The millennial-driven housing boom is just getting under way, and analyst Rohit Seth at Truist said Friday its time to buy the stocks of certain home builders ahead of an expected expansion of that boom next year.

Seth upgraded D.R. Horton Inc. DHI, -0.13%, PulteGroup Inc. PHM, +0.09% and Toll Brothers Inc. TOL, -0.36% to buy, after being at hold for most of 2020.

Seth also boosted his stock price targets for those home builders, to $100 from $58 for D.R. Horton, to $60 from $32 for Pulte and to $60 from $45 for Toll.

He also reiterated his buy rating on Skyline Champion Corp. SKY, +1.06% while lifting his price target to $36 from $32, and kept his hold rating on Lennar Corp. LEN, -0.70% but raised his price target to $93 from $62.

We believe the millennial-driven housing boom has significant runway, as the largest cohort of the largest generation heads into their prime home-buying years (2020-2025), Seth wrote in a note to clients.

See related: New-home construction surges to post-Great Recession high in October, driven by rise in single-family starts.

He listed four reasons why, after a strong 2020, the housing market will be even stronger in 2021:

1)The millennial tailwind should pick up speed in 2021

The largest wave of millennials is still on the horizon, and now has pent up cash to burn, more urgency to buy homes in the burbs on WFH, and potentially higher FHFA loan limits looming early next year, Seth wrote.

He said he believes the home builders that are in best position to take advantage of this set up are those well positioned in the entry-level market segment that can continue to supply homes at affordable price points. He believes D.R. Horton is the benchmark play on the millennial wave next year.

2) Real-estate savvy baby boomers should bounce back from a COVID-19-driven pause

Seth believes older baby boomers will drive demand toward the lagging active adult, move-up and luxury market segments. He said PulteGroup is well positioned to take advantage of this demand, as its made-to-order business model and current pricing power should support margin expansion and higher returns on capital. He believes Toll Brothers will also benefit given its exposure to the luxury market.

3) Home prices should rise even faster

House prices are likely to accelerate as production has just started to ramp up to fulfill backlogs, replenish tight home inventory and shore up the finished-lot supply following a stronger-than-expected year, Seth wrote.

Also read: Existing-home sales soar despite record-low inventory.

While higher home prices should benefit investors in stick builders, he believes its just a matter of time until higher home prices crush affordability, which should shift demand for affordable homes to the manufactured home market. He said Skyline is the leader in that market.

A stick built home refers to traditional wood-framed homes built to order.

4) Borrowing rates should remain very low

We believe mortgage rates should remain near rock-bottom levels, in the short-term, given prevailing monetary policy, which clears the way for the millennial theme to play out as hoped, Seth wrote. Read more about Federal Reserve policy.

The SPDR S&P Homebuilders exchange-traded fund XHB, -0.12% has rallied 25.5% year to date through Friday afternoon, while the S&P 500 index SPX, -0.67% has advanced 10.7%.

Link:
It's time buy these home builder stocks as part of the millennial-driven housing boom, analyst says - MarketWatch

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Read more:
Global Manufactured Housing Market 2019 Trends, Market Share, Industry Size, Opportunities, Analysis and Forecast To 2025 - PRnews Leader

By VERNON ROBISON

The Progress

If the City of Mesquite can keep up its focus on its strategic plan, it could see more than 600 new workforce housing units built over the next two years.

That is what Mesquite Development Service Director Richard Secrist reported to the City Council at a meeting held Tuesday, Nov. 10.

During a presentation on the findings of the Citys Workforce Housing Task Force, Secrist tallied through a list of affordable and workforce housing projects already in the pipeline for the city.

Projects that are currently under construction included 48 apartment units being built on E. Mesquite Blvd. Also under construction are four units at Triangle Townhomes on 755 W. Old Mill.

Another 310 units have already been approved but are not yet under construction, Secrist said. These are in The Trails of Mesquite project proposed on W. Pioneer Blvd. near the Mesquite Ford dealership.

Another 234 units are ready to apply for architectural and site plan review with the city. These include 200 Nevada Rural Housing Authority (NRHA) units at Hillside Drive, 18 proposed units on Hardy Way, 12 units planned at S. Grapevine, and 4 units at Desert Drive.

None of this counted the 96 units that are in thye early planning stage by the NRHA for another project on Hafen Lane, Secrist added.

If all of these are brought to completion, it would meet one of the targets of the taskforce: building at least 435 new rental units in the community to meet existing demand, Secrist said.

In his report, Secrist reviewed that the City Council had begun a strategic planning process in 2019. One of the primary goals identified in that process was to prepare a plan to develop workforce and affordable housing for Mesquite.

A taskforce was organized to look at this issue and come back with recommendations on how to deal with it, Secrist said.

The first thing that taskforce did was agree upon a definition of workforce housing. Secrist said that the group adopted the NRHA definition as housing designed for people making 60-120 percent of the median income for the county where they reside.

However, a slight alteration to this definition had to be made, Secrist explained. In Clark County the median income is $70,800. But in Mesquite it is much lower than that at around $52,300, he said.

People making the 60-120 percent of that median income could afford a mortgage of between $103,000 and $257,000, the taskforce found.

But the median sales price of a single family home in Mesquite is currently at $307,730, the report states.

So people in these income brackets are going to be pretty much shut out of the single family detached housing market, Secrist said. But they would, presumably be able to buy a condo or townhome, if they could find one. But the market is tight and there are few vacancies right now.

A labor and wages survey of major employers in Mesquite, conducted by the task force, found that about 1,850 hourly wage employees in Mesquite earn only $12.50 per hour.That is only 50 percent of the Mesquite median income, Secrist said.

Furthermore, a national study showed that the fair market rent for a two-bedroom apartment in Nevada is around $1,065 per month.

So if you can pay that plus utilities, without it being over 30 percent of your income, to afford a two bedroom apartment youd have to earn $20.50 per hour, Secrist said. So you can see that a lot of people that are making that $12.50 per hour, are going to have a hard time finding housing.

