2014 Fantasy Football: Red Zone Targets Statistical Trends

Updated JUL 07, 2014 2:53p ET

The red zone. Its only 20 yards, but a distance which glues people to their high-def televisions. Heck, a channel pays homage to the landscape. When an offense resides inside their opponent's 20-yard line, youll quickly reference your fantasy team(s) to see which player to pull for when a touchdown looms.

The word target is popular term tossed around the fantasy football world, too. Its easy to review who racked up the most receptions, but its going beyond the box score to dissect how many times the quarterback threw to a certain player.

When you combine the two expressions, red zone targets, the metric can provide loads of fantasy-relevant information before the season heats up.

The cream obviously rises to the top in these scenarios. Out of all the wide receivers, Calvin Johnson led the way with 26 targets inside the red zone, which was 30.2 percent of the Lions RZT (red zone targets). Wes Welker was second to Megatron with 24 RTZ (26.1 percent of Denvers RZT). The big name that has fallen in the receiver rankings this year, Larry Fitzgerald, was fourth with 22 RZT (40 percent of Carson Palmers red zone passes).

Much like the WRs, the tight end position is one where there is no surprise at the top: Jimmy Graham. The Saints tight end recorded 24 RZT (39.3 percent of Brees RZT). Second among TEs, Vernon Davis, had 19 RZT. Jordan Cameron tied Davis, but Cameron had a disadvantage of three different quarterbacks passing to him throughout the season. The next two names may surprise you. Greg Olsen of the Panthers and Delanie Walker of the Titans tallied 17 RZT.

Looking back at 2012 numbers and projecting 2013 success, Eric Decker had the most red zone targets with 25 looks from Peyton Manning. The following season, Decker finished with 23 RZT, the third-most in the NFL. However, this year, I would expect a significant drop in the rankings for Decker with the combination of Geno Smith and Mike Vick throwing him passes for the Jets.

Reliability becomes a large factor for the amount of red zone targets a player receives. Much like a crucial third or fourth down conversion, the quarterback will want a sure-handed teammate in a situation where every play could determine the final outcome. So, it shouldnt surprise you to find receivers like A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, and Fitzgerald on the top of RZT lists.

As for the 2012 red zone target stats, four of the wide receivers in the top five RZT category concluded 2013 in the top 10 for receiving touchdowns. Looking forward, that would mean that Calvin Johnson, Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald, A.J. Green, and Dez Bryant should produce double-digit TDs. Though that conclusion wont shock many, players like Julian Edelman and Keenan Allen are just a couple names among the top 10 RZT from 2013 to keep an eye on for this fantasy football season.

One other name that stood out among wide receivers from the 2013 RZT rankings was Cecil Shorts. In just 13 starts with the Jaguars, Shorts was targeted 16 times inside the 20-yard line and 11 times inside the 10, last season. With Justin Blackmon suspended, again, Shorts is the top receiver on Jacksonvilles depth chart. Shorts average draft position of 77.5 a year ago should definitely rise in 2014.

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2014 Fantasy Football: Red Zone Targets Statistical Trends