Building the future | Columnists – San Mateo Daily Journal

For centuries people have been trying to predict the future, and with good reason. Personally, if I knew for certain what the future held, Id arrange some way to bet on what is a sure thing. Because of all of the upheaval we are experiencing from COVID-19 and because of our governments unprecedented response many of us are more desperate than ever to know what the future has in store. Unfortunately, because many aspects of our current situation are unique, we cannot really rely on the past as a guide, thus complicating efforts to see into our future.

Difficult though it is, there are some people whose livelihoods depend upon their ability to predict at least some aspects of the future. Restaurants, for instance, were created based on predictions of how well theyd be received. Because of COVID-19, once again their owners are frantically reading the tea leaves, trying to understand what lies ahead and whether they can even remain open. To stay open, restaurant owners need to know how long itll be before their customers will return in large numbers, and, unfortunately, no one can say just when that will be.

Restaurateurs arent alone. For instance, predicting the future is a key part of what real estate developers do. Large developers dont build for today, but instead build based on a future day, some years in the future, when their project will be completed and can be leased. For instance, back in mid-2014 when Greystar first proposed the apartment building that stands on Jefferson Avenue at Franklin Street now known as the Cardinal Apartments building they must have anticipated that there would still be a need for the buildings 175 apartments some years down the road (it opened in late 2019, after five and a half years).

While our economy was humming along and demand for both housing and office space was strong, making such predictions was probably easy. No longer, however. For instance, after some two months of office workers having to work from home, many probably assumed that office work would soon return to some semblance of normal. However, Mark Zuckerberg, Facebooks chief executive, recently announced that Facebook would allow many of its employees to make their work-from-home situations permanent. If other area companies end up following suit, this would have huge implications for our commercial real estate developers. Just possibly, it could cause demand for additional office space in our area to vanish almost overnight.

If employees no longer need to commute to a central office, they would no longer need to live in the area. Some of Facebooks employees have already left Silicon Valley, and, given our high cost of living, I expect that more may follow suit. A large enough shift to working from home could thus soften our need for additional housing, and potentially cause demand for new housing projects to dry up.

Complicating the equation is the fact that our demand for housing currently outstrips our supply. Depending on how many people choose to uproot their families and leave the area, we might see some of the not-yet-finished housing projects having to struggle to find tenants.

Projects already underway, such as Greystar IV (the 350-unit apartment building well on its way to completion at 1409 El Camino Real in Redwood City), will likely be finished regardless, since a completed building in a soft market is better than a half-finished one with no hope of generating revenue. But I have to imagine that developers of office and residential projects that have yet to break ground or that have yet to be approved are rushing to their crystal balls and reassessing their projects prospects in the light of our new, uncertain future.

Not all projects have a murky future. For instance, the office project being built at 1180 Main St. (across from the Main & Elm restaurant) will likely go ahead, since that building has been preleased to the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative. But one has to wonder about proposed developments such Greystars large South Main Mixed-Use project (which would replace Towne Ford and Hopkins Acura, among others). Id have also put the proposal to redevelop the Sequoia Station shopping center in the questionable bucket, but it seems that Lowe, the projects developer, has told the city that they want to press on.

Because large construction projects take a long time to complete, thanks to the many that are currently underway, well be seeing construction activity for the next couple of years. But as they continue, Ill be watching those projects that are currently either proposed, or are approved but not yet started. If those proceed, itll be an indication that our real estate developers see growth in our future, and that our future is one on which they are willing to bet real money.

Greg Wilson is the creator of Walking Redwood City, a blog inspired by his walks throughout Redwood City and adjacent communities. He can be reached at greg@walkingRedwoodCity.com. Follow Greg on Twitter @walkingRWC.

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Building the future | Columnists - San Mateo Daily Journal