The task force also inquired of builders in the area on what were the greatest barriers for affordable housing projects in the community. Answers they received included high land costs, opportunity costs compared to better markets in St. George and Las Vegas, high development fees, the unpredictability of approvals and the increasing costs of building materials and labor in the region.

Given all of these findings, the taskforce report made some recommendations for the City going forward.The recommendations advised the City to focus its efforts on the target multi-family and manufactured home market since hourly workers are priced out of the single family detached home market.

In addition, incentives from the City should focus on homes priced at below $257,000, according to the recommendations. This includes condominiums, townhomes and manufactured homes which would be within reach of workforce homebuyers, Secrist said.

These City incentives should also be focused on parcels already improved, graded and which had already received entitlements and zoning, the taskforce recommended.

A series of changes to guidelines, city codes and master plan elements were recommended to make the construction of workforce housing easier for developers.

Finally, the taskforce determined that, if after all these items, the City was still unsuccessful in drawing developers to build workforce housing, that a local Housing Authority be created to use public funds for workforce housing project.

That is our report, Secrist said. There is progress being made. We will continue to meet with developers to try and entice them to come out here and try to overcome the issues that are keeping them from doing that.

With very little discussion, the council accepted the report with a unanimous vote.

Continue reading here:
Workforce Housing Taskforce Reports To City Council - mvprogress

A few tests have received emergency FDA authorization, which is different than full FDA approval.

While a COVID-19 vaccine is potentially right around the corner, researchers are trying to make testing for the virus easier.

One way is to make those tests available at home.

Currently, there are nine companies allowed to sell at home testing kits by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

They cost between $109 and $155 and use a nasal swab or saliva collection method.

You have to fill out a short questionnaire before getting the test delivered to your home, and you have to send the test back to a lab for results.

While the labs claim high accuracy, all of the tests were given emergency FDA authorization, which is different than full FDA approval.

That means the tests did not go through the same rigorous review. Health experts say there are two patient populations the at-home tests may work for: patients in rural areas without access to testing sites or high-risk patients who want to be tested without leaving their homes.

Just because you test negative, doesn't mean you don't have the coronavirus.

Doctors warn people should not be using these tests as way to justify having a large gathering, not wearing masks or not social distancing.

The FDA also a rapid results at-home test manufactured by Lucira Health, which requires a prescription.

Results will be shown in 30 minutes, but the test won't be available until the spring.

Connect with Local 5 onFacebook,TwitterorInstagram!

More:
What are the options for at-home coronavirus testing? - Local 5 - weareiowa.com

The surf is about to be up in the Coachella Valley.

The Thermal Beach Club is a private residential/vacation community being developed on the privately held Kohl Ranch land, just north of the Salton Sea. The developers hope its beaches and waves are open by 2023 to memberspeople who can either pay $1 million or more for one of the 326 homes, or $175,000 annually for a non-resident club membership.

Not surprisingly, some current residents of the Thermal and Oasis communities are dismayed by that prospectand the marketing push being employed by their new neighbor has exacerbated their misgivings. That marketing promises an opulent lifestyle characterized as: Adventure living. Wrapped in luxury. Artist renderings and a promotional video reveal a 20-acre wave pool that will feature a continuous stream of waves in excess of six feet each.

Our communities have remained undefended for generations, said a representative of the grassroots east valley activist organization No Se Vende who requested anonymity. It wasnt just during my parents or my grandparents time. This is a longstanding issue of not prioritizing our needs, and not engaging with the (challenges) we go through on day-to-day basis. Obviously, this Thermal Beach Club project viewed our community as an afterthought. And, obviously, with such a high membership fee, the people of Thermal, especially (many) who are undocumented and part of the farmworker community, will never be able to access this.

But proponents of the projectincluding six of the seven members of the Thermal-Oasis Community Council, as well as all five members of the Riverside County Board of Supervisorsview the buildout, in a disadvantaged region of Coachella Valley, as an opportunity that could jumpstart improvement in the area.

Honestly, its a gut-wrenching scenario that takes place time and time again when were talking about land use, said Riverside County District 4 Supervisor V. Manuel Perez during a recent phone interview. Mind you, when we talk about the disadvantaged communities of the east end (of Coachella Valley), this particular issue had folks in support as well as against. On the against side were the younger activists, while the support came more from individuals who are a bit older and want to see development. And its interesting, because if you look at the Thermal-Oasis Community Council, there was a vote in support of the project, and were talking about individuals who grew up on the east end and, quite frankly, individuals who also own polanco (mobile home) parks, who see the importance of bringing in infrastructure. The challenge is how to do that with limited resources.

So, I do look at this through the lens of social justice, like those individuals who are against this project, but I see how we get there from a different standpoint. I understand that we need clean drinking water. I understand that we need housing opportunities, and we need infrastructure as well as more community centers and parks. Weve had a few listening sessions to have those discussions, and obviously, were going to have more of them. COVID-19 put a stop to that process. But, at the same time, when I think about all of this, the county is in a very limited position to make those type of (infrastructure) investments, especially now because of COVID. So, unfortunately, we have to rely on development from the private sector to ensure that we are able to provide the amenities, and frankly, the basic necessities, that our people deserve. My colleagues on the Riverside County Board of Supervisors were amazed by what the developer was willing to do (for surrounding communities), aside from the usual costs of paying for permits and development impact fees. Theyre demonstrating that the Kohl family members want to be good neighbors.

Those benefits include a commitment to install water and sewer pipelines and hookups to connect with existing Coachella Valley Water District infrastructure in the area; a community benefit fund into which the Kohl family, through the developers, will pay $2,300 per unit, for a maximum of $750,000; a written good faith commitment to engage in a dialogue with the Board of Supervisors to identify land that can be utilized for affordable housing, with access to the new water and sewer infrastructure; a promise to hire local workers for 200 to 400 permanent jobs created by the project; a promise to procure materials and equipment locally; a promise to work with Desert Mirage High School to enable student access to the TBC facilities to learn how to surf; and county property-tax revenue that could eventually total $8.7 million annually.

