Den Tandt: Harper mulls cabinet shuffle — who's getting the axe?

"And what is so rare a day in June?" wrote the poet James Russell Lowell. "Then, if ever, come perfect days." Except in Ottawa, where the fairest month is primarily a time to speculate about the entrails of power. Who's up, who's down and who's out in the cabinet shuffle expected before the fall session?

This season, as in the past, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is holding his cards preternaturally close to his vest. However, he is expected to put a new face on the government beginning in early August with a deputy-minister shuffle, then continuing in late August or September at the ministerial level.

Conservative insiders expect this remix will be substantial, as the government seeks to re-calibrate following a first year in majority during which it was repeatedly buffeted by controversy, ministerial missteps and scandal. Though the final roster will remain known only to the PM and perhaps his wife and chief of staff until shortly before it is unveiled, a few names recur.

- Top dogs:

Jim Flaherty is not expected to budge from Finance, as he remains the mainstay of the Tories' economics team. Three other names top Conservatives' lists of senior ministers who've consistently outperformed and have earned their pick of jobs: Jason Kenney at Immigration, John Baird at Foreign Affairs and James Moore at Heritage.

Any one of these three could be airlifted into Defence to clean house there. The drawback would be that each is helping the government appreciably now in a key portfolio. Kenney is two-thirds of the way through his overhaul of immigration. Baird is hitting his stride as a foreign minister, having spent the better part of the past year outgrowing his old attack-dog persona. Moore has managed to ride herd on the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation without a major upheaval for a Conservative, a feat of ineffable dark magic.

- Rising stars:

The acknowledged up-and-comers, in no particular order, are Chris Alexander, Ajax-Pickering; Michelle Rempel, Calgary-Centre-North; Candice Hoeppner, Portage-Lisgar; Kellie Leitch, Simcoe-Grey; and James Rajotte, Edmonton-Leduc.

Rempel is bright, a good communicator and holds Jim Prentice's former seat. Leitch, a pediatric surgeon and frequent pinch-hitter in Question Period, holds the seat once held by Helena Guergis. Rajotte, respected in caucus and chair of the Commons finance committee, has long been deemed a shoo-in for promotion, but has been held back by the preponderance of strong Alberta MPs, including the PM, already in cabinet.

- On the banana peel:

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Den Tandt: Harper mulls cabinet shuffle — who's getting the axe?