Here are a few quick hits on important dates coming up and then the complete February overview as the gardening season gets closer and closer.

Groundhog Day is Tuesday. If the hog sees his shadow its six more weeks of winter. If he doesnt, the worse is behind us. Then on Wednesday we celebrate the official Midpoint of Winter.

Seeding grass during the dark moon yields good results. The dark moon rules thru Feb. 10 and is back Feb. 27-28.

Plowing in January in February even if the water follows you down the furrow. Get it done before March or youll face problems all summer.

Snow peas by Washingtons birthday, which is Feb. 22. Give it a try if you have the space and your plot is ready.

Making changes: We have a six-day stretch in February for making changes, Feb. 5-10. The moon will be in the dark phase and the signs moving out of the body beyond anything that functions Sagittarius/legs, Capricorn/knees, and Aquarius/legs.

Pouring gravel: If you have gravel to pour on a drive or road on your farm, youll need to wait until the light moon returns on the afternoon of Feb. 11 through the 26th. Dont do it now! The same applies for stones on a garden path.

Ember Days: I cant believe theyre here again so soon, but February features three Ember Days on Feb. 24, 26-27. No planting anywhere on Ember Days, no matter the sign or moon phase.

MOON PHASES: February begins and ends with the dark moon in force. The new or light moon comes into force at 2:06 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on Feb. 11 and rules until the dark moon returns at 3:17 a.m. on Feb. 27. Between those times, Feb. 12-26, the light moon is in force.

When the light moon is in force, plant above-ground producers and when the dark moon rules its below-ground producers.

Check the signs and plant when one of the fertile signs rules in the proper phase of the moon depending on where the veggie will produce. Dont plant when either of the killing signs, Aries or Leo, is in force and dont plant veggies when the flowering signs, Virgo and Libra, rule.

Dont forget the Ember Days, Feb. 24, 26-27. Feb. 24 is ruled by a killing sign while Feb. 26 and 27 are under a flowering sign. These days arent conducive to planting veggies anyway now theyre just plain off limits!

Planting in the so-so signs is a viable alternative to the fertile signs. They are Sagittarius, Capricorn, and Aquarius, Feb. 5-11, with the dark moon ruling until just after 2 p.m. on Feb. 11.

If you can only utilize one aspect of the system for planting, I would suggest going with the moon phases but still avoid the killing signs for any planting and the flowering signs for anything but flowers and the Ember Days this month.

THE SIGNS: Check to see if the moon is in the light or dark phase (information above) before proceeding with any planting anywhere, or other activities. February begins and ends with the flowering sign Libra (the reins) ruling. Well start by reviewing the flowering signs.

Flowering days: Libra rules Feb. 1-2 and 28 while Virgo (the bowels) is up for Feb. 26-27. There are five flowering days in February. About the only flowers you can be planting now are pansies since they can stand most weather extremes. But that will begin to change soon as spring approaches, beginning on March 20.

These are bloom days and flowers planted when they rule should bloom and do so abundantly. Be cautious about planting veggies on flowering days since they tend to spend more time flowering than they do setting fruit. Cautious as in dont do it!

Fertile days: The signs are accompanied by the phase of the moon in which they occur.

Scorpio (the secrets), Feb. 3-4, dark moon ruling; Pisces (the feet), Feb. 12-13, light moon; Taurus (the neck), Feb. 16-18, light moon; and Cancer (the breast), Feb. 21-23, light moon.

There are 10 days this month ruled by the most fertile signs: Scorpio, Pisces, Taurus, and Cancer. All are with the light moon in force except for the two Scorpio days.

So-so days: Sagittarius (the thighs), Feb. 5-6; Capricorn (the knees), Feb. 7-8; and Aquarius (the legs), Feb. 9-11. There are seven days this month ruled by the so-so signs. The dark moon is in force for all but the latter half of the 11th when the light moon comes to rule. Feb. 5-10 six days will be perfect for making changes. See more about that below.

Killing days: No planting, transplanting, or dealing with things you want to thrive should occur on these days. Reserve them for anything but planting anywhere be that garden, greenhouse, pot or cold frame. No planting!

Heres when they rule: Aries (the head) Feb. 14-15 and Leo (the heart), Feb. 24-25. There are just four days in February ruled by the killing signs. And the 24th has the added distinction of being an Ember Day. Thats a day Id just stay in maybe under the house!

These are great days to finish cleaning up your 2020 garden if you havent yet.

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Plantin' by the Signs and other things: Quick takes and February overview - State-Journal.com

On a perfect summer day, the bees drone and a million flowers dance as a dozen people move across the meadow, cutting hay with a rhythmic swish of scythes. As children play, the haymakers pause for refreshments of cake and cider.

This would resemble a scene from a long-lost rural idyll if the scythes were not Austrian carbon-steel and the children were not identifying flowers on smartphones. After a century in which more than 97% of Britains wildflower-rich meadows were destroyed, meadowland is making a comeback.

The miraculous properties of meadows and even, improbably, cutting them with scythes are being cherished again. The charity Plantlife has led the creation of 5,000 hectares (12,000 acres) of wildflower-rich meadows since 2013 including 90 meadows to mark the 60th anniversary of the Queens coronation, in a campaign initiated by Prince Charles. Scores of grassroots meadow groups have also sprung up, inspired by everything from Poldarks scything scenes to books by the Cumbrian hill farmer James Rebanks and the West Sussex landowner Isabella Tree. Wildflowers are returning to not just rural, but urban communities. And this year, the governments Green Recovery Fund will create another 500 hectares of meadows, with trainee meadow makers learning the skills of meadow maintenance.

Even Trevor Dines, Plantlifes botanical specialist, was taken by surprise when he created his own meadow on a small field he bought near his home in north Wales in 2015. The field had been what farmers traditionally describe as improved its grass fertilised and grazed so intensively that delicate wildflowers disappeared. The field had about 20 species of plant. (Many intensively farmed grass fields are now sown with just one rye-grass species.) Dines stripped off this sward to expose the soil and spread fresh hay containing local wildflower seeds from a flower-rich meadow six miles away. This natural seeding technique has been a key principle of the coronation meadows, of which his is one.

