Biden and his allies have noted that Congress granted a similar waiver to James Mattis four years ago when Trump nominated him for the same job. But that comparison is awkward at best. Mattis drew broad bipartisan support because lawmakers at the time expected that he would serve as a potential check on Trumps worst impulses, and because Mattis would have the stature to defy an illegal order if Trump gave one. For obvious reasons, members of Congress didnt quite say this out loud at the time, and those factors arent at play for Biden or Austin. Biden may yet see Austin confirmed, but hell have to expend some political capital to get it done.

Some in Bidenworld have argued that the president-elect is prioritizing experience over other factors. But Bidens hiring moves on Thursday seem to undercut those claims. Denis McDonough, who is reportedly his pick to run the Department of Veterans Affairs, is a former White House chief of staff who also served as a member of the National Security Council in the Obama years. Its unclear how that background will translate to the massive health care bureaucracy that is the V.A. (Most V.A. leaders were also veterans; McDonough is not.) Bidens announcement that Susan Rice, Obamas former national security adviser, will lead the White House Domestic Policy Council is equally puzzling. Rice is one of the most prominent foreign policy experts in Democratic circles and was once considered for secretary of state; her experience with domestic policy issues appears to be minimal at best.

And then theres Rahm Emanuel. The controversial mayor of Chicagos name keeps coming up as a potential contender for Cabinet slots, including secretary of transportation or other prominent administration roles. Emanuel, like many other Biden picks, is a familiar face from the Obama years. But he brings no apparent qualifications for running the Department of Transportation. His own handling of transit and environmental justice issues in Chicago is middling at best, and his role in covering up the Chicago Police Departments killing of Laquan McDonald in 2014 makes him radioactive for progressives and civil rights activists.

I dont want to give short shrift to the challenges Biden is facing. He could be the first Democratic president since 1885 to enter the White House without full control of Congress. The House Democratic majority hinges on fewer than a dozen seats, and any members who resign might not be replaced for months. To capture the Senate, Democrats would also need to win both of Georgias Senate seats in the runoff elections next month to secure a 50-member majority with Vice Presidentelect Kamala Harriss tie-breaking vote. This outcome isnt impossible, of course. But Biden would be foolish to assume that it will happen when building his Cabinet.

Read this article:
Biden Is Finding New and Inexplicable Ways to Screw Up His Cabinet Picks - The New Republic

When the White House welcomes a new first family it gets a thorough cleaning in the five hours allotted for the turnover. But with a global pandemic raging and an outgoing President whose orbit is rife with people shunning public health guidelines and coming down with Covid-19 this Jan. 20 is expected to include a deeper, more exhaustive cleaning, according to a White House official.

It's one of many changes expected around how the White House operates when President-elect Joe Biden takes over. His campaign has diligently modeled public health guidelines with mask wearing and social distancing even as he campaigned against outgoing President Trump, who instead held large rallies packed with people, many of whom did not wear masks.

While there are not "firm plans" for execution, the agency in charge of things, the General Services Administration, is handling what will be a "thorough disinfecting and cleansing" of every surface in the 55,000 square foot mansion.

Here's what else to expect:

In November, after at least two outbreaks of Covid-19 occurred in the White House, one affecting the first family, GSA contracted a company to regularly "mist" disinfectant cleaner throughout the interior.

Press have witnessed some of the current cleaning, which involve staff in full hazmat-looking suits misting widely used areas such as the briefing room.

These misters are now a frequent and welcome presence to those who work in the building, as science has determined the highly contagious coronavirus can linger on surfaces, as well as be passed through air.

The misters and the cleaners will have to tackle the White House's 132 rooms, which consist of 16 bedrooms, 35 bathrooms, six levels of the residence, 412 doors, 147 windows, 28 fireplaces, 8 staircases and at least three elevators.

See the article here:
Latest news on the Trump-Biden transition: Live updates - CNN

By John Baer

This is more of a political stretch than a likelihood, but modern American politics teaches us that all things are possible.

And yes, U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr., Scranton-born hometown pal and ally of President-Elect Joe Biden, says he wants to stay in the Senate. But he also says if Biden offers an administration post, hed be honored to talk about it.

So its at least worth some political fun to consider just in case being honored turns in to being hired who Gov. Tom Wolf would choose as Caseys replacement. Because thats how it works: the governor fills a Senate vacancy.

Would Wolf look to make history by naming a Black, Latino or woman? Boost a political pal who wants to be a senator? Or pick a placeholder who wont seek the job come next election?

For starters, Wolf could name himself, but that would never happen. Hes made clear his current office is his last. And Im reliably told he wants to remain in his 45-year marriage to wife Frances. Which is to say, she wouldnt like it.

Then who?

An obvious pick is Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. He ran for Senate in the 2016 Democratic primary (won by Katie McGinty) and is expected to run for Senate or governor in 2022.

Whoever Wolf would pick serves until the next general election in November 2021. The winner of that election serves out Caseys term through 2024.

But Fetterman might take a pass. He could be leaning more toward a run for governor. Still, there are Sheetz stores in the D.C. area. And certainly Attorney General Josh Shapiro, a likely 2022 gubernatorial candidate himself, would happily help Fetterman out with any move.

Or Wolf could tap state Treasurer Joe Torsella.

The Berwick-born, Ivy-educated Rhodes scholar already has a senator-like resume, and a karmic case for his selection.

Hes a former U.S. Representative to the United Nations, a former president and CEO of the National Constitution Center and a former chairman of the state Board of Education.

Torsella narrowly lost reelection as Treasurer to Republican Stacy Garrity last month in a race all but invisible compared to the presidential race.

A case could be made, with no disrespect to Garrity, that Torsellas loss was due to the state no longer having straight-party voting. It went away as part of 2019 legislation backed and signed by Gov. Wolf giving us mail-in voting.

Did that hurt down-ballot Dems? Well, in Torsellas case, the drop-off between Biden and Torsella was more than 200,000 votes. Torsella lost to Garrity by 52,500 votes. Would he have lost with straight-party voting? Maybe. Maybe not. And maybe the political fates will make his loss up to him.