Other opponents to the TBC development questioned whether there is enough water available to support the development. But according to Katie Evans, communications and conservation director at the Coachella Valley Water District, that is not an issue.

The Coachella Valley Water District is not a land-use agency, and doesnt have the authority to approve or deny any type of development, Evans said. Instead, our role is to evaluate the water-supply assessment and then provide the information to the land agency about our findings. Whenever a development comes in, they are required to evaluate the amount of water they are going to be using through formulas, and (by studying) past demand, building practices and plumbing codes, and provide that information to CVWD. We analyzed (the information from Thermal Beach Club), and we do have the water supply to meet that demand.

Thermal-Oasis Community Council member Matthew Melkesian voted in favor of the project. He said he has a background in low-income housing developmenthe is currently installing 40 manufactured homes in the eastern valley for the Riverside County Housing Authorityand Melkesian was impressed by the flexibility and generosity of the Kohl Ranch representatives.

Any time you are able to have a wealthy developer foot the bill on behalf of the community, we are going to welcome that with open arms, Melkesian said. The amount of offsite improvements that they have committed to doing is really such an asset and incredible for the community. Its one of those things that, unfortunately, people and residents take for granted, or they do not know the difficulty involved in the process of developing anything. Thats why I was one of the more-vocal advocates, because I have been a part of infrastructure and low-income housing projects.

Did Melkesian believe that the young advocates who spoke out against the development were heard by the community council?

We appreciate the communitys involvement, Melkesian said. Id like to see more members of the community continue their political advocacy and take it a step further: Dont just get involved in one development or one case that became emblematic of many of our societys problems. We need to have our community speaking out about what the community needs consistently. It cant just stop at this project. Thats the only way that lawmakers are going to make changes. We need people to really speak up and say that we need low-income housing.

Perez said a broader perspective is required to evaluate the community-changing potential of a development such as the Thermal Beach Club.

We need mixed land use, Perez said. We need mixed income levels. We need mixed housing. We need diversity. Even the economists who are part of the UC Riverside economic forecasts have mentioned that: Moving forward, we can deal with societys ills by being inclusionary of all these concepts. Quite honestly, I can say, having grown up on the east end of our valley, theres a reason why its impoverished. Theres a reason why all of the development has been on the west end. Ive got to think about the fact that there were decisions made back in the day in which the east end was not included.

Perez said he would ensure that the highly touted public benefitssome of which are described in rather vague terms in the current agreementare fully realized.

We made sure we got an agreement that within six months, well start working on the specific plan, and that is going to provide us the opportunity to think about the acreage for affordable housing. Ultimately, what that means is re-writing the specific plan that was written 20 years ago. The developers agreed to that. Six months from now, if that doesnt happen, that project, potentially, will not move forward. The same thing with the $750,000 community benefit fund. There will be checks and balances at the Board of Supervisors.

Believe me, this was not easy. Ive pondered it for over a year, and obviously, we want to make sure that we improve the conditions back home. I want to make sure I follow through on that. I think the east end deserves everything that the west end has. Why not?

Read the original:
Wave of the Future? Proponents of the Thermal Beach Club Say the Luxury Project Will Benefit the Entire Eastern Coachella Valleybut Not All Residents...

On Sept. 8, Phoenix resident Gladis Garcia was helping out with her husbands landscaping business when she got word that a small brush fire near Ashland was quickly growing into what would be known as the Almeda fire.

We got a call from my daughter that there was a fire in Talent, and that it was getting close because the wind was picking up, she said. We never really thought it would reach our home. We thought they would get it under control.

Garcia and her husband headed home, but they didnt get far as the fire swept north, through Talent and reaching the outskirts of Phoenix. Roads were jammed with people escaping the fire.

My husband and I were stuck in traffic, and there was no way to get back home, she said.

So they called their three children, ages 9, 14 and 19, telling them to grab a few important documents and some clothes and to get out. As the family drove to safety, they could see neighbors' homes catching fire behind them.

We could see the fire, and we knew our kids were going through a lot, Garcia said. Its a very stressful situation for a parent to not be able to be there for them and tell them that everything is going to be OK.

When the Garcias returned the next day, their manufactured home was completely destroyed, along with their daughters car.

Now the Garcia family is starting over with help from the Rogue Valley Relief Fund, a beneficiary of The Oregonian/OregonLives 2020 Season of Sharing holiday fundraising campaign.

>>To donate: Season of Sharing GoFundMe page

The fund, which was founded in the wake of Septembers wildfires, is a collaboration between five Southern Oregon grass-roots non-profits that normally focus on issues of climate change, affordable housing and racial equality. The fund is designed to get food and assistance to people affected by the Almeda fire. Rogue Action Center, Rogue Climate, SOHealth-E, SOEquity and Siskiyou Rising Tide have set up five distribution sites throughout the area, where people can pick up supplies such as baby food, diapers, blankets and tents.

The distribution centers have also served hundreds of breakfasts, lunch and dinners at the distribution sites every day. The centers are run by volunteers drawn from each non-profits regular pool of volunteers.

Gladis Garcia (second from right) and her children (from left), Caleb, 9, Ana Alvarez, 19, and Isaac, 14, carry items recovered from the remains of their home as they walk through their neighborhood in Phoenix, Ore., on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2020. Gladis is holding the family molcajete, a Mexican kitchen utensil used to grind food. Ana is holding the license plate from her car, which was destroyed in the fire. Isaac is holding the remains of his electronic gaming console.Robin Loznak/For The Oregonian/OregonLive

People have been very comfortable and very appreciative to have some of these supplies so they can save their funds for things like their first months rent, hotel rooms, said Alessandra de la Torre, energy justice organizer for Rogue Climate. People are really appreciating how people are coming together to support each other in this time of crisis.

