Builder Confidence Steady but Signs of Future Optimism in 2025 National Association of Home Builders
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Builder Confidence Steady but Signs of Future Optimism in 2025 - National Association of Home Builders
Builder Confidence Steady but Signs of Future Optimism in 2025 National Association of Home Builders
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Builder Confidence Steady but Signs of Future Optimism in 2025 - National Association of Home Builders
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A lack of existing inventory that continues to drive buyers to new home construction, coupled with strong demand and mortgage rates below last falls cycle peak helped push builder sentiment above a key marker in March.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes climbed three points to 51 in March, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This is the highest level since July 2023 and marks the fourth consecutive monthly gain for the index. It is also the first time that the sentiment level has surpassed the breakeven point of 50 since last July.
Buyer demand remains brisk and we expect more consumers to jump off the sidelines and into the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to fall later this year, said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. But even though there is strong pent-up demand, builders continue to face several supply-side challenges, including a scarcity of buildable lots and skilled labor, and new restrictive codes that continue to increase the cost of building homes.
With the Federal Reserve expected to announce future rate cuts in the second half of 2024, lower financing costs will draw many prospective buyers into the market, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. However, as home building activity picks up, builders will likely grapple with rising material prices, particularly for lumber.
With mortgage rates below 7% since mid-December per Freddie Mac, more builders are cutting back on reducing home prices to boost sales. In March, 24% of builders reported cutting home prices, down from 36% in December 2023 and the lowest share since July 2023. However, the average price reduction in March held steady at 6% for the ninth straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives is holding firm. The share of builders offering some form of incentive in March was 60%, and this has remained between 58% and 62% since last September.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor. The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as high to very high, average or low to very low. Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three of the major HMI indices posted gains in March. The HMI index charting current sales conditions increased four points to 56, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose two points to 62 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers increased two points to 34.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 59, the Midwest gained five points to 41, the South rose four points to 50 and the West registered a five-point gain to 43.
HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at Housing Economics PLUS (formerly housingeconomics.com).
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Builder Sentiment Rises Above Breakeven Point | NAHB - National Association of Home Builders
Falling mortgage rates helped end a four-month decline in builder confidence, and recent economic data signal improving housing conditions heading into 2024.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose three points to 37 in December, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.
With mortgage rates down roughly 50 basis points over the past month, builders are reporting an uptick in traffic as some prospective buyers who previously felt priced out of the market are taking a second look, said NAHB Chairman Alicia Huey, a custom home builder and developer from Birmingham, Ala. With the nation facing a considerable housing shortage, boosting new home production is the best way to ease the affordability crisis, expand housing inventory and lower inflation.
The housing market appears to have passed peak mortgage rates for this cycle, and this should help to spur home buyer demand in the coming months, with the HMI component measuring future sales expectations up six points in December, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
Dietz added that the recent pessimism in builder confidence this fall has been somewhat counter to gains for the pace of single-family permits and starts during this time frame.
Our statistical analysis indicates that temporary and outsized differences between builder sentiment and starts occur after short-term interest rates rise dramatically, increasing the cost of land development and builder loans used by private builders, Dietz noted. In turn, higher financing costs for home builders and land developers add another headwind for housing supply in a market low on resale inventory. While the Federal Reserve is fighting inflation, state and local policymakers could also help by reducing the regulatory burdens on the cost of land development and home building, thereby allowing more attainable housing supply to the market. Looking forward, as rates moderate, this temporary difference between sentiment and construction activity will decline.
But with mortgage rates still running above 7% throughout November, per Freddie Mac data, many builders continue to reduce home prices to boost sales. In December, 36% of builders reported cutting home prices, tying the previous months high point for 2023. The average price reduction in December remained at 6%, unchanged from the previous month. Meanwhile, 60% of builders provided sales incentives of all forms in December, the same as November but down slightly from 62% in October.
Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for more than 35 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as good, fair or poor. The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as high to very high, average or low to very low. Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The HMI index gauging traffic of prospective buyers in December rose three points 24, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased six points to 45 and the component charting current sales condition held steady at 40.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased two points to 51, the Midwest fell one point to 34, the South dropped three points to 39 and the West posted a four-point decline to 31.
HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at Housing Economics PLUS (formerly housingeconomics.com).
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Builder Sentiment Rises on Falling Interest Rates - National Association of Home Builders
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Phillips is excited about the company's launch in April. He said: "We are revolutionizing the homebuilding process from the ground up. We want to empower the custom home buyer by giving them more autonomy in the building process with the specialist support of our experts."
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Media Contact: Meredith PhillipsEmail: 357763@email4pr.comPhone: 410-977-0436
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SOURCE On Your Lot Homes (OYL Homes)
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