Meanwhile, the state never has had a woman senator, or a Black senator, or a Latino senator. Wolf could tilt in that direction.

And if he leans to gender, you might think the aforementioned McGinty, who lost the 2016 Senate race to incumbent Republican Pat Toomey by just 1.5% of the vote, would be a logical choice. Dont. She was briefly Wolfs chief of staff. Didnt work out. No reward is in the offing.

How about University of Pennsylvania Prez Amy Gutman? Pals with Biden. Great fundraiser. And while she takes some flak for her reported $3.6 million salary, she and her husband, Columbia University Prof Michael Doyle, donated $2 million this fall to Penns nursing school. Theres speculation Biden might ask her to serve in his cabinet. There was similar speculation in 2016, if Hillary Clinton was elected.

Or Wolf could tap Pedro Rivera, his former secretary of education, now president of Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology, whos currently working on Bidens transition team.

Or Dwight Evans, a Philadelphia political force, a former long-time state House power, elected to Congress in 2016. Evans, who is Black, was among the first name Democrats to endorse then-little-known Wolf for governor in 2014.

Of course, many others could be considered. And, as noted, the likelihood of the need arising is, at best, slim.

Yet its still 2020. So almost any political musing enters the realm of the possible.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

See the rest here:
If Bob Casey joins the Biden cabinet, who replaces him in the Senate? | Opinion - lehighvalleylive.com

United States Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship

*The views expressed here are my own and not those of the American Action Forum. I thank Thomas Wade for his insight and assistance.

Chairman Rubio, Ranking Member Cardin, and members of the Committee, thank you for the privilege of appearing today to share my views at this hearing titled Small Business in Crisis: The 2020 Paycheck Protection Program and its Future. I wish to make three main points:

The Status of the Paycheck Protection Program

Title IV of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, signed into law on March 27, 2020, set aside $349 billion for the relief of small businesses, to be administered by the SSBA in the form of the P PPPP[1]. The SBA commenced the PPP on April 3, 2020, and closed the program on April 16, 2020, on the exhaustion of the $349 billion appropriated by Congress. Congress later provided an additional $310 billion for the PPP in H.R. 266, the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act.[2] This supplement brought the total funds available to the SBA and the PPP to $659 billion.

Per the original drafting of the CARES Act, the PPP program was due to expire at midnight on June 30 regardless of funds remaining. Just hours before the expiration of the program, Congress authorized an extension through August 8. This date passed without a second extension to the program, with the result that the SBA ceased taking applications to the program.

As a result, the PPP remains frozen in time as of August 8. As of that date, the SBA has disbursed $525 billion of the $659 billion so far appropriated by Congress to this program, with $134 billion, or 20 percent of PPP funds remaining available to the program.[3] Figures A through D (below) illustrate the total number and value of PPP loans disbursed to date in addition to the average value of a PPP loan and the total number of SBA-approved lenders across the entire life of the program. All data in Figures A through G come from the SBA website, as interpolated by the American Action Forum.[4]

Figure A

Figure B

Figure C

Figure D

The SBA also made available data on the top 15 lenders by value disbursed, a breakdown of all lenders in the program by asset size, and a breakdown by loan size, as can be seen in Figures E through G below.

Figure E

Figure F

Figure G

Strengths of the Paycheck Protection Program

In June I noted in my writings that the PPP has been an enormous success; nothing has occurred since that time to change my opinion.[5] The data presented above are testament to what the SBA and Treasury have achieved in coordination with our nations banks distributing $525 billion in financial assistance to small businesses in a time of crisis. In the first two weeks of April and the first two weeks of May, the PPP distributed a combined $513 billion, a testament to hard work at the SBA, which is used to handling fractions of this volume. The $525 billion distributed stands in stark relief to emergency aid to companies as provided by the Federal Reserves s13(3) emergency loan facilities, including the Main Street Lending Program, which to date has provided about $2 billion of the $600 billion it is authorized to back.[6] The total $669 billion authorized by Congress represents the single-largest component of the policy response to COVID-19 and alone is not far short of the estimated $840 billion cost of the 2009 Recovery Act.[7]

Injecting billions of dollars into a supply and therefore liquidity shock economic environment could be deemed a success in and of itself. The PPP went further, however, and recent research by Hubbard and Strain shows that the PPP substantially increased the employment, financial health, and survival of small businesses.[8]

Figure C shows that across the entire life of the PPP the average dollar size of each loan only decreased. This decline means that new loans were steadily smaller; the average loan size fell from $239,00 in the first week to $100,000 by the end of the program. The PPP is well beyond serving only big firms andreached increasingly smaller ventures. At the end of the program, loans under $50,000 represented 69 percent of total PPP loans, and 12 percent by value. Loans over $5 million represent less than 1 percent of total PPP loans, and only 6 percent by value. These proportions remained largely unchanged toward the end of the program.

Figure E demonstrates the vital role of our nations banks in providing the loans backed by the PPP and the SBA. While credit is of course due to JP Morgan Chase and the other financial titans that provided such a significant percentage of total PPP authority, the list of top 15 lenders demonstrates a considerable effort by smaller and regional banks, demonstrating that the program was created to engage the banking industry as a whole.

Weaknesses of the Paycheck Protection Program

Program Structure

The PPP was created as a forgivable loan program where loans effectively acted as grants. The SBA delegated significant authority to banks to allow borrowers to borrow up to 2.5 times their average monthly payroll costs, capped at $10 million.[9] This fairly unique structure capitalized on existing relationships between small businesses and their lenders and the capital available within the banking system to disburse large amounts of funds very quickly. In this the PPP succeeded. Initial criticisms of the programs structure focused on the unusual necessity for the involvement of the banking industry and the incentives that would be required. The PPP was also criticized for the initial $349 billion being too low, a problem that was corrected.

It is tempting to see the remaining $134 billion unused by the PPP as a failing or a weakness, and indeed some commentators attempted to pin the blame on confusing program terms or a lack of clarity on forgiveness (see below). This assertion is refuted somewhat by the staggering news from the U.S. Census Bureau that nearly three-quarters of all small businesses in the United States received a PPP loan.[10] One of the most common criticisms of the PPP is that the program limited aid to a single application, and thus that the program was clearly geared toward a much shorter lockdown period. While this made sense at the time (particularly when the program was only authorized for $349 billion), nine months into a pandemic it is likely that businesses will require a second loan or source of support. This simple change would likely exhaust remaining PPP funds in short order.

