Group of voters still on the fence as election nears – Arkansas Online

WASHINGTON -- A small but potentially significant group of voters say they remain truly undecided less than three weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

They have been derided as uninformed or lying by those who cannot fathom still being undecided, but conversations with a sampling of these voters reveal a complicated tug of war.

Many, like Amanda Jaronowski, are longtime Republicans who say they're wrestling with what they see as a choice between a Democrat whose policies they cannot stomach and a Republican incumbent whose personality revolts them. Some voted for third-party candidates in 2016 because they were repelled by their choices -- Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton -- and they're thinking of doing so again.

Jaronowski, of suburban Cleveland, supports Trump's policies and fears her business could be gutted if Democrat Joe Biden is elected.

But she says she abhors Trump personally, leaving her on the fence about who will get her vote.

It's a "moral dilemma," Jaronowski said as she paced her home one recent evening after pouring a glass of sauvignon blanc.

"It would be so easy for him [Trump] to win my vote if he could just be a decent human being," she had said earlier during a focus group session.

While polls show there are far fewer on-the-fence voters this year than the unusually high number in 2016, the Trump and Biden campaigns each believe they still can win over numbers that matter.

John Welton, 40, a Presbyterian minister from Winfield, Kan., who has spent much of his career moving from parish to parish, is also undecided. His political views, he said, have been shaped in part by watching how trade deals have hurt once-vibrant manufacturing communities and his congregants' livelihoods, as well as by his own "pro-Second Amendment" views.

Welton said he is turned off by Biden's support for tighter gun restrictions. But he said he is also put off by Trump's bullying and demeaning of opponents on Twitter and his divisive rhetoric.

On the other hand, Welton said he has been pleasantly surprised that Trump has made good on his campaign pledge to bring U.S. troops home from Iraq and Afghanistan, though thousands still remain.

In 2016, Welton ended up voting for Clinton, but barely. He circled the block at his polling place before making a decision. This year, he's hoping a second debate between Trump and Biden will offer him some clarity.

"I remain pretty swayable," he said.

Cathy Badalamenti, 69, an independent from Lombard, Ill., is also struggling with her vote once again. In 2016, she voted for a third-party candidate after twice supporting Democrat Barack Obama.

"I'm not happy with anybody," she said of her choices this time. She said that's especially hard in a family of ardent Trump supporters who have balked at her indecision.

"Believe me, my son, my kids are looking at me and thinking, 'How can you not like Trump?'" she said, describing difficult Sunday night dinners in which she tries to redirect the conversation from politics to the Cubs.

Badalamenti credits Trump for a booming economy before the pandemic, but she said she's turned off by his knee-jerk reactions, worried about his interactions with world leaders, and feeling that he should think more before he speaks and tweets.

Biden worries her, too: "I think he's trying to make a good effort, but at the same time he doesn't know what's -- he's only being told what's going on."

'DIFFERENT ATTRIBUTES'

Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who has been running focus groups with undecided voters throughout the election campaign, including one Thursday night that included Jaronowski, sees a common refrain among many of the undecideds.

"They're judging on two completely different attributes, and they can't decide which is more important to them," he said. "They don't like Trump as a person, but they don't feel badly about his administration or his policies. They really like Joe Biden as a person, but they are so nervous about what he's going to do if he were elected. And so they can't figure out which is more important to them."

With two historically unpopular candidates, the 2016 race produced unusually large numbers of voters -- double digits on the eve of the election -- who told pollsters they were either undecided or planned to vote for third-party candidates. Many of those voters rallied around Trump in the final weeks of the campaign, helping to hand him his victory.

Polls suggest there are far fewer on-the-fence voters this time around, but both campaigns believe they have the edge in an election where every vote could count.

"Frankly, I like our chances with them because President Trump has delivered results," said Nick Trainer, Trump's director of battleground strategy. He said that just like in 2016, those who identify as undecided tend to be right-leaning and support conservative policies such as lower taxes and a strong military.

Biden's campaign, which is ahead in polls nationally and in a number of battleground states, voices similar optimism and argues that those who are undecided historically break for the challenger.