Dines cut the grass once a year in late summer and removed the cuttings, because if cut grass is left on the fields, it cycles nutrients back into the soil, and nutrient-rich soils mean that aggressive grass species smother more delicate wildflowers. Then, last spring, Dines sat down to record what was there: 98 species of plant and, on a single day in late May, 2m individual flowers. They produced, he calculated, 1kg of nectar-sugar a day, which could support 83,000 bees. The transformation has been absolutely astonishing, he says. I dont think people appreciate the bags of sugar being produced in these fields.

Meadows are, as Dines puts it, crucibles of biodiversity. Up to 40 plant species are found in a square metre of chalk downland meadow. These plants support a tumult of other life; a typical suite of meadow plants provides food for 1,400 invertebrate species. Pollinators such as bees are really important, but its the aphids, thrips, grasshoppers, bugs and beetles living on plant matter, thats the real powerhouse of biodiversity in these areas.

Meadows are crucial sanctuaries during an extinction crisis, but also offer numerous practical benefits. For a start, they are better for livestock health. If livestock eat species-rich meadow grass, they take in natural herbal medicines, such as birds foot trefoil, which reduces gut parasites. (Birds foot trefoil also supports 150 invertebrate species.) More diverse meadows supply more minerals too. Were giving our livestock a really nice varied diet, which is what they want, says Dines.

The name water meadow gives a clue to another practical function: valley-bottom meadows hold flood water (and new estates often named after the meadows they destroy have been foolishly built on them). And, Dines says, meadows excel at storing carbon; grasslands in Britain store more carbon than any other habitat. Whats really exciting is that the biggest levels of carbon sequestration happen when you convert an arable field into a species-rich pasture, says Dines. Once established, a meadow is a stable store of carbon; plough it up, and the carbon is released.

Helen Baczkowska of Norfolk Wildlife Trust is another meadow maker. Working with farmers, she is restoring lost meadows by re-seeding them with hay from roadside verges, virtually the last sanctuary for wildflowers in parts of lowland Britain.

Meadows were celebrated by the Romantics. Among the meadows hay cocks / Tis beautiful to lie / When pleasantly the day looks / And gold like is the sky, wrote the rural poet John Clare in the 1800s. Their destruction is often blamed on the dig for victory campaign during the second world war, but the loss, says Baczkowska, was because meadows ceased to have an economic function. For a long time grasslands were really needed to feed cattle and working horses on mixed farms in winter, she says. Since the 30s, farms have fed grain to their livestock and, of course, moved away from horse power. Even those meadows that werent ploughed up became in very poor condition because there was no incentive to manage them, she says.

During the second half of the 20th century and into this one, the destruction of meadows quietly continued. Now, however, Baczkowska sees a new awakening to their beauty and importance, and believes this has intensified since the start of the pandemic. Ive seen a real change in the last 10 years. People are looking more and more to what they can do on their local patch. Not just gardens but playing fields, parish grounds and commons. Pollinator strips and wildflower strips are so easy to deliver, and when people marry it with using local seed, thats great.

Most meadow-makers buy wildflower seeds for the initial creation. However, Baczkowska explains, commercially produced seed is grown to be harvested on the same day, so new knapweed flowers, for instance, will flower together and go to seed in the same week. Hand-collecting local seed as Norfolk Wildlife Trust does in partnership with Norfolk Farming and Wildlife Advisory Group, a charity run by farmers gives meadows a much longer flowering season, making them more useful to pollinators, and more beautiful. Keeping local seed types going will give you this resilience to climate change. Its not just the diversity of species; diversity of genetics is really important, says Baczkowska.

The individuality of different meadows is their strength. On Landseer park, in the heart of urban Ipswich, wildflower-rich chalk banks created by the charity Buglife and an inspiring young conservationist, David Dowding, an Ipswich borough council ranger, are now home to scarce butterflies such as the dark green fritillary. Off the busy A19 between York and Selby is Three Hagges, a woodmeadow created in 2012 by Ros Forbes Adam, whose family has farmed the area for 350 years.

Forbes Adam cheerfully admits she hadnt a clue when she began creating what she and her husband originally planned as a new wood on a 10-hectare barley field. She obtained a Forestry Commission grant to plant trees but, crucially, also secured an agreement to make meadows on 40% of the site. What emerged is what ecologists call wood pasture or woodmeadow, a mosaic of grass and woodland that was once widespread in ancient Britain and still occurs in Scandinavia and eastern Europe.

More than 1,000 invertebrate species have now been recorded, including 34 bee species, 26 butterfly species and 43 hoverfly species none of which were found on the old barley field. Three Hagges, which is open to the public, has been a sanctuary for people, too: there are school visits and 90 volunteers help manage the site.

My eureka moment of believing we had done the right thing, says Forbes Adam, was when Meg Abu Hamdan, who records butterflies here, told me: When I walk through the gate of Three Hagges, I step into my 25 acres of hope. And also when I held my first pygmy shrew, came across wood anemone flowering and saw my first marbled white butterfly.

Forbes Adam has since created a charity, the Woodmeadow Trust, which is advising more than a dozen other community groups and landowners on woodmeadow projects, from Yorkshire to London. Its really exciting that we are starting to inspire other people, says Forbes Adam. Our aspiration is a woodmeadow in every parish.

But can it really be wise to lose productive food-producing fields to flowers? We have to look at the bigger picture, argues Forbes Adam. It brings huge numbers of pollinators to the landscape, which benefit all the neighbouring farmers.

Some rewilders may scorn this careful management for not allowing nature to run free. But Dines points to his results. I started with a field with hardly any flowers. Ive got 9m flowers on a summers day. Are you going to tell me thats not rewilding? Ive put the wild back into that field. Unfortunately I only own a few acres, but if every farmer did one little meadow, wed soon bring wildlife back.

If you dont have a garden, join local groups (or your parish council) that manage parks, playing fields, church yards or school grounds. Encourage them to create pollinator strips or allow areas of long grass in summer. Many people still see long grass as untidy, but will be won over if it is filled with flowers and framed by short grass or mown paths.

Any lawn or verge can be rewilded. Some remove turf and top-soil before sowing. Or just scuff up existing sward with a spade and a rake to make space for new seed. I use Emorsgate Seeds for native wildflowers, but if you can find a local seed source, that is even better.

Add native yellow rattle seeds to lawns. The rattle parasitises the grass and enables other wildflowers to grow.