If Congress has an appetite for more significant restructuring, the most effective reform could be to change the PPPs focus from payroll to revenue. While a useful goal, payroll is not the most reflective metric of the costs and challenges small businesses face. A revenue-replacement program would capture the universe of expenses facing small businesses and would be easier to certify. Such a program would likely be expensive, however, with Strain and Hubbard estimating that replacing 80 percent of revenue for 12 weeks for eligible service-sector businesses would cost $1.2 trillion[11].

Allegations of Fraud and Inappropriate Recipients

In the first two weeks of April, publicly traded companies received $365 million in PPP loans, leading to considerable condemnatory media coverage.[12] Some of these recipients, including Shake Shack and the L.A. Lakers, subsequently chose to return the proceeds. It is worth noting that none of these firms had acted inappropriately, and any funds they might have received would have aided them in retaining payroll, the entire point to this program. Nonetheless, the SBA responded to these criticisms by indicating that any business with access to capital markets would be unlikely to make a good-faith certification that it was in need of aid, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin committed to a review of every loan provided in excess of $2 million. Figure C above demonstrates that PPP loans only decreased in size, targeting increasingly smaller businesses.

In addition to singling out individual recipients of aid, the PPP has been criticized for not targeting industries most impacted by COVID-19, states most impacted by COVID-19, or minority groups disproportionately impacted by COVID-19.[13] The PPP as drafted was not designed to discriminate on any of these factors. That the program still had funds available when the PPP expired indicates that less deserving recipients did not prevent more deserving recipients from obtaining aid, however those terms are defined. Some potential recipients of aid may have been prevented from obtaining a PPP loan by virtue of a lack of relationships with banks and lenders, however.

The SBA inspector generals office reported that it found tens of thousands of PPP loans disbursed for borrowers in amounts that exceeded what the borrower could claim.[14] In order to expedite the disbursement of aid to small businesses, the CARES Act removed usual bank requirements to validate and verify loan recipients (with the exception of anti-money laundering and financing of terrorism checks). Fraud in any government program is possible, doubly so when some of the safety rails are removed. That tens of thousands of cases of PPP fraud is, at maximum, two percent of all PPP loans provided should be considered a success. Again, if the program is functioning exactly as intended, it is difficult to brand this rate of fraud a failure although if the PPP is reinstated, Treasury and the SBA can and should do more to reinforce the decision to hold harmless banks involved in borrower fraud lest banks stop offering PPP loans.

Administration

The unprecedented size of the relief and speed at which aid needed to be deployed to save jobs would be a challenge for even the largest agency. But the SBA is tiny by the standards of other cabinet agencies. It had less than 4,000 full-time equivalent employees in fiscal year (FY) 2019; in comparison, the Department of Commerce had about 52,000 for the same year, according to its FY 2020 budget request.[15] [16]

The SBAs capacity presented a major potential implementation challenge. Across its lending platforms, SBA approved $28.2 billion in loans in FY 2019 8 percent of what it is being asked to distribute in short order[17]. In order to overcome these challenges, the process will have to be streamlined to an extraordinary degree. In addition, the agencys budget request for 2020 was $820 million, of which less than half would support direct-lending assistance.[18] $349 billion effectively equals roughly one thousand times the usual annual guaranty amount, delivered in only two months.

The SBA and Treasurys administrative challenges were not simply limited to personnel, and the PPP called attention to ageing government and agency IT systems, seen by Strain and Hubbard as the key factor preventing the U.S. government from having lent directly to small businesses themselves[19].

Forgiveness, Verification, and Validation

In subsequent months, media attention and the force of criticism of the PPP has shifted to the final piece of the PPP term sheet: forgiveness. Initial SBA and Treasury information was extremely thin on the ground regarding the eventual forgiveness of PPP loans, the last part of the process and the step that turns PPP loans effectively into grants.

Subsequent FAQ releases have done some but not enough to explicate the process of forgiveness and leave lenders lost as to the process.[20] Confusion around the terms of the PPP was not (and is not) limited to the banks involved in the program, with some studies noting that 3 in 4 PPP borrowers were confused by loan terms.[21]

As noted above, as drafted, the CARES Act did not provide sufficient guidance on how the information flowing from borrower to lender to SBA should be verified and validated. A strict interpretation of the Act implied that significant portions of the usual underwriting process should be taken on good faith, with what little testing that the Act requires (for instance, that a business seeking relief be in operation on February 15, 2020) placed the burden of verification on lenders. This, combined with confusion about the forgiveness regime, may have made many lenders reluctant to participate in the program.[22]

Conclusions

The PPP was the single-largest source of support for the economy for the month of April. In that same month the economy shed 20 million jobs. It is painful to imagine how much worse this may have been without the prompt intervention of the SBA, although one MIT paper estimates that as of the first week of June the PPP had saved 2.3 million jobs.[23] It speaks volumes, to my mind, that one of the most pressing criticisms of the PPP was that it only allowed for businesses to receive one loan. How significant can all other criticisms of the PPP be if its biggest flaw is preventing businesses from accessing it again?

It does not seem a stretch to say both that the PPP has done much good and that, given the length of COVID-19 lockdowns, it may be time to reinstate and refund the program. If Congress does so without making any program changes this would still likely be an enormous success. If the appetite for change exists, I would strongly recommend that Congress consider a revenue rather than payroll-retention structure and allow for multiple applications as the pandemic continues. In addition, Treasury and the SBA must make the terms and forgiveness of PPP loans as clear as possible while improving program oversight and resources at both agencies.

Thank you, and I look forward to your questions.