The fund, which is being implemented with help from Oregons MRG Foundation, has been able to give out $100 Visa cards, which people can use for anything they need, like clothes and groceries.

Se-ah-dom Edmo, executive director of the MRG Foundation, said that as of mid-October, more than $500,000 in aid had been distributed to the relief fund. Almost all of that aid has come from individual donations.

De la Torre said that some of those donations came from Rogue Valley musicians and artists who have been hosting their own fundraisers, like concerts and gallery shows.

While working on the relief fund is inspiring, De la Torre said, it also has been challenging because the offices for both Rogue Climate and Rogue Action Center were destroyed in the wildfire.

It will not stop our commitment to the community, because we are so much more than an office, she said. We will keep working to give the community united and sustainable change.

For now, the Garcia family is staying rent-free in a small Ashland apartment owned by the Oregon Shakespeare Festival. But theyll have to move out in January, when the festival needs the apartment to house visiting artists.

After that, where is a family of five with a dog going to go? Garcia said. Its hard to find a place because apartments are asking for more money than we have right now. Weve been getting a lot of help from smaller nonprofits, but theres only so much funding and support that they can give.

Garcia wants people to understand that her familys experience is anything but unique.

I really hope that the people who donate understand that our story is just one story, she said. We lost more than a house. We lost a community that night, and there were people who lost a lot more than us. I want people to put themselves in our shoes, and to one day have a home, and the next day to have lost everything literally in the blink of an eye.

What your donation can do

$25: Buy groceries for people displaced by fire.

$50: Buy a tank of gas for a family displaced by fire.

$100: Buy a Visa gift card for personal articles, as well as a night at a hotel.

-- Grant Butler

gbutler@oregonian.com

503-221-8566; @grantbutler

Read the original post:
Rogue Valley Relief Fund helps hundreds start over after Almeda fire in southern Oregon: Season of Sharing 20 - oregonlive.com

PARADISE Two years out from tragedy, the reality of obstacles to rebuilding after wildfire is all too clear driving through the town of Paradise.

Where surviving homes still stand, lot after empty lot surrounds them. Where new homes rise again, with hammers and saws heard through the trees, just down the street stands a trailer with few belongings in sight. Inequality that dogged Paradise before the fire is stark bare to the eye as a second winter after the fire closes in.

A countywide report which finally arrived the first week of September pulled no punches scrutinizing the gap in housing for all in Butte County, and the work needed if the town is serious about addressing the overwhelming need for cheaper housing.

There is certainly significant activity for bringing back traditional single family homes. Disaster Recovery Director Katie Simmons said for single family homes, 1,306 permits have been received, and 859 are to be built traditionally, with over 400 manufactured homes. There are 1,168 applications issued with 426 homes either rebuilt or on the way with certificates of occupancy issued.

The towns staff have also been quick to point out multiple outside offers of interest in buying up lots to rebuild and see. Community Development Director Susan Hartman said Thursday its common for companies to buy parcels of between 50 to 100 lots with the plan to build a new home and sell it. And the town does not keep track of how many contracts are for owner occupancy (often a former resident rebuild) or for this future development and sale by an outside company.

Residents who feel pushed out have said they know why the interest is so high. Land is cheap, and money can be made from those who have it and can afford the insurance.

But for those who lost everything and cant get it back, or still cannot make enough to have a hope to stay, the lack of less expensive housing is leading to desperation. Particularly as the economy reels from the pandemics losses, many cannot see room for growth towards a home of their own on the ridge. Those in trailers still tend to be low-income, previous renters or they may be the elderly with health issues, according to Chico State Passages Connections Program Director Shannon Simmons.

We need to be prioritizing low income housing in Chico specifically, she said, to address the increased vulnerability of people with low and fixed income like seniors.

For people on fixed income who have Social Security or disability or minimal retirement, it is literally impossible to even rent in this area, Simmons said. She added for the elderly poor, it can be a choice between living in a permanent home or paying for medication and food. These are some of the towns population still living in trailers, without the funds to recreate the home they had.

The real gap is in affordable multifamily housing or any new multifamily housing at all. There were 265 applications received as of Tuesday, with 216 multifamily unit permits issued and 70 units rebuilt with occupancy. These include the Community Housing Improvement Programs Paradise Community Village, and those rebuilds proposed by a number of other developers totaling 200 units in multifamily projects.

But Hartman said she hasnt had any meetings in the last six months with developers for new multifamily projects.

There are some mobile home parks under reconstruction, most of which were at capacity before the fire, Hartman said. At least half a dozen are working on septic and other underground utility repairs. This could bring some more options to those living in trailers needing a place to stay, but no long term solutions for those needing permanent housing.

The town points to coming grant funding as possible aid for those who cant afford to rebuild or may be forced to move. Simmons said in 2021, the town is receiving grant funds to help improve the building of affordable units. A total of $55 million is to be allocated to the town for use getting multifamily unit projects moving, prioritizing smaller density projects of up to four units.

A six-year pool for owner occupied reconstruction totaling $205 million opens in 2021 for those impacted by federally declared disaster. Permits given to those who are in temporary living situations or most heavily, for those rebuilding a single home with low to middle income below 80% of area median income, who could receive up to $200,000.

Its really for funding unmet needs, looking at those who might have a gap in reconstruction and permanent housing, Simmons said. They identified 60% (of survivors) were uninsured.

We know that most folks living in temporary housing are very interested in rebuilding but many are experiencing financial or time barriers.

The town does currently administer owner occupied reconstruction grant funds, at $25 million total for those who owned property prior to the Camp Fire. There are 88 applicants already with just under 100 interested who havent applied. The pool can assist up to 150 households.

And there are other grants available, like the Rebuild Paradise Foundation using septic grants available to offset permit fees for those who need to pay for their septic restoration to rebuild.

But, Until we start seeing PG&E payouts, we just dont really know how much those are going to amount to, Simmons said, which makes it hard for residents to decide whether funds from those claims will be enough to rebuild.