Plantlife urges people to sign up to No Mow May. Ideally a wildflower meadow should be cut (with grass cuttings removed) in late summer. But creating a mosaic of long and short grass in a garden is best for diversity. Leave grass cuttings in a sunny corner for grass snakes.

Every Flower Counts. Take part in this plant survey and Plantlife will give you your own personal nectar score, so you can see how many bees your wilder lawn is feeding.

Wildflowers for the Queen: A Visual Celebration of Britains Coronation Meadows by Hugo Rittson Thomas will be published by Wildflower Press on 4 February. To buy for 43.50 (RRP 50) go to bookshop.theguardian.com

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Flower power! The movement to bring back Britain's beautiful meadows - The Guardian

IF YOU win one award you are doing something right but it you win two then you are doing a lot right.

It was announced last week that the winner of the disadvantaged land category in the Grassland Farmer of the Year Awards was Pallasgreen's Sean Barry. Back in 2018, Sean and his father Patrick were the Limerick regional winners of the Dairygold Milk Quality Awards for consistently supplying the best quality milk to the co-op throughout 2017.

The Grassland Farmer of the Year Awards ceremony took place as a live webinar last week. The 15 finalists were profiled and winners of each category along with the overall winner were announced.

The Barrys milk 70 cows with a stocking rate of 3.2 LU/ha on the milking platform in Ballyluddy. The milking platform is split in three with a busy main road and minor road.

The farm is mostly heavy soil type and as such has required essential investments in grazing infrastructure, drainage and re-seeding to get it to where it is today.

In 2020 the farm grew over 13 T DM/ha. Sean aims to get cows out grazing by March 10 but this varies year to year. To help this Sean walks the farm daily in early March to identify dry areas within paddocks that the cows can graze. He also ensures they are not full of silage before going out and uses on-off grazing to get grass into the diet.

Sean included clover in reseeds in 2020 and plans to continue to do this in 2021 but he ensures the soil fertility is correct before this. The Barrys cows produced 485 Kg MS per cow, supplied to Dairygold Co-op, from 670 kg meal in 2019.

Sean was one of 15 finalists in the Grassland Farmer of the Year competition which recognises farmers who are achieving high levels of grass utilisation in a sustainable manner. Irish agriculture faces serious challenges in trying to meet Greenhouse Gas and Ammonia emissions targets. Improved Nutrient Management and the use of clover are now more important than ever.

The sustainability of our livestock production must improve. Some farmers have to operate with difficult land and the competition also recognises this. Awards are made to those farmers who demonstrate excellence in specific areas of grassland on their farm and Sean is certainly doing that to win the disadvantaged land category.

The Grassland Farmer of the Year competition is run as part of the Teagasc Grass10 grassland campaign. The focus of Grass10 is on encouraging grassland farmers to grow and utilise more grass in the animals diet. The aim is to help farmers utilise 10 tonnes grass dry matter per hectare per annum, with 10 grazings per paddock per year.

The Grassland Farmer of the Year competition is supported by the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Teagasc, Allied Irish Bank, FBD Insurance, Grassland Agro and Irish Farmers Journal.

Limerick has a proud record in the competition with John and Olivia Macnamara, Knockainey previously winning the overall award and the dairy enterprise award.

Niall Moloney, Crecora has been named Young Grassland Farmer of the Year. While John Leahy, Athea, won the most improved grassland merit award.

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WATCH: Limerick dairy farmer wins on the double for grassland and milk - Limerick Leader

Baths Pink has soft pink flowers with deeply fringed petals.

Firewitch produces a profusion of magenta flowers.

Frosty Fire has bright red 2.5-cm (1-in.) flowers.

Spotty has cherry red flowers with prominent white spots from late spring to early summer.

Tiny Rubies is smaller in all aspects than the species. It bears bright pink 1-cm (0.4-in.) flowers on 5- to 10-cm (2-4 in.) stems for most of the summer.

Cottage pinks (D. plumarius) form dense mounds of linear, blue-green leaves. Fragrant pink 2.5-cm (1-in.) single or double flowers are produced in clusters of three to five on stems that are 30 to 60 cm (12-24 in.) high.

Sweetness is a seed grown variety that blooms its first year. Flowers vary from white to deep rose with red eyes and are very fragrant. It is very compact to 15 cm (6 in.) tall.

Pink Princess has light pink, semi-double flowers throughout the summer. It was developed in Cheyenne, Wyoming and has been grown in prairie gardens since the 1960s.

Sara Williams is the author of Gardening Naturally with Hugh Skinner, Creating the Prairie Xeriscape, and with Bob Bors, Growing Fruit in Northern Gardens. She gives workshops on a wide range of gardening topics throughout the prairies.

This column is provided courtesy of the Saskatchewan Perennial Society (SPS; saskperennial@hotmail.com). Check our website (saskperennial.ca) or Facebook page (facebook.com/saskperennial). All Saskatchewan Perennial Society events are on hold until further notice.

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Gardening: In the pink: Dianthus - Saskatoon StarPhoenix

A few weeks back, I presented a three-part series in which I performed a detailed analysis of the Big Ten schedule. In Part One, I looked at the Big Ten conference slate and did some math related to the strength of each teams schedule. The results suggested that MSU was given a schedule of average difficultly, while potential conference favorite Wisconsin (according to the Kenpom preseason projections) was given a remarkably easy schedule.

In Parts Two and Three, I made additional calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the odds for each Big Ten team to win both the regular season title and the Big Ten Tournament Title. In both cases, Wisconsin also had the best preseason odds.

In the days that followed, the idea that the schedule was biased in favor of the Badgers weighed on my mind. I wondered if it would be possible to construct a schedule that was more fair. It soon became clear to me that I could use the same tools that I used to analyze the strength of each teams Big Ten schedule to address this issue. Once I saw the entrance to the rabbit hole, I had to try to find the bottom.

The first step was to craft an algorithm that would generate a random Big Ten conference schedule based on its current form. The schedules have each team playing a total of 20 games. Seven of the opponents are played twice (once at home and once away). The remaining six opponents are either played only at hone or only on the road. With a bit of work, I was able to write some simple code that allowed me to generate random schedules for the entire conference fairly quickly.