[1] https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/press/cares-act-title-iv-summary

[2] https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/266

[3] https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/tracker-paycheck-protection-program-loans/

[4] https://www.americanactionforum.org/research/tracker-paycheck-protection-program-loans/

[5] https://www.americanactionforum.org/daily-dish/fixing-the-ppp/

[6] https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/assessing-financial-support-for-businesses-during-the-pandemic-the-state-of-play/

[7] https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/may/which-bigger-2009-recovery-act-fdr-new-deal

[8] http://ftp.iza.org/dp13808.pdf

[9] https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/financial-services-provisions-in-the-coronavirus-aid-relief-and-economic-security-cares-act-final-version/

[10] https://portal.census.gov/pulse/data/

[11] http://ftp.iza.org/dp13808.pdf

[12] https://apnews.com/article/6c5942eec36cc43b25ad5df5afebcfbd

[13] https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2020/08/did-the-paycheck-protection-program-work-the-way-it-was-supposed-to

[14] https://www.sba.gov/about-sba/oversight-advocacy/office-inspector-general

[15] https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/SBA_FY_2019_AFR-508.pdf

[16] https://www.commerce.gov/sites/default/files/2019-03/FY_2020_DOC_BiB-032019.pdf

[17] https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2019-12/SBA_FY_2019_AFR-508.pdf

[18] https://www.sba.gov/sites/default/files/2019-04/SBA%20FY%202020%20Congressional%20Justification_final%20508%20%204%2023%202019.pdf

[19] http://ftp.iza.org/dp13808.pdf

[20] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/business/small-business-ppp-loans-forgiveness.html

[21] https://www.bankingdive.com/news/borrowers-paycheck-protection-program-confusion-loan-terms/578577/

[22] https://prospect.org/coronavirus/unsanitized-why-banks-dont-want-to-help-small-businesses/

[23] http://economics.mit.edu/files/20094

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Testimony on: Small Business in Crisis: The 2020 Paycheck Protection Program and Its Future - American Action Forum

President-elect Joe Bidens selection of a running mate was front-page news with Kamala Harris becoming the first Black woman and first South Asian to hold the job. Her boss, Joe Biden, also gained stature when he was vice president for President Obama, with an unusually active role that far exceeded what was accomplished by previous vice presidents. In fact, the evolution of the vice presidency, in the Constitution and in practice, is one of the most fascinating, bizarre elements of the U.S. government.

On Dec. 19, 1793, Vice President John Adams wrote to his wife, Abigail, my Country has in its Wisdom contrived for me, the most insignificant Office that ever the Invention of Man contrived or his Imagination conceived. Most vice presidents in American history have agreed with Adams assessment of the No. 2 office in the country. Despite being a heartbeat away from the presidency, the office of the vice president has often been relegated to obsolescence.

The original Constitution mentioned the vice president three times. Article II, Section 1 specifies that the vice president shall hold a term of four years and the top two candidates will be elected president and vice president. The end of Section 1 states that the vice president takes over the responsibilities of the president should the president be removed from office by death or resignation. Finally, Article II, Section 4 states that the vice president can be removed from office by impeachment.

In 1789, the first federal Congress certified the votes of the first presidential election. George Washington received 69 votes, a unanimous vote from all electors. John Adams was the clear second choice with 34 votes. John Jay came in third with nine votes. But the Constitution was silent about the relationship between the president and the vice president.

President Washington initially solicited Adams advice, especially as Washington established a social calendar and customs. But Adams and Washington never had a particularly warm relationship and the president didnt invite the vice president to join a single Cabinet meeting, establishing a precedent that held for almost two centuries.

The relationship between the president and vice president didnt improve during the second administration. In 1796, John Adams and Thomas Jefferson competed in the presidential election. Adams won with 71 electoral votes to Jeffersons 68 electoral votes. Under the terms of Article II, Jeffersons second-place finish bagged him the vice presidency. As political rivals and opponents, Adams naturally didnt include Jefferson in his Cabinet meetings either.

This odd arrangement came to a head during the next election. Each party selected two candidates, one for president and one for vice president in theory, but they were all listed on the same ballot. In the election of 1800, President John Adams came in third with 65 votes, but Democratic-Republican candidates Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr tied with 73 apiece. The election then went to the House of Representatives, and Jefferson fully expected Burr to step aside. When Burr eagerly competed for the presidency, the House cast 36 ballots before finally selecting Jefferson as the third president of the United States. Jefferson never trusted Burr again and replaced him after the first term.

Congress quickly realized that it needed a more predictable process for selecting presidential and vice presidential candidates to avoid the awkward electoral tie that had occurred between Burr and Jefferson. In December 1803, Congress passed the 12th Amendment, which specified that electors would cast separate votes for president and vice presidential candidates in elections going forward.

Despite the revisions contained in the 12th Amendment, there was still a pretty sizable hole in the vice presidential selection process. When Andrew Johnson assumed the presidency after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, there was no established process to select Johnsons replacement, so the vice presidency was left vacant for three years and 323 days. A new vice president didnt fill the office until after the election of 1868.

The position was so inconsequential that Johnson was not the last president to serve without a vice president, nor was the vacancy the longest! On April 4, 1841, John Tyler took over the presidency when William Henry Harrison died unexpectedly in office. The vice president remained open for three years and 334 days, until the election of 1844. President John F. Kennedys death and Lyndon B. Johnsons assumption of the presidency again emphasized the need for a clear process to select a new vice president, as LBJ didnt have a vice president for one year and 59 days.

The 25th Amendment, passed by Congress in July 1965 and ratified in February 1967, finally addressed this situation by declaring that Whenever there is a vacancy in the office of the Vice President, the President shall nominate a Vice President who shall take office upon confirmation by a majority vote of both Houses of Congress.

Even after the vice president received more constitutional definition, most presidents have kept their vice presidents at arms length. President Franklin D. Roosevelt shared so little information and responsibility with Harry S. Truman that Truman didnt learn of the existence of the atomic bomb until after Roosevelt died in 1945. In 1960, when reporters asked President Dwight D. Eisenhower to list Vice President Richard Nixons major contributions, Eisenhower replied, Well, if you give me a week I might think of one.

