Emmy Experts Typing: Will any late release break through in the chaotic limited categories? – Gold Derby

Phil Caruso/HBO; National Geographic for Disney/Dusan Martincek

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing,a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and ExpertsJoyce EngandChristopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race via Slack, of course. This week, we reassess the unsettled limited series races.Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! If the first Monday in May is reserved for the Met Gala, I can only assume the first Friday in May is all about the 2023 limited series Emmy race. (Dont worry, I didnt pull a muscle on that stretch.) That classification is maybe the most chaotic of the main Emmys races this year were long past the days of The Queens Gambit and Mare of Easttown. At the moment, according to our odds, Monster, Black Bird, Beef, Fleishman Is in Trouble, White House Plumbers and Daisy Jones & the Six make up the expected list of limited series nominees. Looking at that list, Im left with one thought: Sure? Im a flagship member of the Fleishman fan club it was probably my favorite new show of 2022 and Daisy Jones is a banger, but Im not entirely sure if my passion extends to the academys tastes. As for the others: Monster is a blockbuster hit and makes sense, Beef has the Film Twitter buzz and reviews (the controversy around David Choe notwithstanding), and White House Plumbers debuted this week and just feels like a nominee even if the reception has merely been fine. So what is perhaps a foolish move at least certainly based on our odds I went ahead and put A Small Light in there ahead of White House Plumbers due to its subject matter, reviews and seeming passion from people who have watched it. But I still have the other five represented despite not feeling all that confident in my faves Fleishman and Daisy Jones, meaning shows like Love & Death, The Patient, George & Tammy and Swarm, among others, are outside of my picks. Im sure youve got a better handle on this one or at least better predictions. Help me us out here, before we look at those wide-open acting races.

joyceeng: Not to sound like a broken record, but I still think/hope it will be five slots again so I dont have to pick a sixth show. This is the softest the limited field has been with no consensus or a stone-cold frontrunner since 2018, when The Alienist snagged a spot (no shade). I just re-added Obi-Wan Kenobi for sheer visibility alone. Its hardly a Star Wars stans fave or the best Star Wars series of the cycle (hi, Andor), but I think the detractors loudness has obscured the fact that it had a totally decent critical reception. It also won a guild award over the winter, for sound mixing, and got a DGA nomination something neither Monster nor Black Bird, the predicted top two, received. Obi-Wan will also be a tech player, like The Alienist (it got six noms and won supporting visual effects), which could help push it over the line with everyone voting in the program categories. Well see how the rest of the month goes, but Id be more confident about A Small Light had it dropped earlier. The restricted ballot would help it, but I can also see it snagging acting nominations and missing series if not enough people watch it in time. Ditto for White House Plumbers, which is not exactly shaping up to be HBOs next May Monday hit a la Chernobyl. This is what happened to The Staircase, which premiered a year ago today and earned two nominations altogether, for Colin Firth and Toni Collette. Right now I have White House Plumbers getting three acting nominations but not series. The acting categories are equally nightmarish to try to fill out after the top two or three in each, which is how Ive wound up with five Beef and five Monster performers. (These predictions are not sponsored by Netflix.) We need to send preemptive kudos to whoever nails both supporting categories.

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Christopher Rosen: Im not going to lie, I did think of putting Michael Learned into my supporting actress picks as well for Monster if only because it does kind of feel like these acting categories will be loaded with performances from the few shows voters watched and liked. But as it stands, Ive kept my Monster love to the four expected contenders. Im with you on Beef though, as it seems quite likely both Ashley Park and Maria Bello will rate with voters alongside Steven Yeun, Ali Wongand Young Mazino. I also think Black Bird will grab multiple acting nominations, with Paul Walter Hauser, Taron Egertonand Ray Liotta making the cut. Ive been rewatching that series in preparation for an upcoming interview and its so good I also started to wonder if Sepideh Moafi could land among the supporting actress nominees. Shes an absolute breakout and if Black Bird somehow sustains four acting nominations, I think she would be the choice over Greg Kinnear (who I know you had in there at one point). Ill give you a couple of other supporting names to consider: Liev Schreiber for A Small Light and Jennifer Ehle for Dead Ringers. Im not sold on Dead Ringers getting in for limited series, but I do think Rachel Weisz could straight win Best Actress and Ehle could come along for the ride as a nominee. What are you thinking in the lead acting races here?

