yards and deep targets downfield but horrible quarterback play. Only 60% of the passes thrown his way were deemed catchable, which ranked 79th in 2019. Fast forward to 2020, and that rate rose to 86% (first) with Bridgewater at QB.

Its the perfect case study for backing Jeudy as a fantasy target in 2021. His rookie season gave us the opportunity, and the efficiency can only go up from here.

One of the worst parts about Jared Goffs game is that he doesnt create high-value opportunities for his receivers. The Los Angeles Rams offense ranked 31st in end-zone passes and 29th in deep targets. So, really, the Lions arent an offense that we should get too excited about outside of pure volume, albeit of the inefficient variety.

Detroit has the most vacated targets and air yards, which is at least great for TE1 T.J. Hockenson to see a massive boost in targets. The vast amount of opportunities also opens doors for DAndre Swift to catch more passes hes the teams second-leading returning receiver in addition to ancillary receivers like veteran Breshad Perriman and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Just be aware that many of these targets are not going to be of much value, so dont over-invest in Detroit receivers solely based on volume.

Jamaal Williams also has a chance to see a bigger workload working in tandem with Swift. The ex-Packers back could easily seize Adrian Petersons 52% of goal-line carries as the teams A-back.

Its crazy but factual: Marquez Valdes-Scantling finished with more air yards than Davante Adams. OK, Adams missed a few games which lent MVS the slight edge when it comes to raw totals, but this guy has become a complete afterthought in fantasy football. His 31% team air yards share is on the same level as guys like Chase Claypool, Marvin Jones and A.J. Brown, and his deep-ball percentage ranked 15th in the NFL.

Green Bay drafted rookie receiver Amari Rodgers in this years draft, but his style of play does not overlap at all with Valdes-Scantling. Rodgers played exclusively as the Clemson Tigers slot wideout, leading the nation in receptions (68) when lined up inside. His claim to fame was turning short passes into yards after the catch, as he finished first in that category in 2020. MVS finished sixth in the league in deep targets. If anything, Rodgers insertion into the offense will overlap with incumbent slot receiver Allen Lazard.

At the running back position, Jamaal Williams is out and A.J. Dillon is in as the teams RB2. Dillons fantasy buzz came crashing down after Aaron Jones re-signed with the team, but its fallen too far. Green Bay has a history of using two RBs, and Dillon could easily see a role at the goal line. Williams earned 38% of the teams goal-line carries in 2019, so Dillon should carve out a similar role.

Houston ranks fifth in vacated air yards and fourth in vacated targets, creating a situation for an unknown player to make a splash. Brandin Cooks will presumably take on his role as the teams No. 1 after leading the team in air yards share (29%) and target share (22%) in 2020.

But we want to know about sleepers that could emerge from this offense. Ive got two in mind: rookie wide receiver Nico Collins and veteran tight end Jordan Akins. Keke Coutee and Randall Cobb are going to cannibalize each others slot targets, leaving Collins to start on the outside opposite Cooks.

Collins measured at 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds at his pro day plenty of size to play on the outside at the NFL level. From 2018-2019, he finished second in contested-catch rate (63.2%), sixth in passer rating generated (120.8) and fourth in yards per target (18.2) among WRs in his draft class when targeted from an out-wide alignment. Collins also finished with 17 end-zone targets during his final season at Michigan.

Akins is more of a stretch, but hear me out: Houston moved on from veteran tight end Darren Fells, who consistently forced himself into a timeshare with Akins. At 29 years old, Akins fits the archetype of a Darren Waller or Logan Thomas an older tight end who breaks out well after their start in the NFL.

But what could be most telling about Akins potential is that he doesnt block like, ever. His 24% block snap rate was the lowest percentage at the tight end position for any starter.

As weird as it sounds, Akins has the athleticism and opportunity to be the tight end who jumps from total disregard to fantasy starter. Last year, he set a career-high in PFF receiving grade (74.6), which ranked 12th in the league. Since 2018, he ranks sixth in YAC/reception (6.0) among all tight ends.

And amid more competition last season in the Texans offense, Akins finished third in end-zone target share (12%).

Maybe its the summer fever getting to me, but Im not afraid to call Akins my breakout tight end of 2021.

T.Y Hilton is coming off his worst season to date career-low yards per route run (1.68) and at 32-years old he cannot be a player to target in fantasy football. Weve only seen him function as a consistent producer with Andrew Luck under center, and No. 12 isnt stepping into the Colts facility anytime soon.

But Hiltons losses are massive gains for other receivers in the Colts offense because he had an extremely attractive role last season. The veteran receiver commanded a top-12 end-zone/air yards share with little competition around him.

Fantasy gamers should fully expect Michael Pittman Jr. and/or Parris Campbell to eat heavily into Hiltons premium touches from a season ago. Pittmans rookie season was derailed by a serious calf injury, but we saw him deliver worthwhile fantasy performances later on. In Week 10, he caught seven balls for 101 yards. In the playoffs, he commanded a season-high nine targets and hauled in five for 90 yards.