Since the passage of the 12th Amendment, presidents mostly selected candidates that served an Electoral College purpose. Only recently have presidential candidates considered who might make the best governing partner. For example, Ronald Reagan selected Bush for electoral reasons, and while Bush proved to be an effective and persistent lieutenant, the relationship between the first and second families remained frosty. Reagan only offered a tepid endorsement of Bushs candidacy and then refused to be seen with the president when Bush was running for re-election. President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore reportedly worked well together during Clintons first term, but the Monica Lewinsky scandal drove a wedge between the two.

Dick Cheney started a new chapter in vice presidential history by operating with more authority than any vice president before him. Bush selected Cheney as a veteran politician to provide seasoned, but blunt advice. They worked well together because Cheney had no plans to run for president himself and always deferred to the president. At the same time, he had more influence with the president than anyone else and was frequently characterized as the man behind the curtain pulling the strings. In Bushs second term, however, the relationship changed as Bush increasingly consulted with Condoleezza Rice and fired Donald Rumsfeld (Cheneys mentor). By the time they left office, they disagreed on more issues than they agreed.

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joseph Biden might be the first president and vice president that were actually friends. Before accepting the position, Biden demanded a more substantive role than the one most vice presidents had enjoyed. Obama promised that he would be the last person in the room and a partner on critical foreign policy and domestic issues. The president kept his word. Biden frequently traveled abroad on behalf of the administration and managed the economic reconstruction efforts in the wake of the 2008 recession. Their warm relationship inspired countless memes and articles about their bromance and by the end of Obamas term, they both referred to each other as family.

All evidence suggests that President-elect Bidens relationship with Obama served as one of the high-water marks of his decades-long public service career, and he seeks to emulate this relationship with his own vice president selection. He has promised Vice President-elect Harris the same access Obama provided to him she will be the last person in the room before every big decision. If so, she will inherit a vice presidency that has evolved significantly from the one created by the Constitution in 1787.

Excerpt from:
The Strange History of the Office of the Vice President - Governing

This is more of a political stretch than a likelihood, but modern American politics teaches us that all things are possible.

And, yes, U.S. Senator Bob Casey Jr., Scranton-born hometown pal and ally of President-Elect Joe Biden, says he wants to stay in the Senate. But he also says if Biden offers an administration post, hed be honored to talk about it.

So, its at least worth some political fun to consider -- just in case being honored turns in to being hired -- who Gov. Tom Wolf would choose as Caseys replacement. Because thats how it works: the governor fills a Senate vacancy.

Would Wolf look to make history by naming a Black, Latino or woman? Boost a political pal who wants to be a Senator? Or pick a placeholder who wont seek the job come next election?

For starters, Wolf could name himself, but that would never happen. Hes made clear his current office is his last. And, Im reliably told, he wants to remain in his 45-year marriage to wife Frances. Which is to say, she wouldnt like it.

Then who?

An obvious pick is Lt. Gov. John Fetterman. He ran for Senate in the 2016 Democratic primary (won by Katie McGinty) and is expected to run for Senate or governor in 2022.

Whoever Wolf would pick serves until the next General Election, November 2021; and if he or she runs and wins, serves out Caseys term through 2024.

But Fetterman might take a pass. He could be leaning more toward a run for governor. Still, there are Sheetz stores in the D.C. area. And certainly Atty. Gen. Josh Shapiro, a likely 2022 gubernatorial candidate himself, would happily help Fetterman out with any move.

Or Wolf could tap state Treasurer Joe Torsella.

The Berwick-born, Ivy-educated Rhodes Scholar already has a Senator-like resume, and a karmic case for his selection.

Hes a former U.S. Representative to the United Nations, a former president and CEO of the National Constitution Center and a former chairman of the state Board of Education.

Torsella narrowly lost reelection as Treasurer to Republican Stacy Garrity last month in a race all but invisible compared to the presidential race.

A case could be made, with no disrespect to Garrity, that Torsellas loss was due to the state no longer having straight-party voting. It went away as part of 2019 legislation backed and signed by Gov. Wolf giving us mail-in voting.

Did that hurt down-ballot Dems? Well, in Torsellas case, the drop-off between Biden and Torsella was more than 200,000 votes. Torsella lost to Garrity by 52,500 votes. Would he have lost with straight-party voting? Maybe. Maybe not. And maybe the political fates will make his loss up to him.

Meanwhile, the state never has had a woman senator, or a Black senator, or a Latino senator. Wolf could tilt in that direction.

And if he leans to gender, you might think the aforementioned McGinty, who lost the 2016 Senate race to incumbent Republican Pat Toomey by just 1.5% of the vote, would be a logical choice. Dont. She was briefly Wolfs chief of staff. Didnt work out. No reward is in the offing.

How about University of Pennsylvania Prez Amy Gutman? Pals with Biden. Great fundraiser. And while she takes some flak for her reported $3.6 million salary, she and her husband, Columbia University Prof Michael Doyle, donated $2 million this fall to Penns nursing school. Theres speculation Biden might ask her to serve in his cabinet. There was similar speculation in 2016, if Hillary Clinton was elected.

Or Wolf could tap Pedro Rivera, his former secretary of education, now president of Thaddeus Stevens College of Technology, whos currently working on Bidens transition team.

Or, Dwight Evans, a Philadelphia political force, a former long-time state House power, elected to Congress in 2016. Evans, who is Black, was among the first name Democrats to endorse then-little-known Wolf for governor in 2014.

Of course, many others could be considered. And, as noted, the likelihood of the need arising is, at best, slim.

Yet its still 2020. So, almost any political musing enters the realm of the possible.

John Baer may be reached at baer.columnist@gmail.com

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If Joe Biden wants Pa. Sen. Bob Casey in his administration, who does the governor pick to replace him? | Joh - pennlive.com

While Inslee has said many times he plans to serve his full term as governor, many think it would be hard for him to turn down a job serving under a new Democratic president especially one that involves combating climate change, one of Inslees core issues.

While hes stated that he loves Washington, wants to be near his grandchildren,and feels he has unfinished work here, I believe his core concerns around the environment and his desire to make an impact on the largest stage possible would make a cabinet post hard to turn down, political science professor Vernon Johnson wrote in an email. Johnson directs the Ralph Munro Center for Civic Education at Western Washington University.

