Examining the changing Heisman Trophy landscape; more mail

Florida State QB Jameis Winston was the second straight redshirt freshman to win the Heisman Trophy.

Rich Graessle/Icon SMI

In light of your outpouring of questions in response to last week's call to action, I figured why wait the extra week for another Mailbag?

Hi Stewart, since you're in need of football-related questions, here's one: Do you think there's a clear preseason Heisman Trophy candidate this year, other than Jameis Winston? Marcus Mariota seems to be a logical choice, but I also think that Auburn's Nick Marshall and perhaps Georgia's Todd Gurley could have stellar seasons. Plus, I just don't think Winston will be as good without the arsenal of receivers he had last year, namely Kelvin Benjamin. -- RJ, Portland, Ore.

Now that we've seen two straight redshirt freshmen (academic sophomores) break through and win the Heisman Trophy, is it inevitable that a true freshman will win the award soon? -- Matt Farrell, New Albany, Ohio

I hate to break it to you, but there's no such thing as a preseason Heisman favorite anymore. We'll keep putting out watch lists, sure, but a player no longer needs preseason recognition to claim the prize. Three of the past five winners -- Cam Newton (2010), Johnny Manziel ('12) and Winston ('13) -- had not played for their team the year before they won the trophy. Alabama's Mark Ingram ('09) was a backup the year before he won. Baylor's Robert Griffin III ('11) had name recognition, but he wasn't on many short lists heading into the season, and he still beat out a guy, Andrew Luck, who was about as overwhelming a preseason frontrunner as you could find.

And repeating is almost impossible. New wide receivers or not, one thing fans can say with near certainty right now is that if Florida State is anything less than 13-0 again entering Heisman weekend this fall, Winston will not hoist a second trophy. Just ask Manziel, whose passing stats all improved considerably in 2013 (save for four extra interceptions), but he ran less, lost twice as many games and, thus, finished a distant fifth in Heisman voting.

ELLIS: Which redshirt freshmen are poised to break out in the 2014 season?

I'm not yet ready to say that a preseason dark horse will start winning the Heisman every year. Mariota, Marshall and Gurley all have excellent chances. Ditto for Ohio State's Braxton Miller, Baylor's Bryce Petty, UCLA's Brett Hundley, Alabama's T.J. Yeldon and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, among others. But now, more than ever, the Heisman is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately award. Mariota seemed like he had taken command of the race last season, but as soon as Oregon suffered its first loss against Stanford on Nov. 7, he was done. Conversely, Tre Mason did not garner a sniff of consideration until his 304-yard rushing explosion in the SEC title game on Dec. 7. So, in some ways, preseason hype works against a candidate. It gives him an early leg up, but as soon as he suffers a setback, voters knock him off the throne in favor of the latest flavor. It's hard to come back from that.

As for true freshmen, absolutely, one could win soon. That's especially the case given how many are starting and playing major roles for title contenders, as I wrote about in February. However, it's going to take an exceptionally rare talent now that the Heisman is such a quarterback-dominated award. Then-Oklahoma running back Adrian Peterson finished in second in 2004 when he rushed for 1,843 yards for a 12-0 team. Would that happen today? Or does the trophy have to go to a quarterback? If the latter, it becomes exponentially more difficult. The idea of a redshirt freshman like Manziel or Winston who had a full year (or more) in a system putting together a Heisman-worthy season is one thing. Yet even the most talented true freshmen starters, like USC's Matt Barkley in '09 or Penn State's Christian Hackenberg last year, generally don't have immediate, overwhelming success. Most likely it will be a running back for a playoff contender. Perhaps LSU's Leonard Fournette?

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Examining the changing Heisman Trophy landscape; more mail