Campbells career has been plagued by several injuries, but all signs suggest he is all systems go for 2021. He should take over as the teams starting slot receiver, which could be tantalizing for fantasy. New Colts quarterback Carson Wentz loves the slot.He owns the fifth-highest target rate to the slot over the past two years.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the third-most vacated targets and fourth-most vacated air yards from last season, so embrace the Travis Etienne wide receiver hype across social media. He is going to be heavily involved in the passing game.

If anything, take advantage of the negative buzz and get ETN while hes discounted because no one thinks he's going to see 15-plus carries per game. *Spoiler*: His body of work at Clemson told us that was going to be the case at the next level.

The vast majority of available opportunities in the offense also gives me an excuse to talk about another sleeper: wide receiver Collin Johnson. The 2020 fifth-rounder is a 6-foot-5 monster and finished second on the team in end-zone targets (8) despite playing only two games with at least a 50% snap share. He also led the team in yards per route run (1.60).

Taking Johnson in the last round of a best-ball draft is a great way to differentiate your roster.

Third time's the charm, right? The stage is set for Mecole Hardman to go nuclear in 2021 all that remains is for him to execute because theres a golden opportunity for him to progress with Patrick Mahomes. Sammy Watkins is long gone, and Kansas City didnt heavily invest in anyone else at the position.

Hardman tied Travis Kelce in deep targets (18) a season ago, and only Demarcus Robinson out-paced him in end-zone targets among the Chiefs ancillary WRs. The third-year wideout has a chance to see additional high-end targets in 2021, which he needs to capitalize on because hes never going to see an abnormally large target share playing alongside certified studs like Tyreek Hill and Kelce.

His passer rating generated when targeted (132.2) ranks No. 1 in the league among players with at least 100 targets. Hardman will have a chance to produce as long as he's connected to Mahomes.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran ice cold at the goal-line, which means his efficiency can only heat up in 2021. CEH was K.C.s primary goal-line back to start the 2020 season, but he went 0-7 on his efforts to hit paydirt.

The actual production is less important as we look toward the future the fact that he got the carries to start last season bodes well for him to reprise the role. And with a revamped offensive line, fantasy players can expect some strong positive touchdown regression for the second-year RB.

Nelson Agholors 36% end-zone target share is the highest by any player who switched teams this offseason. He and Darren Waller actually combined for 64% of the Raiders' end-zone targets in 2020.

With Agholor off to the New England Patriots, we should expect Waller to lead the team in end-zone targets in 2021. Hes also likely to challenge for the top spot in terms of raw target share based on his 27% target share last season, which ranked fourth-best among all positions (No. 1 at TE).

It's not clear who will step up behind him.Second-year wide receivers like Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards seem like the most logical candidates for expanded roles. I lean toward Edwards as the bigger threat in the end zone. I'm not exactly high on Ruggs entering the 2021 season, and Edwards has the more requisite size at 6-foot-3 to be a force in the end zone.

Ruggs is much more likely to operate as the teams deep threat. As a rookie, he finished second on the team in deep targets (18) behind Agholor. Veteran John Brown shouldnt be forgotten, either. Hes just one year removed from leading the Buffalo Bills in end-zone targets in 2019.

Regardless of preference, its worth taking stabs on any of the Raiders trio of wideouts late in drafts somebody else will have to catch passes in the offense behind Waller.

Theres a real chance third-round rookie Josh Palmer makes some noise in Year 1. Last years No. 3 receiver, Jalen Guyton, finished second on the team in 20-plus yard targets (20) and 13th overall in routes run. The former Tennessee standout is no stranger to hauling in deep targets. He was featured heavily downfield with a very high aDOT (17.1, 12th in 2020) at the collegiate level in addition to commanding a significant share of his teams end-zone targets (48%).

The end-zone prowess should serve him well considering Hunter Henry and his 12 end-zone targets last season are no longer in the picture. If Palmer can ascend to the No. 3 pass-catcher role for Justin Herbert, he could quickly become a fantasy contributor.

But the real value in the Chargers offense has to be No. 2 receiver Mike Williams. The big-bodied wideout took home the high-value triple crown last season, leading the team in air yards share (29%), end-zone target share (27%) and deep-target share (37%).

Receivers that command such a high level of premium targets should not be available where Williams is being drafted. He has to be one of fantasys best-kept secrets.

Going from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford will substantially elevate the fantasy production of all the Rams pass-catchers. As mentioned, Goff never gave his offensive personnel high-value targets. Case in point, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp each only saw five end-zone targets last season. They also both ranked outside the top-45 in team air yards share.Despite this, each finished as a solid WR2 option in fantasy. With Stafford entrenched as the starter, the days of Woods and Kupp being viewed as safe-floor options are long over. This year, they're going to be dangerous.

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Fantasy Football: Breaking down high-value touches and targets for all 32 NFL teams | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections - Pro Football...