Hartman said the main next move for community development will not take place until the end of 2021, when the hope is to update the General Plan. using the sewer and traffic circulation studies going on throughout the first half of the year. This update will be vital to even know where to place new housing developments, she said.

Whats the reason why higher density, more affordable housing models cannot move forward more quickly?

Public Works Director Mark Mattox said the towns sewer infrastructure must come first. Development of multifamily housing in particular will not start in earnest until decisions are made on the sewer.

Mattox estimates that once the town commits to a long term option for managing its water, if environmental review of the proposed sewer can begin in December it will take 18 months. So the soonest pipes could be in the ground, allowing for higher density projects like multifamily housing, would be three to five years.

We may not hear from these developers for another year until we have a completed environmental impact report and funding for construction, which would be over $100 million, Mattox added.

Due to the need for this infrastructure to come first, There will continue to be uncertainty in the towns ability to create robust multifamily housing solutions, he added. These are not new issues to the town since before the fire, the lack of a sewer also impeded the ability to create higher density, cheaper housing options.

While the grants are there for multifamily housing, the infrastructure to support it is necessary, Mattox said. The need for a sewer is our reality.

A major town meeting will take place Tuesday to consider the fork in the road decision whether to look at creating a local waste water plant or using a regional extension to the Chico water plant, Mattox said. The town will then have another meeting Dec. 8 to discuss how to move forward on the sewer once everyone has more time to look at all information presented.

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Housing disparity on the ridge persists, future outlook is positive - Chico Enterprise-Record

Short of a few more final battleground state vote counts to drop and a victory speech, it looks like we can start calling Joe Biden the president-elect. The good news is Biden has a great plan for federal action on housing. Enacting Biden-Harris housing policy priorities would improve security for millions of Americans and help reverse the crippling shortage of homes afflicting communities throughout the US.

The bad news is a Republican-controlled Senate will block most, if not all of it.

The Senatean institution inherently designed to allow minority rulehas a long history of obstruction. Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell blockaded almost all of President Barack Obamas agenda when given the chance. The Senate under his leadership rendered hundreds of House proposals DOA, including numerous housing measures. Not to mention stalling pandemic stimulus that would keep Americans securely in their homes as the economic and health crisis deepens.

With the Senate in Republican hands, unless McConnell unexpectedly stops being McConnell and allows bipartisan compromise, Bidens most ambitious housing proposals look destined for demise.

Georgias two Senate runoff elections in January offer an opportunity for Democrats to take back the Senate, but chances are slim. In all likelihood, Senate-driven gridlock will stymie federal progressnot only on housing policy, but also on other paramount issues such as climate changeat least until Democrats get their next shot at the Senate in 2022. Elections matter.

As for near-term action on housing, emergency rental assistance is still a possibility. Contradicting his pre-election position, McConnell now says hell prioritize a COVID stimulus package that includes aid to states when Congress reconvenes next week. No guarantees rental assistance will end up in the bill, but its been a consistent priority for Democrats.

Also, two modest bills that would require cities to account for their needless restrictions on homebuildingthe YIMBY Act and the Build More Housing Near Transit Actstill have a shot at passing (see my take on those proposals).

For at least a decade now, Americans have been grappling with a worsening housing crisis. In some places, stagnant incomes are to blame. In other places awash in high-paying jobs but hamstrung with restrictions on new housing, competition prices out even middle class families.

The federal government has unmatched potential to take on these two core problems. The solution rests on two policy pillars: (1) expand financial support for those who cant afford housing, and (2) impel cities to loosen their rules and allow more homes. Joe Bidens housing plan incorporates both, synthesizing many proposals put forth by his more left-leaning presidential primary challengers. Its a really good plan!

In stark contrast, Trump never had any kind of coherent housing strategy, and spent the final months of his campaign tweeting that low-income housing would destroy suburbiaa dog whistle aimed at undermining both policy pillars.

Here are the five essential elements of Bidens housing plan:

The $20 billion program currently provides vouchers for two million low-income households to help them pay rent, but funding only covers about a fourth of those that qualify. Biden calls for fully funding Section 8 so that everyone eligible gets the assistance they need to pay their rent for a safe home.

(Trump proposed cutting Section 8 funding by 20 percent, raising the tenants rent payment portion from 30 to 35 percent, and adding work requirements for recipients.)

Bidens plan includes renter tax credit similar to the one proposed in Vice President-elect Kamala Harris 2018 Rent Relief Act. With a price tag of $5 billion, its designed to reduce rent and utilities to 30 percent of income for low-income individuals and families who may make too much money to qualify for a Section 8 voucher but still struggle to pay their rent.

The Biden plan would:

(Trumps 2021 budget request proposed to slash HUDs budget by 15 percent, cut public housing operation funds by 21 percent, and eliminate both the Housing Trust Fund and CDBGs.)

Bidens plan commits to:

Modeling on Senator Cory Bookers HOME Act of 2019, the Biden plan would make CDBGs and Transportation Block Grants contingent on cities adopting strategies to get rid of exclusionary zoning laws that stymie construction of new homes. It would also add such reforms as a condition for other funding programs where possible, and offer local planning grants to support the necessary policy changes.

The plan explicitly calls out how overly restrictive zoning laws keep people of color and low-income families out of certain communities, limit affordable housing options, and contribute to urban sprawl and climate pollution.

(In 2019, Trump signed an executive order establishing a council to eliminate federal, state and local barriers that are holding back affordable housing development. But his subsequent tweets and speeches blatantly contradict that intent.)

The spending required for the first three plan actions described above all but rules out passage by a Republican-controlled Senate. And Republican ideology would likely preclude votes for the fourth.

As demonstrated by bipartisan support for the YIMBY Act, some Republicans are working to pass action on housing similar to the fifth element of Bidens plan noted above. However, members on both sides of the aisle are likely to lose their stomach for bills that push too far on federal control over local governments. All told, the most impactful elements of Bidens housing plan are pretty much dead in the water without Democrats in control of the Senate (and House).