Once I accomplished this, I needed to define a way to quantify the fairness of a given, random set of schedules. In Part One of the series referenced above, I explained my methodology for calculating strength of schedule. The basic principle is to calculate the expected number of wins that an average Power Five teams (as good as, for example, Indiana) would earn with any given schedule. It is trivial to make this calculation for all 14 Big Ten schedules by using Kenpom efficiency data to estimate win probabilities for any set of Big Ten games.

I also performed a corrected version of this calculation by artificially adjusting the strength of one average Big Ten team (Indiana) to instead be equal to that of the team whose schedule is being analyzed. This corrects for a potential bias in the numbers due to the fact that weak teams and strong teams dont play themselves.

In order to quantify the fairness of the entire Big Ten schedule, I calculated both the range and standard deviations of my calculated strengths of schedule (both regular and corrected) for all 14 individual schedules. In other words, I looked at the quantitative difference between the toughest and easiest schedules as well as the overall variance for all 14 schedules.

I then scanned the list of randomly generated schedules, searching for the one with the smallest standard deviation of corrected schedule strengths. I generated over 40,000 potential schedules and found the one with the smallest variance. This is perhaps the one of the most optimized schedule that can be created, based on the projected preseason strength of each team in 2020.

To refresh our memories, Table 1 below summarizes the actual 2020 Big Ten conference schedule. Relative to each row, the green cells represent the single-play home games while the orange cells are single-play road games. For example, MSU plays Wisconsin only once at home this year and only plays Maryland on the road.

Without doing any math at all, it is easy to see why Wisconsin has such a schedule advantage. The Badgers are the only Big Ten team with two scheduled games against the four projected weakest teams in the conference (Maryland, Penn State, Northwestern, and Nebraska). Furthermore, the Badgers draw Kenpoms No. 2 and No. 3 ranked teams (Ohio State and Michigan State) only once.

First, I was curious how the actual schedule compares to a set of randomly generated schedules, based on the fairness metrics described above. Figure 1 below makes this comparison.

As the histograms above shows, not all schedules are created equally. Just based on range alone (the difference between the hardest and easiest schedule) some full conference schedules can differ by over a game and a half in expected wins. However, it is possible to find schedules where the team with the easiest schedule has less than a half of a win advantage over the team with the most difficult schedule.

If the raw, uncorrected strength of schedule values are considered (the blue bars), the real 2020 schedule is quite a bit less fair than the an average, random schedule based on both range and variance. If the corrected values are used (the orange bars), the 2020 schedule is average.

However, it is clearly possible to do better. If I select the individual schedule that showed the lowest observed corrected strength of schedule variance (located all the way to the left in the histogram in the right panel of Figure 1) that schedule looks like this:

While it is always difficult to compare one wall of numbers to another, the schedule shown in Table 2 looks a lot more fair on its face compared to the real schedule. First of all, there is much better balance at the bottom of the table. The top eight Big Ten teams all play the collective bottom four conference teams a total of six times. No team plays all four of these teams twice (as Wisconsin does in the actual schedule) and only two teams (Rutgers and Minnesota) play this collection of teams a total of seven times.

A similar balance is also found at the top of the table. Every team which the exception of Illinois, Michigan, and Purdue, have exactly two single-play matchups among the top four projected Big Ten teams (Wisconsin, MSU, Ohio State, and Iowa). That all said, this schedule still seems challenging for Nebraska, which draws four single-play games amongst the bottom four Big Ten teams not named Nebraska.

A more quantitative comparison of the actual and optimized Big Ten schedules is shown below in Figure 2. In this case, the individual team schedules are ordered from easiest (left) to hardest (right) to make the comparison easier to see. Also, the left panel shows the raw strength and schedule calculation, while the right panel gives the corrected values which are what were used in the optimization.

The data in both panels shows a clear difference in the two full conference schedules. For the raw strength of schedule calculation (left panel) the difference between the easiest schedule and ninth easiest schedule is over half a win in the actual schedule, but less than a quarter of a win in the optimized schedule.

In both cases, there is a drop off in expected win for two most difficult schedules. In both the actual and optimized scenarios, these schedules belong to Northwestern and Nebraska, the two teams that project to be the weakest in the Big Ten this year. This is no coincidence, as once again those two teams suffer from not getting to play themselves.

Fortunately, the corrected strength of schedule appears to handle for this problem. As the right panel shows, the full range of expended wins for an average power five team (i.e. strength of schedule) only differs by slightly over 0.3 wins which seems to be about as fair of a schedule that can be created. In the actual schedule, this range is almost 0.8 wins.

One could make the argument that the it would be better to optimize the schedule based on the raw strength of schedule values as opposed to the corrected values. After all, the left panel still suggests that Northwestern and Nebraska draw the short straw. On some level that is true.

However, a schedule optimized based on the raw strength of schedule values would effectively be creating a schedule that is easier for the weaker teams and harder for the stronger teams. While this seems like a nice gesture, what happens if Nebraska is actually much better than expected? In this scenario, the Huskers would suddenly have an advantage, simply because they were under-valued in the preseason. For this reason, I believe that the corrected values are the best way to find the most fair Big Ten schedule.

That said, there are a few aspects of the schedule that are still perhaps not ideal. For example, Michigan State and Michigan only play each other once. The same is true of Purdue and Indiana. In reality, it would be better if these types of rivalry games would be protected. There may be other constraints on scheduling of which I am not aware.

In any event, it would be simple to modify my algorithm to exclude any random schedule that does not meet these criteria. I am confident that this method can and perhaps should be used to create a better Big Ten schedule. If anyone in the MSU athletic department or the Big Ten office is reading this and would like my assistance, send me a direct message. (I am sort of kidding... but not really).

The strength of schedule calculations discussed above provide a pathway to create a schedule that is mathematically more fair. The next logical question is if the impact of a more level playing field actually matters. I touched on this issue briefly in the original series, but I would like to revisit the topic now that we have a more balanced schedule to compare to the original one.

For this study, I once again ran a series of Monte Carlo simulations on the full Big Ten season using both the actual Big Ten schedule and the optimized schedule shown in Table 2 above. This simulation outputs the odds for each Big Ten team to win the regular season Big Ten title (outright or shared). For here out in order to keep things simple, I will focus only on the results of the simulation for Wisconsin (the Kenpom presumed favorite) and Michigan State.