Biden announced last week that former Secretary of State John Kerry would serve as a special presidential envoy on climate, which will involve sitting on the National Security Council. But there are other climate-focused jobs Biden has yet to fill.

Should Inslee accept a federal job, it would set off a chain reaction in Washington state politics, starting with a temporary replacement followed by a field of people jockeying to replace Inslee permanently.

The state constitution is clear: Should Washingtons governor vacate his office in the middle of his term, the lieutenant governor takes over.

Starting in January, that will be U.S. Rep. Denny Heck, D-Olympia, who recently won election to the lieutenant governors office. Heck, 68, is retiring from Congress at the end of this year.

This arrangement would be a temporary one, however. A vacancy in the governors office would trigger a special election to decide who will replace Inslee on a more permanent basis. Heck has said he isnt interested in the job long term and would return to the post of lieutenant governor after a permanent replacement is elected.

If Inslee quits before mid-May, when candidates in Washington state begin filing torun for office, the special election to replace him would be held in November 2021. If he resigns after candidate filing week begins in May, the timing of the special election is less clear, said Kylee Zabel, a spokesperson for WashingtonsOffice of theSecretary of State.Zabel saidthe secretary of statesoffice and the state attorney general are conferring on that hypothetical scenario right now.

Whenever the special election occurs, whoeverwins would serve the remainder of Inslees four-year term, which runs through January 2025.

Aseem Prakash, a political science professor at the University of Washington, said the selection of Inslee for a cabinet post or cabinet-level roleis within the realm of possibility.

Prakash, the founding director of the UWs Center for Environmental Politics, said he thinks EPA administrator or energy secretary couldbe afitfor Inslee, should he be tapped for a federal job.Prakash said others have started to emerge as favorites for the Interiordepartment, including U.S. Rep. Deb Haaland of New Mexico, whowould be the first Native American cabinet secretaryif she is selected.

Biden is facing several different pressures as he chooses his cabinet, Prakash said.

I think the left is putting pressure on him, and theyre giving two kinds of signals, Prakash said. One is that you need someone who is totally committed to a Green New Deal. And, secondly, they want someone who is representing the diversity of the Democratic coalition.

Inslee, who is white, wouldnt contribute to the diversity of Bidens cabinet. But unlike some other picks, he is relatively noncontroversial and may have less difficulty getting confirmed by the U.S. Senate, Prakash said. The Senate may very well remain in Republican hands for the next two years, pending the results of two Jan. 5 runoff elections in Georgia.

As far as Inslee saying he wont take a federal cabinet job, Prakash, too, is skeptical.

He said Inslee made his federal ambitions clear last year during his climate-focused run for president.

Everybody knows that Inslee is interested, Prakash said. Everybody acts coy and shy and says, I wont do it. But they will.

There is no shortage of interest. In fact, Inslees decision to run for a third term put many of his fellow Democratic politicians ambitions on hold.

During Inslees short-lived run for president last year, several people said they were interested in succeeding him as governor. Chief among them were state Attorney General Bob Ferguson,Public Lands Commissioner Hilary Franzand King County Executive Dow Constantine.

Each decided not to run after Inslee dropped out of the presidential race and said he would seek a third term instead. At the same time, all three Democrats said they would be interested in running for governor should the position become open in 2021.

On the Republican side, no one has been as forthright in expressing interest. But GOP politicians who are commonly discussed as possibilities include state House Minority LeaderRep. J.T. Wilcox, R-Yelm; Pierce County Executive Bruce Dammeier; and Kim Wyman, Washingtons secretary of state.

Further down the ballot, others had expressed interest in becoming attorney general, should Ferguson run for governor, as well as succeeding Franz in her position managing the states public lands. Inslees reelection bid put the brakes on their aspirations, too.

For that reason, Prakash said, I dont think the local politicians will mourn if Inslee takes a job in Washington, D.C.

Right now, Everyone is stuck, Prakash said. If Inslee goes to Washington, D.C., by contrast, Everybody would move up.

This month, Constantine announced he is running for reelection as county executive. But when asked if that means hes no longer interested in the governorship if it becomes available, he didnt rule out the possibility.

Instead, Constantine sent by text message a list of all the things he wants to tackle in another term leading King County, including ending chronic homelessness and remaking the criminal legal system.

Any other bridges I will cross if and when I come to them, Constantine wrote.

This story has been updated to include more information about possible candidates forgovernor should a vacancy arise.

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What happens if WA Gov. Jay Inslee takes a job in Biden's cabinet - KXLY Spokane

Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr (R) is playing it close-to-the-vest when it comes to announcing Maryland Department of Health Secretary Robert R. Nealls replacement.

Nealls retirement goes into effect on Tuesday, and as the clock ticked closer to midnight, no one seemed to know when the announcement will come or who will win the appointment: Not representatives from House Speaker Adrienne A. Jones (D-Baltimore County) and Senate President Bill Fergusons (D-Baltimore City) offices, nor Senate Executive Nominations Committee leaders, who will be tasked with confirming or denying Hogans appointee.

Totally a blank on all those issues, Executive Nominations Chairman Ronald N. Young (D-Frederick) said Monday.

And the not-knowing transcends party lines: Republican leadership in the General Assembly has no clue either.

Havent heard a thing, said House Minority Leader Nicholaus R. Kipke (R-Anne Arundel).

In the midst of a pandemic, which worsens as days go on, Neall, a lifer in Marylands political scene, gave Hogan and his fellow cabinet members three-weeks notice of his departure.

We werent ready to announce this yet today, but I can confirm we just had an emergency cabinet meeting this afternoon where Secretary Bobby Neall, who has been a long-time friend for decades and whos done an incredible job leading a wonderful team of people throughout this crisis, he gave us notice that hes leaving the administration, said Gov. Lawrence J. Hogan Jr (R) at the end of a news conference in mid-November.

Nealls reasoning? Hes tired.

These last three years, though trying, have been very rewarding and I simply do not have the strength and vitality to continue, he told the Joint COVD-19 Response Legislative Workgroup in November. You have to know when to say when.

