Which Ministers can make it over Bechers Brook?

Ahead of the expected Cabinet re-shuffle tomorrow, Harry McGee gives his predictions for the likely winners and losers. Video: Daniel O' Connor

Predicting the outcome of Enda Kenny and Joan Burtons deliberations on the Cabinet is like asking a person who doesnt know the difference between a mule and a pony to predict the outcome of the Grand National.

Of course, that doesnt stop any of the paid-up political anoraks from doing it or from taking a flutter.

From the moment this new Coalition was formed in 2011, those close to Kenny were saying that all his instincts were very like Bertie Aherns when it came to reshuffles - minimalistic, cautious, reluctant to sack loyal colleagues. Kennys approach was said to have been tempered by his experience of the 1980s when an attempted shake-up by then taoiseach Garret FitzGerald backfired badly.

But then circumstances change and sometimes the political realities - or the political facts on the ground, to use the more fashionable phrase - dictate a new approach. Hence, the view that has formed that the reshuffle will be more extensive that we would have thought a few years ago.

In some ways, that thinking may be influenced by the Labour side of Government where there will be more action. The reasons for that, naturally enough, is that the party has a new leader and there is no stronger means of leaving your mark as a new leader than to clear out the old guard and replace them with those you rate most highly.

So three of the five seats on the Labour side will change. But how many will change on the Fine Gael side?

Well, the departure of Alan Shatter - and his replacement by Charlie Flanagan - counts as one. And Enda Kenny will effect a further two changes at most... but possibly only one.

If there is one, it means nobody in Cabinet is getting fired (remember the score cards?) and Jimmy Deenihan - a veteran in a junior ministry - will retain a position. The only vacancy will arise from Phil Hogan going to Europe.

In that scenario, it will be odds on for Paschal Donohoe to be promoted and get the rejigged Arts and Heritage department, renamed Defence and Public Works possibly, with Deenihan moving elsewhere.

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Which Ministers can make it over Bechers Brook?