Having so few undecided voters to move "is problematic if your candidate is not leading," said Becca Siegel, the Biden campaign's chief analytics officer. She adds that the campaign's focus on unity and bringing the country together is "extremely persuasive to this group."

The Biden campaign has hope of winning over people like Jaronowski, a guidance counselor who comes from a family of lifelong Republicans.

Jaronowski, 37, who lives in Independence, Ohio, said she ended up supporting Clinton in 2016. Jaronowski said she was repulsed by Trump, who she said she hates "with the fire of a thousand suns." But it was hard nonetheless, she said.

This year, though she opposes Democratic policies, she said she has deep respect for Biden, whom she calls "a very good man."

But she and her husband own a consumer debt-buying company and fear that a President Biden could cancel that debt, which amounts to tens of millions of dollars.

"Voting in Biden, that's a very scary thing personally," she said, adding that the decision would be far easier if she didn't think he was such a good person.

Others are making their own calculations.

Sam Hillyer, 35, an Arkansan who lives in Fayetteville, voted for third-party candidate Gary Johnson in 2016.

This time, he said, "it's down to either Donald Trump; Jo Jorgensen, the Libertarian candidate; or possibly not voting in the presidential and voting for the other candidates." Hillyer, a dispatcher for a trucking company, has written off Biden, convinced that the Democrat would raise taxes and take a more interventionist approach to foreign policy. And, he said, it "doesn't help with all the new kind of shady scandals popping up."

Hillyer said he closely aligns with Jorgensen on most issues but rejects the candidate's support for abortion rights.

Living in a strongly Republican state, he said, gives him more freedom than if he lived in a battleground state with electoral votes that are up for grabs, in which case he would vote for Trump without hesitation to try to stop Biden.

For now, he said, "I go back and forth maybe a couple times a day."

In this Thursday, Oct. 16, 2020, photo undecided voter Rebecca Westrate poses for a photo at her home in Round Lake, Ill. Four years ago, undecided voters late support for Donald Trump helped push him to victory. While there are fewer on-the-fence voters this time around, a small but potentially significant group say they remain truly undecided less than three weeks before the November 3 election. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

This Friday, Oct. 16, 2020, image provided Amanda Jaronowski shows her in Cleveland, Ohio. The lifelong Republican who lives in the suburbs of Cleveland supports the president's policies and fears her business could be gutted if Democrat Joe Biden wins in November. But she abhors Donald Trump personally, leaving her on the fence. (Joy Lewis Photography via AP)

In this Saturday, Oct. 17, 2020, photo Cathy Badalamenti poses for a portrait in her Lombard, Ill., home. Badalamenti has also struggled with her vote once again. In 2016, the Independent eschewed both Trump and Clinton and voted for a third-party candidate, despite having voting twice for former president Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

In this Friday, Oct. 16, 2020, photo undecided voter Tracye Stewart holds her official Virginia ballot in her office in Richmond, Va., Friday Oct. 16, 2020. Stewart, who voted for Donald Trump in 2016, said that shes more ideologically in line with Trump than Democratic presidential candidate former Vice President Joe Biden. But her regular, and sometimes tearful, conversations with a friend shes known since 3rd grade has given her pause. Stewarts ballot remains on her desk at home unfilled. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)

This Friday, Oct. 16, 2020, image provided Amanda Jaronowski shows her in Cleveland, Ohio. Jaronowski is part of a small but potentially significant group of voters who say they remain truly undecided less than three weeks before the November 3 election. (Joy Lewis Photography via AP)

In this Saturday, Oct. 17, 2020, photo Cathy Badalamenti poses for a portrait at in her Lombard, Ill., home. Badalamenti has also struggled with her vote once again. In 2016, the Independent eschewed both Trump and Clinton and voted for a third-party candidate, despite having voting twice for former president Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

In this Thursday, Oct. 16, 2020, photo undecided voter Rebecca Westrate poses for a photo at her home in Round Lake, Ill. Four years ago, undecided voters late support for Donald Trump helped push him to victory. While there are fewer on-the-fence voters this time around, a small but potentially significant group say they remain truly undecided less than three weeks before the November 3 election. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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Group of voters still on the fence as election nears - Arkansas Online