In addition to the baselines simulation using preseason Kenpom efficiency margin values to assign each team a certain strength, I ran three additional simulations in order to try to separate the effect of the schedule from the effect of each teams strength. In one simulation, I artificially swapped the strength of MSU and Wisconsin. In effect, this simulates the effect of Wisconsin playing MSUs schedule while MSU plays Wisconsins schedule.

In the other two simulations, MSU and Wisconsin are assumed to be equal in strength, either both as good as Wisconsins preseason projection or both as good as MSUs preseason projection. This set of simulations was performed using both the actual schedule as well as the optimized schedule. The results are shown below in Figure 3.

This figure contains a ton of information. The best way to extract information is to make various comparisons between the different scenarios. If we start with the real schedule (left panel) we can see that in the baseline simulation (using the real Kenpom efficiency margin preseason data) Wisconsin has almost exactly a 20-percentage point advantage over Michigan State in the race for the Big Ten title. The is the same data that I presented in Part Two of my series.

If the two teams had schedules with equal difficulty, swapping the schedules should also swap the championship percentages. In the case of the optimized schedule, this is true within one percentage point. But in the actual schedule, there is a significant gap.

In the baseline case Wisconsins championship odds (38.5 percent) are notably higher than MSUs odds if their strengths are swapped (31.9 percent). In effect, this is equivalent to Wisconsin playing MSUs schedule, and it implies that Wisconsins schedule is worth about six and a half percentage points. A similar analysis of MSUs baseline odds (18.4 percent) to the odds for Wisconsin if they were equally as good as MSU (23.9 percent, the second red bar) gives a five and and half percentage point difference.

A similar story is told by the third and forth sets of bars. In these cases, MSU and Wisconsin have equal Kenpom efficiency margins, but in both cases, the Badgers odds are better (by seven percentage points and five and a half percentage points). It should also be noted that in the right panel of Figure 3 (the optimized schedule) if MSU and Wisconsin have the same efficiency margin, they also have almost identical odds.

Looking at the data from another point of view provides insight into how much of an advantage Wisconsin has simply because of the higher preseason efficiency margin. In other words, how much does an advantage in actual (or simulated) team strength impact the title odds?

This value can be estimated by comparing the first two red bars to each other or the first two green bars to each other in either panel. This is simply the difference in odds that each team would have with the same schedule and either their MSU or Wisconsins strength. The difference varies between 13.5 and 14.5 percentage points.

All of this data points to one basic fact: Wisconsins calculated 20-percentage point preseason advantage in the regular season odds is due to a one-third contribution of a schedule advantage (about 6.5 percentage points) and a two-thirds contribution (about 13.5 percentage points) from Wisconsins estimated efficiency margin advantage.

In addition, I feel that Figure 3 makes a fair case that if an ideal Big Ten schedule is constructed, this schedule advantage shrinks to zero. That said, I should also point out that in all four comparisons in the right panel of Figure 3, MSU actually has about a one-percentage point advantage over the Badgers, which appears to arise due to a combination of MSUs very slightly easier schedule in the ideal scenario, combined with the slightly larger home court advantage that Kempon assigns to the Breslin Center relative to the Kohl Center.

While the results of the analysis above are interesting (at least to people like me...and I assume anyone still reading this) there are still a few questions that remain. This entire analysis hinges on the idea that the preseason efficiency margin data is correct. The season is now several games in and already some teams have moved up or down. I showed above that Wisconsins preseason efficiency margin advantage (+1.79 compared to MSU) is worth about 13.5-percentage points. But, what happens when that value changes? How sensitive are the title odds to these numbers?

In order to clarify this, I ran one additional simple set of simulations. In this case, I fixed the efficiencies margins for all Big Ten teams and varied the efficiency margin of Wisconsin from a value of 18.00 (roughly the quality of a bubble team, ranked around No. 30 in Kenpom) all the way to to a value of 30.00 (roughly the quality of the No. 1 ranked team in Kenpom in any given year).

I then calculated both the expected win totals and regular season title odds for Wisconsin using the actual schedule. Those results are shown below in Figure 4. The same data is also shown for MSU (using their fixed, preseason efficiency margin as a reference).

Note that the actual preseason values for each team are shown with the large, solid data point. The data in Figure 4 looks about like one would expect it to look. A bubble team (with an efficiency margin of 18) would be expected to win just over 10 games in conference play and have less than a 10 percent chance to win the Big Ten regular season, while a team ranked No. 1 in Kenpom (with an efficiency margin of 30) would be expected to win close to 16 games and would have over an 80 percent chance to win the Big Ten.

The correlations are not truly linear (especially for the title odds) but I included the linear fit equations in each plot for reference. In both cases, the slopes provide a good rule of thumb for the sensitivity of expected wins and title odds. Specifically, for every 1.00 improvement in efficiency margin, a teams expected win total will increase by about 0.44 wins and the title odds will improve by about 6.7 percent for a team in a conference like the Big Ten in 2020.

Note that the second number is consistent with Wisconsins roughly 13-percentage point schedule-independent advantage mentioned above, considering their almost 2.00 lead in efficiency margin over the second best Big Ten team. Also note that Wisconsins schedule advantage is worth almost exactly 1.00 in efficiency margin.

The artificial change in Wisconsins strength makes a relatively small impact on MSUs expected wins and even odds. MSU only faces Wisconsin once, so it makes sense that MSUs expected win total is almost unaffected. As for the title odds, MSUs odds decrease gradually as the strength of the Badgers increases. Even in the cases where Wisconsin is really good, MSUs odds only drop by eight to ten percentage points. Basically, MSU still mows their own grass, more or less.

Finally, this analysis begs the question of the general correlation between expected wins and regular season title odds. That correlation is shown below and was derived for the original baseline simulation of all 14 Big Ten teams combined with the Wisconsin sensitivity analysis discussed above.

Again, this plot makes a lot of sense. If a teams expected win total is around 10 wins or less, the odds to win the Big Ten are very low (five percent or less). Those odds increase fairly linearly to close to 90 percent as the expected win total approaches 16. Recent history suggests that the regular season Big Ten champs usually win roughly 16 games in a 20-game schedule. Furthermore, the slope of the line suggests that every whole win improvement is worth about 17 percentage points in championship odds.