If and when Democrats do take back the Senate, another big hurdle remains. The filibuster ensures that most, if not all, of Bidens major housing proposals would need 60 voteshighly improbable under the likely scenario of a slim Democrat majority. To escape that dysfunction, a Democratic majority could end minority rule and eliminate the filibuster once and for all.

New multi-family homes. Photo: Lawcain, Dreamstime.com

With the filibuster still in place, there is a workaround that could enable passage of parts of Bidens plan: budget reconciliation. Increased funding for existing programs can be passed as part of a budget reconciliation bill thats immune to filibuster and therefore only requires a simple majority vote. One of Bidens key proposalsthe plan to quadruple Section 8 fundingis fair game through reconciliation, and likewise boosting the Housing Trust Fund.

To finish my thought experiment, lets assume that after the 2022 election Democrats control the Senate and abolish the filibuster. That would open the door to taking Bidens good ideas for federal action on housing reform even further, on both policy pillars(1) funds for subsidy and (2) leverage for local zoning reform.

On the first pillar, Bidens intention to expand Section 8 vouchers is a good start but falls short because it doesnt make Section 8 a true, permanent entitlement. That means Congress must appropriate new funding every budget cycle, repeatedly putting the program at political risk.

More importantly, it also means that everyone who needs aid isnt necessarily coveredthe massive unemployment caused by the pandemic is a good example of how that could happen. As my colleague Michael Andersen has written, a critical fix for Section 8 is to make benefits an entitlement, like food stamps, automatically available to anyone whose income drops below a set level.

Another problem with Section 8 is most landlords dont accept the vouchers. That makes approved rentals hard to find, plus newly qualifying tenants have to move if their current landlord refuses Section 8. The obvious (but also politically fraught) fix is a federal mandate for universal acceptance of vouchers. Alternatively, a better long-term solution is a complete revamp to a program that gives struggling renters the flexibility and freedom of straight up cash instead of vouchers.

For the second pillar, Bidens embrace of the HOME Act is a solid first step. But its only a small one, because the HOME Act has no prescriptive teeth: cities dont have to loosen restrictions on housing to remain eligible for federal funds, they only have to demonstrate their intentions to do so someday.

To have a meaningful impact, federal laws must have the kind of teeth that spurs widespread local law changes to allow more homes. In a previous article I described the key elements, including funding types, carrots and sticks, and regulatory versus outcome-based compliance.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezs A Place to Prosper Act shows one way a prescriptive policy could work. It would deny federal road funding for projects located in a city that mandates off-street parking, requires lot sizes larger than one half acre, or bans multi-unit homes or manufactured homes.

In September, the Urban Institute published a report on how the federal government can help eliminate exclusionary zoning. The authors make an important point to focus on conditioning funds that go to states, because most of the federal dollars received by local jurisdictions flow through states first.

Voters took the first necessary step for federal action on housing policy by ousting Trump. Unfortunately, as long as the Senate remains under Republican control, progress on the bold ideas in Joe Bidens housing plan are unlikely to ever see the light of day.

Any ambitious federal action is now a longer term game.

One option would be for Republicans and Democrats to find some way to compromise across party lines. Yes, the possibility seems remote today. But thats exactly what happened last year with Oregons state-wide legalization of duplexes, triplexes and fourplexes and Californias legalization of up to two cottages on any lot. Republicans, especially in rural areas, crossed party lines to support Democratic pro-housing bills because they felt someone should be allowed to add a home to their property if they want to.

The other option for action on housing is purely partisan. First, Democrats must take back the Senate under a pro-housing president like Biden. Then they must abolish the filibuster.

Congress can then pass the kind of bold legislation the country needs on two fronts: cash assistance for people who need help to pay the rent, and federal guidance to ensure that citiesallow enough homes of all shapes and sizes for us all, no matter our race, income, or where we live.

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Biden-Harris Win Opens Path to Federal Action on Housing - Sightline Institute

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Bryan Miller with ARC Construction frames up what will be a base for a steel column as construction of a new 10,000-square-foot aircraft hanger is underway at the Henderson City-County Airport Thursday, November 5, 2020.(Photo: MIKE LAWRENCE / THE GLEANER)

The start of construction on a 10,000-square-foot hangar at the Henderson City-County Airport was the biggest new building project here in October.

The county codes office issued a permit valued at $667,000 for a 100-by-100-foot hangar that will replace a nearly 60-year-old hangar of the same size.

Airport manager Allen Bennett said a structural engineer had conducted a detailed analysis of the old hangar and determined that it was at or near the end of its useful life.

That left everybody pretty uncomfortable, including the airports insurance company and tenants who rented hangar space, Bennett said.

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The airport secured a $350,000 state grant that is paying for about half of the hangar project. Low bidder ARC Construction Co. of Evansville is the general contractor for the project. Completion is expected in about two months, weather permitting.

The hangar, which will be capable of storing roughly 15 to 20 aircraft, depending on their size, will be one of four large hangars owned by the airport in addition to several privately owned corporate hangars, Bennett said.

The old hangar was disassembled in the spring and will be reassembled at the county Road Department by the recycling center for storing recyclables so that the shed currently being used for that purpose can once again be used for parking Road Department heavy equipment, County Engineer Bill Hubiak said. It will be the latest in a series of projects overseen by Hubiak in which structures judged obsolete for other use have been repurposed for new uses by the county.

In other activity, the county codes office issued permits in October for three new single-family residences outside the city limits with an average construction value of $282,317 (not counting real estate and certain other expenses). The city issued no permits for single-family homes last month.

However, the city codes office issued a $260,000 permit to III C of Kentucky LLC for a multi-family residence at 516 S. Main St. the second of three that are planned there as part of the redevelopment of a former commercial laundry property.

So far this year, the city has issued permits for 14 new single-family homes (with an average construction value of $128,293) while the county has issued permits for 24 new homes (averaging $278,759).

