S. Sudan Faces Bigger Obstacle

With a fragile cease fire in place, South Sudanese look at how to salvage their delicate democracy

South Sudanese refugees walk at a border gate in Joda, in the Jableen locality in Sudan's White Nile State, after arriving from the South Sudanese war zones of Malakal and al-Rank, January 16, 2014.

The temporary truce signed on Thursday by South Sudanese politicians may have halted hostilities that, according to United Nations and humanitarianestimates, have resulted in the deaths of more than 10,000 people and displaced half a million more since fighting began in December, but asustainable peace remains far off, diplomats andexperts say. The country can fallapart; its sort of half unglued now. Even if theres a ceasefire, whoknows if thats going to stick as it doesnt resolve any the underliningproblems, said Tom McDonald, who worked on Sudan issues as U.S.ambassador to Zimbabwe during the Clinton presidency. A lot is at stake because we have invested time anddiplomatic capital and lots of money there to stand up this country.

Two and a half years ago, the world celebrated the birth of the new nationin the hope that dividing Sudan would end the violence in the war-torncountry. The U.S. poured billions of dollars into helping build South Sudans government and ministries. So how, in such ashort amount of time and with so much support from the internationalcommunity, could things fall apart?

Some, like Eric Reeves, a professor of Englishat Smith College, and an expert on Sudan and South Sudan, say the U.S. and the West expected too much too quickly from the South Sudanese and that the UN should have overseen a period of transition while a constitution was written. John Prendergast of the Enough Project, a nonprofitanti-genocide organization that works in South Sudan, lays the blame more squarely on the Obama Administration. There was a gulffrom the last special envoy last spring until the new special envoy [was appointed]in the fall, Prendergast says. During that period, already existingproblems were incubating and exploding to the surface. The U.S. didnthave that envoy and team to work that issue as diligently as needed.

The last U.S. Special Envoy to Sudan and South Sudan, Princeton Lyman,stepped down on March 22, 2013, and his replacement, Donald Booth, wasntnamed until August 28. During that five-month lag, South SudanesePresident Salva Kiir made what his opponents call an authoritarian powergrab, firing and imprisoning 11 members of his cabinet. Kiir accused themof attempting to orchestrate a coup with his then Vice President Riek Machar, who escaped arrest in July.

National Security Council spokesman Caitlin Hayden disputes both Reeves and Prendergasts assessments, arguing that the U.S. is by far the biggest presence and donor in South Sudan. The U.S. Government, up to and including President Obama, has remained deeply engaged throughout 2013, even as we worked to identify a new special envoy, Hayden said. President Obama sent Kiir a letter of concern in March, and senior U.S. officials met with their South Sudanese counterparts in April and May in Washington andin the South Sudanese capitol of Juba. Secretary of State John Kerry met with Kiir in Ethiopia in May and spoke with him by phone in July.

Moreover,whilethe country is young, it has ancient prejudices that burst to the surface at every turn. Although only two of the 11 cabinet detainees were ethnically Nuer,Machars Nuer tribe rallied against Kiirs Dinka tribe in response to the arrests. Some Dinka soldiers killed civilians who couldnt identifythemselves in the Dinka language, according to U.N. reports. Nuer rebels killedtwo U.N. peacekeepers who were protecting Dinka refugees. Thatprompted the U.N. Security Council to send in an additional 5,500 peacekeepers, bringing its total force in South Sudan to 12,500, the largest in the world after the peacekeeping mission in the DemocraticRepublic of Congo. This began as a political struggle, but it becameethnic within the first day or two, Reeves says. After decadesof war [with Sudan], there is a simmering tribalism that bursts throughfor almost any reason.

For the past month, Machar has resisted reconciliation, insisting that Kiir first release his cabinet allies. The ceasefire doesnt determine what will happen withthe detainees, though the South Sudanese government says it envisions amnesty for them after they go through trials. Our position is there should be no preconditions to cessation of hostilities, a State Department official told TIME, speaking on condition of anonymity. But at the same time Machar has a point that any long-term agreement relies on a meaningful political dialogue and they cant have that unless those detainees are at the table.

Reeves says that with so much mistrust between Machar, Kiir and the rest of thecabinet, reforming the government and writing a constitution protectingminorities is going to be a challenge. The question is if were seeing acrescendo or descendo, Reeves says. The rebels are people with a lot ofgrievances with the government. They are not looking to Machar forleadership. I doubt he can control even a third of the rebels. This is thebeginning of the really hard part and that is to get a wider militarystand-down by all groups.

Read more:
S. Sudan Faces Bigger Obstacle