At this point, I think that it is safe to say that I have beaten the preseason Kenpom data to a bloody pulp. Fortunately, the Big Ten season is right around the corner, and the analytical tools at my disposal will allow for a real time tracking of expected wins, regular season championship odds, and Big Ten tournament seeding and odds.

The first Big Ten game tips off on Sunday, Dec. 13, and I plan to give a brief update on the numbers which reflect the changes that have occurred since the preseason data was released. I will then provide updates following most MSU games. That is all for now. Until next time, enjoy, and Go Green

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Big Ten Basketball Mathematical Analysis, Addendum: The Ideal Schedule - The Only Colors

Elissa BunnMaster Gardener of El Dorado County

Cover crops are a great resource for home gardeners. They are essentially a ground cover for an area in the garden that might otherwise be bare for a season. They can be used in both cool and warm seasons. Gardeners plant cool-season cover crops ranging from legumes (peas, beans, clover, vetch, etc.) to grasses (rye, barley, triticale, etc.) for a variety of purposes.

All cover crops should be sown, sprouted and cut down before any flowering or seeding begins. You want to get maximum greenery instead of letting the plants put their energy into flowering and seeding. The cut-down plants can be tilled into the soil as food for decomposer organisms, which break down and release the plants nutrients into the soil, or they can be shredded and left on the top of soil if you prefer the no-till approach. Either way, you are helping improve the health of your soil and health of microorganisms in that soil.

Now for more specifics on different kinds of cover crops.

Legumes help fix nitrogen in soil through a symbiotic relationship with a bacterium. When the bacteria attach to the legume roots, the contact creates small bubble-like nodules that make a ready-to-use form of nitrogen. In a garden bed that has had heavy nitrogen feeder crops like tomatoes, squash, broccoli or lettuce, a legume cover crop could be seeded and cut down to help restore nitrogen for the next growing season.

Grasses help aerate and perforate dense, poorly draining soils. Grasses have deep, finger-like roots that reach into the soil and break up hard soils like the clay found in El Dorado County. These root systems can improve drainage, especially after the surface grasses are cut and tilled in.

Warm-season cover crops are used less in our climate because we love our tomatoes and peppers and want plenty of garden space for them. Nonetheless, some warm-season cover crops include the legume cow peas and the not-a-grass buckwheat. Both have deep roots and great green foliage. The same rule of cutting them down before flowering applies to warm-season cover crops.

Less common cover crops to break up hard soil are daikon radishes, mustard and other tap root plants. These plants can usually be seeded for cool or warm season; just make sure to read your seed information.

When planting your cover crop seed, warm or cool season, make sure you protect it from bird predation using mulch, a floating row cover or anything in between. Birds just love succulent sprouts when the seasons are changing. Another thing to consider is timing wait too long to plant in the fall and your cover crop will be fighting cold temps while germinating; plant too early and lack of rainfall might create the need to irrigate.

Which cover crop will be best for your situation? Use the information above, do some research and try it out. Mix and match or buy a pre-mixed seed; there are many options. We often get discouraged and quit after one try but, remember, this is gardening. There are so many variables. Dont give up after a disappointing result. After three years I have finally figured out the right cover crop for my home garden. Keep experimenting and you will find the best cover crop for your garden too.

Due to the pandemic, Master Gardener events will for the foreseeable future continue to be limited. Master Gardeners currently have no classes scheduled until next year. Keep checking the calendar of events for classes at mgeldorado.ucanr.edu/Public_Education_Classes/?calendar=yes&g=56698 to see what will be offered in the future. Find recorded classes on many gardening topics at ucanr.edu/sites/EDC_Master_Gardeners/Public_Education_Classes/Handouts_-_Presentations/.

Have a gardening question? Master Gardeners are working hard remotely and can still answer questions. Leave a message on the office telephone (530) 621-5512 or use the Ask a Master Gardener option at mgeldorado.ucanr.edu. Master Gardeners are also on Facebook, Instagram, and Pinterest.

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Grow For It! The benefits of cover crops - Mountain Democrat

I was excited to read that intermediate wheatgrass is now approved for human use in the U.S.

This report is featured in the New Seed Variety Guide for 2021 put out by the Western Producer, Canadas preeminent farm newspaper.

Now if you are a cattle producer you might know about this crop as a cattle feed, mostly as a grazing plant.

If you have had an eye on innovation in agriculture then you might know about the Land Institute in Salina, Kansas, or the more recent Minnesota Land Institute that launched a commercial variety which has been under development for 20 years.

The variety recently released for sale is a human food grade called MN Clearwater. It is promoted as superfood with environmental and health benefits.

As ranchers and farmers, we are always looking for better nutrition for our animals and as consumers we are all looking for nutrient dense foods since the industrial system of food productions often reduces the nutrient content, especially the micronutrient (essential for health) content.

READ MORE: Impacts of COVID-19 on food systems

I have written before about the Land Institute in Kansas and its leadership in developing crops that dont need to be seeded every year (annuals) with all the attendant costs of farming the land: plowing, disking, harrowing, seeding etc.

In a nutshell what the Land Institute in Kansas and their Minnesota partners aim to do is to advance perennial (lasting many years without reseeding) grains and polycultures (many crops all sewn together).

The Minnesota Land Institute has developed the first new grain crop in 4,200 years. The founding Kansas Institute set about developing the first perennial grains and figured it would take 50 to 100 years to commercialize such crops.

It was 1976 that Wes and Dana Jackson founded the Land Institute when his research science jobs at universities were taking a different tact: inventing destructive crop practices that used up soil and polluted land and water.

That was 45 years ago. Some beneficial innovations take decades.

Now to feed the world without depreciating the sustainability of farming practices and the land, this innovation is welcomed.

The scientists and farmers behind this new (old) crop are hopeful intermediate wheat grass grain can be mixed with traditional wheats for cooking and baking.

Beer fans will be interested that one of the first food products from the MN Clearwater variety is Kernza Ale or Long Root Ale. Yes, beer is food.

READ MORE: Flooding fun enjoyed by Cariboo family

The ecological benefits of this perennial plant, is that it can use nutrients that might otherwise be lost to the soil and the long vigorous roots systems can build healthy soil.