Neall is tapping out after more than 40 years as a public servant, representing Anne Arundel County in the state House and Senate, as county executive, and everything in between, flip-flopping his party affiliation along the way.

Hes also not the first to step down from the Department of Health since the pandemic reached the state 10 months ago.

Former Deputy Secretary of Public Health Services Fran Phillips announced her retirement in late July, and Gregg Todd, the former deputy secretary of operations, accepted a position as controller for Ingraham County, Mich., over the summer.

Philips vacancy was filled by Acting Deputy Secretary Dr. Jinlene Chan, and Todd was replaced by Atif T. Chaudhry.

But the name of Nealls replacement remains a mystery to political heavy-hitters, some of whom think his shoes will be difficult to fill.

No, I have to say the governor doesnt call me for advice and I think Bobby Neall will be hard to replace, said Senate Health, Education and Environmental Affairs Committee Chairman Paul G. Pinsky (D-Prince Georges).

Sen. Clarence K. Lam (D-Howard and Baltimore County), a public health doctor, said the piece thats lost in Nealls departure is the amount of respect he has garnered from having been around the block quite a while.

I think its going to be a real challenge to find a replacement for him that carries that gravitas, Lam said in a phone interview Monday.

Hogan spokesman Michael Ricci told Maryland Matters in an email that he expects an update on Nealls replacement as early as Tuesday.

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Hogan Plays It Close to the Vest as Neall's Retirement Looms - Josh Kurtz

Kevin Wagner| Palm Beach Post

Question:Who replaces the Vice President if he or she dies?

Answer:This was oneissue that the drafters of the Constitution missed because there was no procedure for replacing a sitting Vice President. As a result, for much of our nations history, the death, removalor promotion of the Vice President to the Presidency resulted in a vacancy in the office of the Vice President until the next election.

Indeed, the office of Vice President has been vacant for extended periods over the course of U.S. history. When Harry S Truman ascended to the Presidency after the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1945, the office of Vice President remained vacant for over three years until the election of 1948.

When added together, the U.S. has been without a Vice President for roughly 37 years. Americans may not have noticed, because until more recent years, the job itself has not been very memorable. As the first Vice President, John Adams, put it: "My country has in its wisdom contrived for me the most insignificant office that ever the invention of man contrived or his imagination conceived."

The problem was largely solved by the adoption of the 25th Amendment in 1967, which allows the President to nominate a replacement Vice President, but requires the choice to be confirmed by a majority vote in both chambersof Congress.

We saw the first application of this amendment in 1973, when Richard M. Nixon nominated Gerald R. Ford, who was confirmed by Congress to the Vice Presidency after the resignation of then-Vice President Spiro T. Agnew. Ford then ascended to the Presidency in 1974, after the resignation of President Nixon. This allowed President Ford to use the new amendment to select Nelson Rockefeller as Vice President. Interestingly, this resulted in an administration where neither the President nor the Vice President were actually elected to either office.

Question:Can the Senate block President Joe Bidens Cabinet choices?

Answer:Presidents get to fill thousands of jobs when they assume office, but the most focus is on the nominations of Cabinet Secretaries, like the Defense Secretary or the Attorney General. These are influential jobs, as these individuals make policy decisions and run government departments with substantial powers.

Each of the Presidents Cabinet nominations must be approved by the Senate. So, in theory, yes, the Senate could block or reject any nominee. However, Presidents are often given some deference in building their administration, so a partisan no vote is not automatic.

Further, a change to a Senate rule in 2013 prevents confirmation votes for Cabinet Secretaries from being blocked by the filibuster. Previously, a controversial nominee would require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. However, that rule was changed about seven years ago so that votes on executive branch nominations and federal judicial appointments cannot be filibustered.

The new rule has worked well for Republicans in confirming an almost unprecedented number of judges over the last four years, often on close votes, but it will also make it easier for Biden to confirm his Cabinet.

Kevin Wagner is a noted constitutional scholar, and political science professor at Florida Atlantic University. The answers provided do not necessarily represent the views of the university.

The professor wants to hear from you. Keep in mind that no question is too basic; but it can be too partisan. So if you have a question about how American government and politics works, send us an email at rchristie@pbpost.com.

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The Civics Project: Replacing a vice president was not addressed in the original US Constitution - Palm Beach Post

The President-elect says he wants a government as diverse as America when he enters the White House. Here are some of his Executive Branch picks. USA TODAY

WASHINGTON In January 2017, Betsy DeVos,President Donald Trumps nominee for education secretary, told lawmakers at her confirmation hearing that the threat of grizzly bears in Wyoming justified the national push to equip schools with guns. She was responding to a question from Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., whod made gun control a priority afterchildren in his state were massacred in 2012 at Sandy Hook Elementary School.

DeVos gaffe, which garnered a slew of memes and a spoof on Saturday Night Live,became a metaphorfor her tenure as education secretary.It also contributed to her status as the most unpopular member of Trumps already-controversial Cabinet. DeVos won confirmation, thanks to Vice President Mike Pences tiebreaking vote.

DeVos, a conservative billionaire philanthropist, advocated for school choice. In her view, public education money should follow students to whatever learning model their parents prefer whether its a traditional public school, a charter school, a private school or a home school.

Overall, DeVos didnt accomplish much of her school choice agenda. Her hallmark education freedom campaign, which sought to create a national private school voucher program, didnt come to fruition. Congress repeatedly killed that proposal, which in its latest iteration sought to allocate $5 billion toward tax credit scholarships for private school.

If we fast-forward 10 years and look back at this period, were not going to see much, said Dale Chu, a senior visiting fellow at the Fordham Institute, a right-leaning education think tank.

DeVos did convince Congress to expand 529 plans, enabling the state-sponsored college savings accounts to cover private school tuition. She got lawmakers to reauthorize a program providing private school vouchers to students in Washington.

She has really tried to make the case that as education secretary, her job is to work with schools of all stripes, said Lindsey Burke, who directs the Center for Education Policy at the Heritage Foundation, a right-leaning think tank. Public education means education of the public and for the public not just traditional public education.

Teachersunions and civil rights groups, including the NAACP, had a different take.

