CURL: Fear and trembling for Democrats on Capitol Hill

How bad are things in Congress right now for Democrats? So bad that a guy who has been there 58 years is calling it quits. I mean, cmon, where does he have to go?

Theyre dropping like flies up on Capitol Hill. So far, nine House Democrats have announced theyre retiring; two just flat-out resigned, see ya, were outta here.

That 58-year congressman, John Dingell, had this to say about the modern-day American legislature: I find serving in the House to be obnoxious. The enormous expense of money made by people in the course of the campaign has not been well spent in the interest of the public.

Shocker. Congress is a dismal dystopia loaded with disgruntled dyspeptics. Huh. And it took him 58 years to figure out that?

With winter giving way to spring, all the talk is now turning to the 2014 mid-terms, whos up, whos down, whos in, whos out. The consensus across the board is that Democrats are most decidedly down and definitely out. None of the lofty political pundits sees the party of the president picking up enough seats to take over the House. Most predict Dems lose seats; some say they lose a bunch.

More, talk is beginning to swirl that Democrats might just lose their majority in the Senate. Already, two longtime legislators have bailed resigned, not retired. They looked at the landscape, may have even gazed into the future, and said, nuh uh. And inside the chilled Senate halls, those too afraid to run are frozen in fear, with nowhere to turn.

None, for instance, are turning to the leader of their party, President Obama. Gallup puts his approval rating at just 44 percent, with disapproval at 53 percent (he took roughly 53 percent of the vote when he won in 2008). Hes toxic and, in record time, already a lame duck. No one needs him as an ally and, frankly, like your kids on a trip to the mall, no one wants to been seen anywhere near him.

The playing field is clearly tilted toward Republicans this time around. Sean Trende, who not surprisingly covers electoral trends for realclearpolitics.com, says there are 17 competitive Senate races, 15 of which are held by Democrats, two of which are held by Republicans.

In a complicated analysis called a Monte Carlo simulation, Trende sees this trend: Democrats lose, big. This is a grim picture for Senate Democrats, suggesting that the president would have to get his approval above 50 percent by Election Day before they would be favored to hold the chamber, he wrote in a piece titled How Likely Are Democrats to Lose the Senate?

Sure, there are scenarios and simulation models in which Democrats hold the Senate, or even gain seats. But, he notes: There are also, however, situations where the election turns into an absolute debacle for Democrats.

See the original post:
CURL: Fear and trembling for Democrats on Capitol Hill