States predict inmates' future crimes

AP Photo/ Bill Gorman In this photo taken Nov. 14, 2014, 71-year old Diana Miller, who agreed to be interviewed by The Associated Press under her middle and married names, talks about her rape by Arkansas parolee Milton Thomas. The elderly widow says that, Thomas who was mowing a nearby lawn, asked for a glass of water and then forced his way in and raped her. He pushed her on her bed with enough force to knock her front teeth loose she said. You realize that youre a parolee, this is going to mean youre going to spend the rest of your days behind bars, she told Thomas. She said he laughed and went back to mowing. Thomas is currently in custody at the North Central Unit at Calico Rock, Arkansas. His trial date is expected to be March 2015.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (AP) On a hot Friday last July, a parolee was mowing a lawn in a small cul-de-sac on the west side of the city when he stopped to ask for a glass of water.

The 70-year-old widow whose yard he was mowing told him to wait on her porch. Instead, she said, he jerked the storm door open, slammed her against the wall, forced her into the bedroom and raped her. The parolee pushed her with such force, she said, that her front teeth were knocked loose.

Then he went back to mowing the lawn.

Milton Thomas, 58, said he's not guilty. His trial is set for March.

Thomas has been in and out of Arkansas prisons since 2008 for nonviolent crimes, including check fraud. After he got out in November 2013, the state predicted he was a low risk to commit another crime, Thomas said, and assigned him the least amount of supervision.

His low-risk prediction would have been calculated based on answers to a lengthy questionnaire, the latest tool among the nation's court systems to try to predict the likelihood that an offender will commit a crime again.

Across the country, states have turned to a data-driven movement to drive down prison populations, reduce recidivism and save billions of dollars. One emerging practice is the use of risk-and-needs assessment tools, which are questionnaires that explore issues beyond criminal history. They are based on surveys of offenders making their way through the justice system.

Supporters cite some research, such as a 1987 Rand Corp. study that said the surveys can be up to 70 percent accurate in predicting the likelihood of repeat offenses, if they are used correctly. Even the Rand study, one of the seminal pieces of research on the subject, was skeptical of the surveys' effectiveness.

It's nearly impossible to measure the surveys' impact on recidivism because they are only part of broader efforts.

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States predict inmates' future crimes