She came into that position with one purpose in mind: to destroy public education, said Becky Pringle, president of the National Education Association, noting public schools enroll 90% of the countrys schoolchildren.

DeVos gained traction in her efforts to reverse a suite of policies from President Barack Obamas administration that she said had given the federal government an outsize role in education. Many of those policies pertained to civil rights.

She axed guidelines meant to reduce racial disparities in student discipline rates, arguing they made campuses less safe. She rescinded regulations requiring schools to provide facilities accommodating transgender students, sayingshe wanted toreduce federal "overreach" in schools.

Some of DeVos most concrete policy changes, experts suggested, concerned Title IX, the federal law protecting people from sex-based discrimination in education. She revoked Obama-era guidance that she said negated the due process rights of college students accused of sexual assault.This year, DeVos raised the bar to prove claims of sexual misconduct in schools. She argued the procedures enacted in May would tackle the tragic rise of sexual misconduct complaints in our nation's K-12 campuses.

How DeVos' policy works at some colleges: Hearings are traumatic for both sides

U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos hosted a listening session in 2018 on the impact of the department's Title IX sexual assault guidance on students and families and institutions.(Photo: Jasper Colt, USA TODAY Network)

President-elect Joe Biden said he plans to scrap those changes, though DeVos college regulations were backed by federal court rulings.

The big question is: How long does it take them to put a replacement together? said Terry Hartle, the senior vice president for the American Council on Education, a lobbying group for the industry.

The Biden administration could plan simply to cut the rules and come up with a replacement later, he said. Or it could repeal them and replace them immediately with a new set of regulations. Either way, those rules would have to be made available to the public for review before they are made official.

The DeVos regulations went into effect in August. Before a university can take any form of punitive action in response to potential sexual misconduct, officials need a formal complaint. Not all survivors of sexual assault are ready for formal complaints and the investigations and cross-examinations they require.

In normal times, changing a colleges process of handling sexual misconduct complaints would be a massive undertaking, said Jody Shipper, a former university administrator and an adviser to colleges onTitle IX.

Many institutions are hurting financially and struggling to respond to the changes in operations caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Some have started furloughing or laying off employees, which means they may lack ready hands to overhaul sexual misconduct rules.

Shipper said she has seen several new Title IX policies that have gaps or mistakes.

Its clear people scrambled, Shipper said.

Some will certainly see DeVos as a defender against governmental overreach. On the college level, she rolled back several federal rules meant to protect students who borrowed federal money to pay for their education.

To Steve Gunderson,CEO of a trade group of for-profit colleges, DeVos department reversed policies that unfairly targeted the members of his organization.

One of those unfair rules, he said, was the Obama administrations push to limit federal funding to colleges whose programs provided gainful employment. That rule was meant to protect students from wasting time and money on shoddy programs that dont lead to jobs. Gunderson argued it was used to target for-profit institutions.

Gunderson said information published by the Education Department, such as expanded details about how much students pay for a program and earn in their lifetime after completing it, should be enough to help them choose successful programs.

I think theres a growing belief that transparency of data and common metrics is far better in higher education than a whole set of rules and regulations, Gunderson said.

DeVos department denied many requests from student loan borrowers who said their college failed to provide them an adequate educationor forgave only partial amounts of what borrowers sought. Borrowers sued the department for the inaction, and theyve won some cases.

Under DeVos, the federal government even rolled back rules for accreditation, the dry and arcane process of approving which universities can receive federal funding.

The biggest accomplishment from their perspective is going to be the deregulation, said Clare McCannof the left-leaning New America. All of that will add to the amount of time it takes to put some accountability back into the system.

Biden, in his higher education plan, promised to undo many of DeVos changes, stopping colleges from profiteering off students. He plans to reinstate Obama-era rules that tie a college's receipt of federal money in part to graduates' salaries and debt levels.

Kamala Harris, Bidens vice president, sued for-profit Corinthian Colleges when she was Californias attorney general for making false advertisements to students. The system of colleges closed in 2015 after the Department of Educationrestricted its access to federal money for allegedly lying about its job placement rates.

Student loans: Court fight over debts of former Corinthian Colleges students

DeVos issued a statement Tuesday defending her decisions on rolling back rules on Title IX and "reforming accreditation and other heretofore burdensome requirements and regulations." She criticized Biden's plan for cutting the cost of college and forgiving student debt.

"Weve heard shrill calls to 'cancel,'to 'forgive,'to 'make it all free.'Any innocuous label out there cant obfuscate what it really is: wrong," the statement read. "What we do next in education policy and in public policy writ large will either break our already fragile economy, or it will unleash an age of achievement and prosperity the likes of which weve never seen."

President-elect Biden has yet to name his choice for DeVos replacement. The former vice president, whose candidacy was endorsed by teachers unions such as the National Education Association, said that person will have experience as a public school educator.

One of the biggest tasks facing the incoming secretary will be related to colleges: the nations $1.6 trillion student loan portfolio. In terms of touching individuals, the Department of Educations biggest role is making and collecting student loans, Hartle said.

The Education Department has frozen interest rates on federally held student loans and paused borrowers' payments. This pandemic-era hiatus is slated to expire at the end of the month. The next secretary may have to handle the resumption of paymentsif the pause isnt extended before Biden takes office. (Politico reported late Tuesday thatDeVos' department instructed student loan servicers to wait at least aweek before sending bills to borrowers, which could suggest a further extension.)

DeVos deepened partisan divides within federal education policy. Many of the leading Democratic candidates for president in this years primary election, including Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, distanced themselves from charter schools a key issue for DeVos. Historically, some Democrats including PresidentBill Clinton and Obama supported charter schools, especially as an option for disadvantaged families in urban areas.

Given those divisions and Bidens commitment to unifying the country, some experts suspect DeVos successor will be agnostic on the subject of charters.

DeVos legacy will probably be one of rollbacks rather than steps forward. The secretary may be fine with that. Last month, in an interview with Reason, DeVos questioned the necessity of the department she was tasked with managing.

"This building," she said,"has caused more problems than it solved."

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Betsy DeVos vowed to change American education. For the most part, she didnt. - USA TODAY