How Geothermal Heat Pumps Can Soar Like Solar

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Geothermal Heat Pumps (GHP) are a niche market. They shouldnt be.

A Better Mousetrap?

Ralph Waldo Emerson never said Build a better mousetrap, and the world will beat a path to your door. The mousetrap that likely inspired themisquotewas invented seven years after his death. Unfortunately, many people take it literally. GHPs have all the hallmarks of a better mousetrap: They do the job of heating and cooling a building more efficiently than any other option. Despite the larger up-front cost, they are a mature technology and usually the most economic option in for buildings that can accommodate them.

Not only can GHPs cut energy costs for heating and cooling by up to 80%, they can also provide other benefits such as essentially free hot water in cooling mode, lower reliance on fossil fuels, and the elimination of above ground outdoor equipment. These advantages have earned GHPs a small but dedicated cult of true believers, but not broad market acceptance.

The world has not yet beaten a path to the GHP door. Instead, GHPs have a slim and only modestly growing market share. The North American geothermal market was only $102 million in 2012. Frost and Sullivanprojectsitto reach $148 million by 2017. The entire market for climate control products was $13 billion in 2012, and they projectit to reach $15 billion in 2017. That gives GHPs a 0.8% market share in 2012, growing to a 1% market share in 2017. While the GHP market is projected to grow at a 7.8% annualized rate, much of that is due to overall market growth. GHPs market share is only expected to grow at a 4.7% annual rate.

Although that estimate of market share is biased downward because not all buildings can accommodate GHPs, this does not bias the calculations of annual growth rate in market share. Less than 5% annual market share growth is clearly not the type of markettransformationmany would expect from a better mousetrap.

Siege Mentality

I struck a few raw nerves when I asked if air source heat pumps are a threat to geothermal heat pump supplierslast month, despite the fact that I answered my own question with a No.

Except in moderate climates, super-insulated homes, or situations where the installation of a geothermal heat pump (GHP) would be particularly difficult, GHPs have the better economics. This is despite recent advances in air source heat pump (ASHP) technology, which led me to ask the question in the first place. ASHPs dont provide hot water, while man GHP systems can. Also, as the recent heavy snows in the Northeast demonstrated, there are some advantages to having a heat exchanger which is not exposed to the elements (see pic).

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How Geothermal Heat Pumps Can Soar Like Solar