Nuclear Power Safety Concerns

Interviewee: Thomas Bollyky, Senior Fellow for Global Health, Economics, and Development, Council on Foreign Relations Interviewer: Toni Johnson, Senior Editor/Senior Staff Writer June 22, 2012

The Rio+20 conference on sustainable development is unlikely to deliver the sweeping international environmental mandates that followed the original high-level environmental summit of 1992 in Rio, which set the international agenda for the next two decades. Much has changed since then, from the rise of emerging economies to increasing urbanization, the global financial crisis and "summit fatigue," says CFR's Thomas Bollyky, who also notes that Rio+20 comes "on the heels of a series of global summits that produced little." He says that there is possible space to negotiate on sustainable technology cooperation and transfer and lowering trade barriers to environmental services. "Relative success, or at least a somewhat positive outcome, would be a perception of the Rio+20 conference that does not entirely sap the momentum around sustainable development and small-scale initiatives that create momentum for the future," he says. "We may see tangible, productive proposals emerging at the national, city, and state level."

How would you compare the 2012 Rio summit with the one twenty years ago?

The original Rio conference introduced the concept of sustainable development and made climate change a standing issue on the world's agenda for world leaders to discuss. It produced treaties and multilateral institutions to help shape international cooperation on climate change, biodiversity, desertification, and global funding to address these challenges. It was really met, at the time, with tremendous optimism. The 1992 conference was attended by [then] President George H.W. Bush, and environmentalism was an issue in the U.S. presidential election; more European leaders were there as well.

The situation now is quite different, and a much more difficult terrain. There is has been tremendous population growth; unprecedented urbanization, particularly in low- and middle- income countries; and a rise of emerging economies, all combining to put pressure on the environment and social systems. Energy needs are predicted to grow 50 percent by 2035 and water demand to grow about the same rate over the same period. Cities in China and India alone will add five hundred million people to their urban populations in the next twenty years. Throw that into the mix with the gloomy economic situation, and major leaps forward at this conference were just non-starters.

There's tremendous fatigue with summits and a lack of consensus, particularly on these broad, systemic issues.

The one other element is summit fatigue. There's just not a good history of a global summit of this kind, with a broad agenda, actually delivering change in how the world does its economic or energy business. It is also coming on the heels of a series of global summits that produced little, including the Copenhagen Climate Summit in 2009 and similar gatherings in Cancun and Durbin. It's coming on the heels of a UN general assembly on non-communicable diseases last year, which was also meant to replicate what was perceived as a successful summit on HIV years ago. There's tremendous fatigue with summits and a lack of consensus, particularly on these broad, systemic issues, on how responsibilities and costs should be shared by major powers.

What's significant in terms of what's on the table in the communiqu to be debated?

First, there will be a recasting of the notion of sustainable development, broadening it to encompass the concepts of poverty eradication and social inclusion--which is really about income and wealth disparity, which is growing throughout the world, in middle income countries in particular.

The other strong theme in this communiqu is setting up a process to negotiate sustainable development goals, which are meant to mirror or complement the Millennium Development Goals when they expire in 2015. These goals are intended to provide a yardstick for this conversation as it proceeds around sustainable development, a framework for that discussion, and a flag to rally civil society supporters around. These goals are expected to cover topics connected to sustainable consumption and production, particularly with regard to oceans, food security, agricultural production, access to water, and sustainable cities. It will be a challenge to negotiate though. These issues are complex and politically contentious, and you'll need these goals to be both universal--to apply to both developed and developing countries--and comprehensive.

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Nuclear Power Safety Concerns