joyceeng: Dead Ringers and Swarm feel like sole actress plays to me, and as Ive mentioned, the former is a tough sit, so I can see lots of viewers bailing. I have thought about plugging in Schreiber. The erstwhile Ray Donovan is a perennial nominee (nine noms, zero wins) and would be an easy name-check. I did have Kinnear and Liotta way back in the B.B. (Before Beef) days as placeholders, but Im not sure Black Bird is strong enough to support noms outside of Egerton and PWH. It underperformed in the winter, and while its a solid show, it doesnt feel like it has generated a ton of passion. Ive made no changes to my lead lineups, which means they are definitely wrong. I still have our Beef duo in first by virtue of them having the strongest show. Twitter will have you believe that the Choe controversy and the Beef teams subsequent statement nuked all of their chances of even getting in, but the internet is an echo chamber and the show is one of the few that continues to be raved by Famous People. The consensus is that lead actress is Jessica Chastains to lose since she won SAG, and lots of people have likened her possible win to her Oscar run a default victory in a weak year but she hasnt faced any of the spring contenders yet and the only potential Emmy rival she beat at SAG was Emily Blunt. Well get a better idea of whos win-competitive after noms, but she could end up as a lone nominee for George & Tammy or its only above-the-line nomination. Last year, I doubt many people had Lily James as the runner-up to Amanda Seyfried in Phase 1, but most of us not you! did in Phase 2 after Pam & Tommy surprised with 10 noms, including series, and Maid was snubbed in series, and obviously Chastain missed too. Its been three weeks since you pulled your trademark flip-flop on The Last Thing He Told Me and immediately slotted in Jennifer Garner, as youre wont to do. Do you still have her? Or have you moved on to another about-face fave?

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Christopher Rosen: Youll be shocked to know I have abandoned ship on Garner. Its hard to know what release schedule is right nowadays for any given show, but it does feel like The Last Thing He Told Me wouldve greatly benefited from an all-episodes drop rather than its slow rollout the stronger episodes are in the back of the season and I do wonder if the simplicity of the mystery is enough to hold viewers attention across many weeks. Besides, I have to fill out actress field with my other two about-face faves: Bel Powley for A Small Light and Sydney Sweeney for Reality. Ive fallen into the trap before of picking a TV movie performer in the limited series acting category see Ben Foster for last years HBO movie The Survivor but this time I feel like itll happen! Reality is really quite good: Its a real-time thriller that uses the real-life transcripts of Reality Winners arrest to create a legitimately tense drama. Sweeney is remarkable here a totally different performance than either of her Emmy-nominated turns last year for Euphoria and The White Lotus. Shes able to generate such empathy and mystery with Reality Winner and I think if people watch this one with Sweeney as the star and an advantageous running time of barely 90 minutes, they probably will shell get in. I know, I know. I can hear you laughing at me, so Ill leave you to finish this off with one last question: If not Yeun, then who might win?

joyceeng: The only shocking thing about you adding Sweeney now is that you didnt have her in the place. If you dont have Yeun in first, then you probably have Evan Peters. His SAG loss to Sam Elliott was a red flag, but it could also be a fluke: We know SAG-AFTRA loves veterans and the Yellowstone (RIP) universe. Emmy voters have different tastes and they didnt touch 1883 last year outside of three craft nominations. Itd be wild, but not undeserved, if Peters were to win his second Emmy only two years later after waiting so long just to be nominated. If he does win, I hope his third Emmy will be for the Mare of Easttown prequel spin-off in my head: Zabel of Upper Darby.

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Emmy Experts Typing: Will any late release break through in the chaotic limited categories? - Gold Derby