Intermediate wheatgrass is native to Europe and Western Asia. I see the potential to plant this crop as a part of a rotation designed to help grow and finish beef locally, since we are not a big grain growing region.

If the animals can graze, it may be cost effective. Plus, it is a grass and grassing beef programs can use it.

Check this crop out with Peace Forage Tools, from a neighbouring crop trial region.

David Zirnhelt is a rancher and member of the Cariboo Cattlemens Association. He is also chair of the Advisory Committee for the Applied Sustainable Ranching Program at TRU.

Do you have a comment about this story? email: editor@wltribune.comLike us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Williams Lake Tribune

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RANCH MUSINGS: Perennial cereals and their potential to heal - BCLocalNews

John Gaines|The Hawk Eye

There is more fuel than just ethanol fuel being made at Big River Resources in West Burlington.

In 2018, the company began a project to create acreage by the facility at 15210 103rd St. into a Monarch Fueling Station. The work has been completed and this fall butterflies were beginning to stop at the open space.

Its a reflection on what ethanol companies are all about, Big River Resources environmental compliance coordinator Ryan Janson told The Hawk Eye in May of 2018. Were taking care of our environment.

The project initiallywas proposed as a 1.8 acre site but was expanded to 5 acres. The area has been planted with a mix of flowers, prairie plants and milkweed. Its a pollinationmix called 10-40.

Its got a mixture of flowers for butterflies and bees and milkweed for the monarch butterflies, Janson said. "We had Des Moines County Conservation come out and help seed the land."

Janson said Iowa Iowa Renewable Fuels Association came up with idea and pitched the project across Iowa. Big River Resourcesalso has created a monarch station at the plant in Dyersville.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service played a role in the project helping fund the spraying and seeding. The group also is in the final stages to have monarch butterflies listed as endangered species. Plans are in place to complete this work in December.

Due to wet conditions in 2018 the project was delayed. It wasnt until the spring and summer of 2019 the plot wasplanted.

The property was first sprayed to kill offovergrowth and provide a clean slate for planting of the proper species of flora.

The plot was just short grass and we kept it mowed, Janson said. We had to spray and knock down what was there in 2019.

The work on preparing the land was done with the help of Land and Water Vegetation Control out of Wever.

This is the first year (2020) that it came up, said Janson.We are letting it do its thing now.

And as shown in the photos the butterflies are beginning to use this resource as fuel to perpetuate their species.

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Big River Resources uses extra acreage at the West Burlington facility for a butterfly habitat - Burlington Hawk Eye

Wild horses reducing prodigious grass and brush fuel loading in a wildfire-prone wilderness area. William E Simpson

Naturalist and rancher William E. Simpson outlines why he thinks replacing wild horses with cattle in wilderness areas is costly to taxpayers and to the landscape.

The financial impacts of poorly managed public lands, especially wilderness, are very costly, far-reaching and significantly affect taxpayer pocketbooks and lifestyles, with direct and tertiary impacts.

Growing livestock management issues on public lands, especially in wilderness areas, is a major concern given that cattle and sheep are invasive animal species in North America that interrupt the naturally evolved evolutionary processes and trophic cascades, which results in undeniable damage to entire ecosystems. The unraveling of natures intricate evolutionary complexities yields losses to the forestry industry, recreational interests, watersheds and related fisheries, among others.

Both cattle and sheep have complex (multiple) stomachs and digest virtually all the seeds they consume from flowering plants and grasses, thus interrupting the natural reseeding of the flora in any given ecosystem where they graze.

Over time, via the disintermediation of natural reseeding processes, cattle and sheep grazing will strip the landscape of any ecosystem of much of its native flora, which is depended upon by numerous native species.

In wilderness areas where there are threatened and endangered species of flora, and native fauna that depend upon the native flora for their existence, livestock grazing can wipe out the native flora, thus adversely affecting native fauna as well.

Science shows that horses, having single stomachs, virtually pass all of the seeds they consume intact and able to germinate in their droppings, which in fact reseeds the landscapes where they graze on native flora.

When the soils of the landscape are depleted of native flora via cattle and sheep grazing, soils lose the stability that was provided by root systems and are then subject to catastrophic erosion during seasonal rains.

This abnormal erosion process also occurs when catastrophic wildfire (abnormally hot wildfire) defoliates a landscape and pasteurizes soils, killing root systems that stabilized the soils.

The recent evolution of catastrophic wildfire in western American states is also a result of less than adequate natural resource management, which has led to the collapse of large native species herbivores that had been consuming and maintaining fuel loads of grass and brush across the landscape to nominal levels annually.

Wild horses, with past populations in the tens of millions in the 17th century and numbering about two million in the early 19th century, were an important species in North America in regard to maintaining grass and brush fuels to nominal levels, while concurrently maintaining an evolved natural reseeding process across the landscapes where they grazed. In this regard, wild horses are unique, and their symbiosis is critically important in the American landscape.

Mankind and all of our technology (including modern livestock grazing) cannot duplicate the symbiotic value (in dollars it is worth tens of millions of dollars annually) that wild horses provide to plants and grasses on remote wildfire-prone wilderness landscapes.

The stripping of the flora from the landscape via invasive species grazing or by catastrophic wildfire, in turn, leads to catastrophic runoff and abnormal erosion. This abnormal runoff and erosion results in the silting-in of the gravel beds of the streams and rivers used by spawning salmon and trout. The silting covers fish eggs that may already be present, which are suffocated by the mud. And gravel beds that become silted-in no longer provide space within the gravels (also known as redds) for any fish eggs. The consequences are failed trout and salmon runs, among other issues.

There are tens of millions of acres of rugged and remote American wilderness landscape which are targeted for livestock grazing. These rugged and remote landscapes cannot be cultivated and managed using mechanized grass farming (re-seeding) methods, which are required to renew grasses on private tillable ranch land areas grazed by cattle and sheep. And therein is the problem. In the wilderness, which is mostly untillable because of steep and rough terrain, once the land is defoliated it cannot be reseeded by existing mechanized methods.

The end result is landscapes that are stripped of native flora by cattle and sheep become erosion-prone lands because they are defoliated and not reseeded. A further effect of this process is the depletion of aquifers in such areas with reduced ground-cover, leading to the ultimate failure of riparian areas.