That brings the total number of housing starts so far this year to 38, up from 29 during the same period last year.

The construction value of building permits issued last month by the city totaled $666,423 while county permits totaled $1.6 million for a monthly total of $2.3 million, compared with $3.2 million in October 2019.

The overall value of construction activity authorized by city and county building permits has totaled $42.0 million so far this year, up from $38.8 million during the same period last year.

Two projects account for more than half of all construction value here so far this year: the $18 million permit for construction of the new Jefferson Elementary School behind South Middle School and a $5.3 million permit for the first phase of construction of the Homeplace of Henderson assisted living complex along Green River Road.

Here are the building permits issued here last month:

Demolition, single-family residence: Habitat for Humanity, 715 N. Adams St., $4,000.

Multi-family new construction: III C of Kentucky LLC, 516 S. Main St., $260,000.

Single-family accessory structure: Demetris Marigny, 1412 Washington St., $1,373; Eric Fulkerson, 226 N. Kerry Lane, $45,000; Michael P. Shaw, 10 Center Circle, $6,000; Johnna and Nathan A. Herron, 933 Frontier Dr., $5,000; Barry Sheffer, 716 Mill St., $1,400; and Tony R. II and Tredia S. Cagle, 204 Hallway, $23,500.

Single-family additions: Beth McCormack, 208 Hancock St., $150,000; Judith Matheney, 969 Oakcrest Dr., $13,000; and Baxter E. and Sharon S. Stanton, 1128 N. Main St., $100,000.

Signs: Everybody Fitness, 1321 Second St., $2,500; Americas Car Mart, 2214 U.S. 41-North, $5,000; Tikay Caribbean, 802 Second St., $650; Universal Hospitality LLC, 2820 U.S. 41-North, $15,000; and Ohio Valley National Bank, 1720 Second St., $34,000.

City total: $666,423.

New residences: Michael Rhea, 9395 U.S. 60-East, $262,400; Casey and Traci Thomas, 3503 A.C. Walker Road, $358,550; and Tim and Angie Jackson, 12753 U.S. 41-Alternate, $226,000.

Room additions: Donna Nation, 6304 Cairo-Dixie Road, $42,000; Tim Nunn Sr., 1845 Busby Station Road, $40,000; and Douglas Sword, 10569 U.S. 416, $6,700.

Commercial: Henderson City-County Airport, 2154 Kentucky 136-West, $667,000.

Manufactured homes: Jessica Watson, 5515 Kentucky 416, $18,000; and David Wicker, 3378 Corydon D Fellows Road, $152,000.

Garages/utility buildings: Erin McKee, 9288 Martin-Martin Road, $4,000; Brad Greenwell, 21906 Kentucky 811, $15,000; Greg Fridy, 14171 U.S. 41-South, $15,000; Matt Willhite, 15059 Cheatham-Toy Road, $49,200; and Gary Robinson, 6285 Doubletree Dr., $28,000.

County total: $1,621,450

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New hangar at airport tops new construction in Henderson County - The Gleaner

FREEHOLD, NJ, Nov. 04, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- UMH Properties, Inc. (NYSE:UMH) reported Total Income for the quarter ended September 30, 2020 of $43.1 million as compared to $37.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2019, representing an increase of 16%. Net Loss Attributable to Common Shareholders amounted to $12.8 million or $0.31 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2020 as compared to Net Income of $5.6 million or $0.14 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2019. This decrease was due to the change in fair value of our marketable securities. During the quarter, the securities portfolio experienced an unrealized loss of $6.7 million as compared to an unrealized gain of $9.2 million in the prior year period. In addition, the Company called for redemption of all 3.8 million issued and outstanding shares of its 8.0% Series B Preferred Stock and recognized a preferred share redemption charge of $2.9 million related to the original issuance costs.

Funds from Operations Attributable to Common Shareholders (FFO), was $4.5 million or $0.11 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2020 as compared to $5.8 million or $0.14 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2019. This decrease in FFO is due to the redemption charge of $2.9 million on the Series B Preferred Stock. Normalized Funds from Operations Attributable to Common Shareholders (Normalized FFO), was $7.4 million or $0.18 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2020, as compared to $6.0 million or $0.15 per diluted share for the quarter ended September 30, 2019.

A summary of significant financial information for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 is as follows (in thousands except per share amounts):

$

(0.31

)

$

0.14

$

(1.10

)

$

0.15

A summary of significant balance sheet information as of September 30, 2020 and December 31, 2019 is as follows (in thousands):

Samuel A. Landy, President and CEO, commented on the results of the third quarter of 2020.

We are pleased to announce another solid quarter of operating results. During the quarter, we:

Mr. Landy further stated, UMH continues to achieve excellent results despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Normalized FFO for the quarter increased to $0.18 per share representing an increase of 20% over the prior year period.

This FFO growth was driven by solid fundamental performance in our core business. Same property occupancy increased 320 basis points to 86.9%. Year over year, we added almost 700 rental homes to our same property portfolio, increasing rental home occupancy to 95.4%. Our improved occupancy paired with reduced expenses resulted in same property NOI growth of 13%. This is the fourth quarter in a row that we have reported double digit same property NOI growth.

Our sales results also contributed to our FFO growth. Sales for the quarter were up 54% generating a net profit of $640,000 for the quarter. We continue to experience pent up sales demand.

UMH also had a busy quarter on the acquisition front. During the quarter, we closed on the acquisition of two communities containing 310 homesites, with a weighted average occupancy rate of 64%, for approximately $7.8 million. These communities are located in markets where we have experienced excellent demand for both sales and rental units. We anticipate strong returns at these value-add communities as we are able to execute on our long-term business plan.

Most importantly, we pioneered two loan products which will allow us to reduce our cost of capital going forward. We closed on the financing of some of our free and clear communities generating proceeds of $106 million at an interest rate of 2.62%. These communities did not previously qualify for GSE financing because of their rental home percentages. The access to low cost debt on properties with significant percentages of rental homes solidifies our business plan. Subsequent to quarter end, we used a portion of this capital to redeem our $95 million of Series B 8% Preferred stock. This redemption will generate over $5 million, or approximately $0.12 per share, of additional FFO annually.

