False dawn – THE WEEK

In the 2017 Gujarat assembly polls, the Congress gained 16 seats, bringing its tally to 77 against the BJPs 99. It seemed like the grand old party could become a strong opposition in the BJPs model state. But, it was not to be. In July 2018, senior Congress leader and MLA Kunvarji Bavaliya defected to the BJP. He was made a cabinet minister within hours and won the bypoll in December.

In February and March 2019, four more Congress MLAs joined the BJP. One of them, Jawahar Chavda, got a cabinet berth. The BJP won all four seats in the bypolls; three of the winners were former Congress MLAs. (The fourth was not given a ticket by the BJP.) In March 2020, five Congress MLAs resigned, leaving it with 68 seats against the BJPs 103.

The Rajya Sabha elections, which were scheduled for March 26, were deferred because of the Covid-19 health emergency, with the new date to be announced after a review on March 31. This has given the Congress valuable time to keep its legislators together. As things stand, the assembly has 175 members, and 36 first-preference votes are needed to win each of the four vacant seats.

This means that the Congress needs 72 MLAs to ensure that both its candidates win and the BJP, with three candidates, needs 108 MLAs. The scenario indicates that cross-voting is highly likely. The Congress has packed off its remaining MLAs to Rajasthan, where it is in power. It was reminiscent of the 2017 Rajya Sabha polls when Congress president Sonia Gandhis confidant Ahmed Patel contested.

The MLAs were then taken to Karnataka. It did not prevent cross-voting, but Patel prevailed. Perhaps taking courage from this previous coup, the party has put on a brave face this time, too. But, it is evident that there are bigger issues for the partys state unit to worry about. There is a lot of unrest and frustration in Gujarat Congress and the party leadership has done little to quell these issues.

According to a youth leader who did not wish to be named, Good party leaders are often unused for reasons best known to senior party leaders. He added that the situation was made worse by senior leaders only thinking about their own communities and alleged that the party is practically leaderless in Gujarat as president Amit Chavda was a dummy of former state unit president Bharatsinh Solanki, son of former Gujarat chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki.

Bharatsinh Solanki allegedly pressured the party high command into giving him one of the two Rajya Sabha seats that the party is contesting. The party had already announced former Indian Premier League chief Rajeev Shukla and national party spokesperson Shaktisinh Gohil, who is from Gujarat, as its candidates. But, since Solanki had the support of a good number of party MLAs, the central leadership did not want to risk them deserting the party like in Madhya Pradesh. Shukla stepped aside, citing party organisational responsibilities, and Solanki got his wish.

As it played out, this arm-twisting by Solanki may have led to the BJP announcing three candidates instead of two. Highly placed sources confirmed to THE WEEK that a deal had been struck between the BJP and the Congress that the saffron party would not put up a third candidate if Shukla, who is Union minister Ravi Shankar Prasads brother-in-law, was contesting. But, Shuklas replacement by Solanki voided this arrangement and the BJP announced former Congress stalwart and Patidar leader Narhari Amin as its third candidate.

The mobilisation that had happened in the partys state unit before the 2017 assembly elections and the gains from the encouraging result seem to be well and truly lost. There is not a single binding force within the party organisation in Gujarat. All the wrongs are with the Congress, said Vishnu Pandya, a right wing ideologue. May it be the leadership, organisation or workers. This is true all over the country. Gujarat is merely a part [of the problem]. According to him, it was the time for the Congress to implement [corrective measures], not introspect.

In fact, it is said that the situation in the partys state unit has been such that its own leaders have driven out some MLAs. What is even more worrying is that there are plenty of leaders who are looking for a good option or the right time to desert. These are those who feel that they could be sidelined if they defect to the BJP. They have also been unable to generate the funds needed to float a new party. Manish Doshi, the partys state spokesperson, admitted that there was a dire need for consultation and coordination. Former MLA Siddharth Patel said there was high level of insecurity among partyworkers.

While the Congress alleges that its MLAs are being bought, it could not take precautions against such situations. Congress leader Arjun Modhwadia had said that the BJP has made buying MLAs the new normal; BJP spokesperson Bharat Pandya denied the charge. The Congresss failure to keep its flock together has wasted the efforts made by former party president Rahul Gandhi to motivate the rank and file during the 2017 election campaign. Like Congress leader Narendra Rawat said, The future of the Congress is bright... but we are not ready.

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False dawn - THE WEEK