Wild horses evolved in North America 55 million years ago and, as science shows, they have for millennia been natures reseeding experts in remote wilderness areas. It is my view that wild horses never went extinct in North America, as some people and agencies suggest. In fact, the most recent and best (unbiased) science proves that wild horses were present in North America before the arrival of any European explorers on the continent.

European explorers of the 16th century reintroduced additional horses to North America, horses that were descended from the North American wild horses that had migrated across the Aleutian land bridge about 17,000 years ago. The latest cultural and archaeo-zoology research presents a very strong case for these facts.

Public lands are arguably no longer managed sensibly, nor in the very highest standard of the public interest. And for that, American taxpayers pay the price. Instead, its becoming clear that our public lands are for sale to the highest bidder for exploitation by the livestock and mineral extraction industries, with livestock production being as ecologically egregious as the extraction industries.

The financial impacts related to livestock grazing on wilderness area lands is much greater than it may seem at first blush, and is largely based on the virtually irreversible adverse impacts that livestock grazing has on wilderness areas.

The unreasonable reduction of wild horses is supported heavily by the cattle and beef industries, and by those who lobby heavily for the livestock production industry to government agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), US Department of Interior (DOI) and US Fish and Wildlife (USFW).

Wild horses are arguably being exterminated from Americas public lands to create more livestock grazing; and because the additional funding to the BLM for wild horse roundups are a source of incremental revenue likely derived from related administrative fees levied for program oversight.

I intentionally use the term exterminated because of the method that has been crafted to manage wild horses into extinction and remove any impediments to expanded livestock grazing programs on BLM managed public lands, especially wilderness lands.

In short, the plan that has been adopted by the BLM that will arguably exterminate wild horses by motived people was carefully constructed to accomplish several key psychological milestones to limit public pushback.

The plan is accomplished in part by the use of studies funded by biased parties that misinform and confuse the American public (taxpayers) and their elected officials into believing these falsehoods:

All of the foregoing statements can be proven false in the light of facts.

The planned wild horse extermination process currently involves reducing population levels in herd areas below the numbers of breeding animals required to maintain genetic diversity and vigor of the species; and secondly, concurrently treating remaining female wild horses with chemicals (PZP and GonaCon) that cause sterility in mares as well as social disruption in family bands. The social disruption alone in any species of wildlife, including wild horses, is very detrimental, as science shows.

There is also a program on the table to spay wild horse mares using an archaic, cruel, and dangerous surgery ovariectomy via colpotomy.

In order to properly manage Americas natural resources, especially the remaining wilderness areas, we must take care in engaging the correct choice of large herbivores on such lands. And there is no doubt the wild horses are the correct herbivores for wilderness lands where threatened and endangered flora exist, and where catastrophic wildfires threaten both the flora and fauna of such precious lands.

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Bring back the horses: Public lands bear the ecological brunt of livestock grazing - Horsetalk

By Debbie James

High quality big bale silage is helping a Pembrokeshire grassland farmer maximise returns from his heifer rearing contract by achieving winter growth rates on forage only.

Keith Williams reseeds all fields approximately every eight years and that, together with cutting grass when it is young, are key to producing silage that can supply all the energy and protein requirements of growing animals.

It is not rocket science, you have to plant good quality seed, you must be prepared to cut grass young and it must have a high D (digestibility) value I dont want to cut old grass that has been there for donkey's years, says Mr Williams, who farms at Haverhill Farm, Spittal, with his wife, Helen.

The couple sold their milking herd nine years ago and now rear pedigree Holstein heifer replacements for a local dairy farmer.

They sell two crops of standing silage to a neighbour and make around 950 big bales of silage a year as winter fodder for the 160 heifers which range in age from 12-23 months.

Barley is grown on contract annually to provide an opportunity for reseeding with intermediate and late heading ryegrasses with a high D value.

These varieties will wait for you for a while, but if you have grasses that head too early you are in trouble, especially when the weather is changeable, says Mr Williams.

As an experiment, a short-term ley was planted in 2018. We decided late in the year to reseed and I dont like direct re-seeding so we used a short-term seed mix, Keith explains.

That ley is performing well but to capture the quality it must be cut every four to five weeks.

Prior to first cut, 112kgs/ha of nitrogen and slurry is applied. This is followed immediately after harvesting with 90kgs/ha of N via an after-cut fertiliser product.

For the third cut, 75kg N, 25kg phosphate and 56kg potash are applied the third cut provides the bulk of the winter feed, says Mr Williams.

The first cut of big bales in 2020 was taken on April 20 cutting dates depend on the year, he doesnt have a set calendar date.

I dont look at the calendar, I look at the grass, the weather forecast and the rotation do I need to take a field out to have it fit to graze by a certain date.

Mr Williams has used the same contractor, Geoff Thomas, for 30 years.

Mowing is done at midday with a mower conditioner, when the grass sugars are at their highest, followed quickly by tedding.

The number of times a crop is tedded depends on the weather if it is warm and sunny it will only be done once but if there is more moisture it will be spread a second time.

The grass isnt chopped before it is formed into bales because cutting it unchopped has never caused a problem with fermentation and conservation.

The crop is baled within 48 hours with a Fusion baler, with six layers of wrap.

Although it costs more than wrapping with the standard four layers, Mr Williams says it results in less waste and he doesnt use an additive so this offsets the cost.

Bales are stacked on their side, because his bale handler is designed for that rather than a preference over upright stacking; the bales are stacked within hours of baling.

All bales are marked to identify which field they have been harvested from.

It gives you some interest in the winter, to see how the silage feeds out according to the conditions it was harvested in and the ley it was grown from, says Mr Williams.

Producing good quality silage results from good farming practice, including controlling moles and liming.

Mr Williams approach to growing good quality leys coupled with attention to detail at harvesting produced the winning entry in the 2020 All Wales Big Bale Silage competition, 30 years after he won the equivalent award for clamp silage.

His winning entry analysed at 33.3 per cent dry matter (DM), a D-value of 69 per cent, ME of 11 MJ/kg DM, and 16.9 per cent crude protein.

He says he has learned a great deal through his membership of the Federation of Welsh Grassland Societies (FWGS).

I have always used the same principles for making good silage and have learned all of those things through being a member of the North Pembrokeshire Grassland Society.

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Revealed the secrets of super silage at west Wales farm - Wales Farmer