We also entered into a line of credit utilizing our rental homes and the income derived from them as collateral. The rate on this line is WSJ prime + 25 basis points. Access to low cost debt on rental homes previously did not exist.

UMH continues to make strides in all aspects of our business plan. We are pleased that we covered our $0.18 dividend purely on our current operations. The successes that we have had on the financing front will further improve our FFO metrics in 2021.

UMH Properties, Inc. will host its Third Quarter 2020 Financial Results Webcast and Conference Callon Thursday, November 5, 2020 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time.Senior management will discuss the results, current market conditions and future outlook on the call.

The Companys 2020 third quarter financial results being released herein will be available on the Companys website at http://www.umh.reit in the Financial Information and Filings section.

To participate in thewebcast,select the microphone icon found on the homepagewww.umh.reitto access the call.Interested parties can also participate via conference callby calling toll free 877-513-1898 (domestically) or 412-902-4147 (internationally).

The replay of the conference call will be available at 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, November 5, 2020. It will be available until February 1, 2021 and can be accessed by dialing toll free 877-344-7529 (domestically) and 412-317-0088 (internationally) and entering the passcode 10147928. A transcript of the call and the webcast replay will be available at the Company's website,www.umh.reit.

UMH Properties, Inc., which was organized in 1968, is a public equity REIT that owns and operates 124 manufactured home communities containing approximately 23,400 developed homesites. These communities are located in New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Indiana, Michigan and Maryland. In addition, the Company owns a portfolio of REIT securities.

Certain statements included in this press release which are not historical facts may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Any such forward-looking statements are based on the Companys current expectations and involve various risks and uncertainties. Although the Company believes the expectations reflected in any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, the Company can provide no assurance those expectations will be achieved. The risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from expectations are contained in the Companys annual report on Form 10-K and described from time to time in the Companys other filings with the SEC. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

Note:

(1) Non-GAAP Information: We assess and measure our overall operating results based upon an industry performance measure referred to as Funds from Operations Attributable to Common Shareholders (FFO), which management believes is a useful indicator of our operating performance. FFO is used by industry analysts and investors as a supplemental operating performance measure of a REIT. FFO, as defined by The National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts (NAREIT), represents net income (loss) attributable to common shareholders, as defined by accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (U.S. GAAP), excluding extraordinary items, as defined under U.S. GAAP, gains or losses from sales of previously depreciated real estate assets, impairment charges related to depreciable real estate assets, and the change in the fair value of marketable securities plus certain non-cash items such as real estate asset depreciation and amortization. Included in the NAREIT FFO White Paper - 2018 Restatement, is an option pertaining to assets incidental to our main business in the calculation of NAREIT FFO to make an election to include or exclude gains and losses on the sale of these assets, such as marketable equity securities and include or exclude mark-to-market changes in the value recognized on these marketable equity securities.In conjunction with the adoption of the FFO White Paper - 2018 Restatement, for all periods presented, we have elected to exclude the change in the fair value of marketable securities from our FFO calculation.Prior to the adoption of the FFO White Paper 2018 Restatement, we utilized Core Funds from Operations (Core FFO), which we defined as FFO, excluding the change in the fair value of marketable securities. NAREIT created FFO as a non-U.S. GAAP supplemental measure of REIT operating performance. We define Normalized Funds from Operations Attributable to Common Shareholders (Normalized FFO), as FFO, excluding gains and losses realized on marketable securities investments and certain one-time charges. FFO and Normalized FFO should be considered as supplemental measures of operating performance used by REITs. FFO and Normalized FFO exclude historical cost depreciation as an expense and may facilitate the comparison of REITs which have a different cost basis. However, other REITs may use different methodologies to calculate FFO and Normalized FFO and, accordingly, our FFO and Normalized FFO may not be comparable to all other REITs. The items excluded from FFO and Normalized FFO are significant components in understanding the Companys financial performance.

FFO and Normalized FFO (i) do not represent Cash Flow from Operations as defined by U.S. GAAP; (ii) should not be considered as alternatives to net income (loss) as a measure of operating performance or to cash flows from operating, investing and financing activities; and (iii) are not alternatives to cash flow as a measure of liquidity.

The reconciliation of the Companys U.S. GAAP net loss to the Companys FFO and Normalized FFO for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 are calculated as follows (in thousands except footnotes):

The diluted weighted shares outstanding used in the calculation of FFO per Diluted Common Share and Normalized FFO per Diluted Common Share were 41.8 million and 41.6 million shares for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively, and 40.8 million and 39.8 million shares for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019, respectively. Common stock equivalents resulting from stock options in the amount of 426,000 and 348,000 shares for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020, respectively, and 240,000 and 238,000 shares for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2019, respectively, are included in the diluted weighted shares outstanding. Common stock equivalents for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2020 were excluded from the computation of the Diluted Net Income (Loss) per Share as their effect would be anti-dilutive.

The following are the cash flows provided (used) by operating, investing and financing activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2020 and 2019 (in thousands):

(2) Represents change in unrealized gain (loss) in marketable securities which is included in the Consolidated Statements of Income (Loss). (Increase) Decrease in Fair Value of Marketable Securities, if any, were previously recorded in Core FFO.

(3) Consists of utility billing dispute over a prior 10-year period ($376,000), emergency windstorm tree removal expenses in two adjacent communities ($126,000) and costs associated with acquisitions not completed ($80,00) in 2019.

# # # #

Contact: Nelli Madden732-577-9997UMH PROPERTIES, INC.Juniper Business Plaza3499 Route 9 North, Suite 3-CFreehold, NJ 07728(732) 577-9997Fax: (732) 577-9980

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UMH PROPERTIES, INC. REPORTS RESULTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2020 - GlobeNewswire